Should we offer extensions to any of our starting pitchers, either now or in the offseason?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Means is already signed for 2024.

I don’t think so.  He signed a 2-year deal covering 2022-23, after he got hurt.  

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think so.  He signed a 2-year deal covering 2022-23, after he got hurt.  

2023 Contract Status: Signed thru 2023, 2 yrs/$5.93M (22-23)

Service Time (01/2023): 4.007  •  Arb Eligible: 2024  •   Free Agent: 2025

 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I don’t see this FO giving extensions to any pitcher, ever.  Too much risk for injury and poor use of limited assets.  I’m holding out hope Means will be worthy of a QO after next year.   

That's really where I'm at too.  Means as a QO would mean all sorts of things going really well!

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s interesting to note that Wells, irvin and Means all will be eligible for arbitration this winter.  Total cost $9 - 11 mm?

I missed that Means has an extra year after his 2-year contract.  That changes the math a bit.  What does history say about agreements for players coming off an injury in their final arb year?  

Irvin will probably be around $2m.  That's only a fit if he's optionable or he's a BP arm.

[StottyByNature]

Extensions should really be reserved for premium position players.  Pitchers are just much more volatile and prone to injury.  Means is the only one I'd consider and it wouldn't be for more than a year or two on what would likely be a team-friendly contract.

All extension money should be reserved for the guys coming up like Henderson, Holliday, etc.  We should be following the mold of buying out a couple of years of free agency.  I probably wouldn't do it with Adley given he is a catcher.  

We can't make the same mistake that we did with Chris Davis (his money  should have been used on Machado.). To be honest, though, I'm not sure the guys that write the checks are as forward-thinking as our front office.  My main concern is that Elias feels handcuffed and moves on to a team with looser purse strings.

[Just Regular]

It is true Elias would have to tender Means Arb3.    I guess that could get dicey if he looks bad....'24 Means Arb3 maybe goes to something like '22 Lyles 1/7.

Someone will have to remind me if postseason results get to be counted in Arb.    It could be a fun hearing if they can't, he is rusty in September, and then good in October.

400 I don't see a Baysox starter listed yet, but if four days rest is enough between Turn 1 and Turn 2 ramping up I think Means could be up tonight.

[Frobby]

I think Alex Cobb may be a good comp for considering what Means will earn in Arb 3.  Cobb missed all of his Arb 1 season after agreeing to a $4 mm salary, then re-upped at $4 mm for Arb 2 and got into 5 starts at the end of the year.  He then agreed to $4.2 mm for Arb 3.   

In Means’ case, he got hurt in Arb 1 after 
2 starts while his Arb hearing was pending (an odd circumstance resulting from the labor stoppage in spring 2022).  He then agreed to get $2.95 mm for 2022 and 2.975 for 2023.   He’ll hopefully get into some September games, same as Cobb.  If the Cobb pattern holds, Means would then get a raise or maybe $200 k this winter, to $3.2 mm.  That’s certainly not prohibitive and I can’t imagine him being non-tendered almost regardless of how he looks in September.  

In case anyone’s wondering, Cobb had made 81 starts with an ERA+ of 118 when he had his surgery.  Means had made 65 starts (70 appearances) with an ERA+ of 121.   
 

[Billy F-Face3]

If this is a thought experiment, then sure, I would think about looking into extending Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez as a possibility.

But with that said, I have a paranoia about Grayson getting injured so I would probably be very cautious and conservative in exploring that idea. 

So that basically leaves Kyle Bradish as the one starting pitcher I'd be most serious about with exploring the possibility of an extension.

[wildcard]

On 8/15/2023 at 4:13 PM, emmett16 said:

2023 Contract Status: Signed thru 2023, 2 yrs/$5.93M (22-23)

Service Time (01/2023): 4.007  •  Arb Eligible: 2024  •   Free Agent: 2025

 

Means is under team control but he has not signed a contract for 2024.

Edited August 17, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think so.  He signed a 2-year deal covering 2022-23, after he got hurt.  

Yep. I knew he signed his contract in 2022..didn’t realize he still didn’t have a salary for 2022. I don’t know how he was playing?  

Edited August 15, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. I knew he signed his contract in 2022..didn’t realize he still didn’t have a salary for 2022. I don’t know how he was playing?  

I assume he was being paid whatever the Orioles’ Arb offer had been, until he case was decided or settled.  Normally the cases are heard in spring training, but the labor stoppage messed that up. 

[Since1984]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. I knew he signed his contract in 2022..didn’t realize he still didn’t have a salary for 2022. I don’t know how he was playing?  

Thought Means avoided arbitration for 2023 by signing through 2024. Will dig on January 2023.

The Rays have signed multiple pitchers early on through their first two years of FA. Blake Snell, David Price come Tom mind. Wonder if this history is now frowned upon by agents since they get traded, etc

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I assume he was being paid whatever the Orioles’ Arb offer had been, until he case was decided or settled.  Normally the cases are heard in spring training, but the labor stoppage messed that up. 

Ahhh right. I forgot about that.

Thanks for the correction.

[Since1984]

Per MLB trade rumors he signed through 2023. For some reason cannot paste the link. Frobby’s right

 

[foxfield]

Why don’t small market teams offer extensions that pay for performance?

let’s say for example Grayson:  You offer a 10 year extension at $10MM/year.  That’s a $100MM  

He gets:

$500,000 per win.

$1,000,000 per post season win

$2,000,000 for hitting 150 innings

$1,000,000 for CY or MVP or All-Star or series MVP 

20 Game winner at 180 innings with 3 post season wins as a CY, AllStar and WS MVP would earn him 27MM. And of course he would  have earned every penny. But his base would only be 10MM which is certainly affordable. That offer would also guarantee him 100Mm. 
 

Sorry if off topic

Edited August 16, 2023 by foxfield

[EddeeEddee]

Unless Flaherty and Gibson suddenly outpitch everyone else on the team, I don't see any reason to lock up any of our pitchers this offseason.  There will be a number of good free agents available -- many out of our price range but many good ones hopefully within it too. 

Flaherty and Gibson could be one of those guys, but there's too much baseball left this season first.

And, outside of John Means, none of the younger guys are close enough to free agency to merit discussing extensions yet.  Next season will show whether anyone, not just the Orioles, will want to offer a multi-year deal to Means

Also, Elias maybe could swing a trade for a good, young starter under control for a couple seasons or more.