Win the Division this week.

[TopGunnar]

I think we can win the division this week. We’re 3.5 games up on the Rays( our only division competition). We have 2 more against Angels, 3 with Boston and 3 with St. Louis. 6-2, even 7-1 is actually likely. Meanwhile, the Rays play Boston twice who just beat them and then 4 against the hot Mariners. 
 

If we can take a 4.5/5 game lead into Tampa, it would be nearly impossible for them to catch us. 

[Frobby]

I wouldn’t say 7-1 is likely at all.  6-2 would be great but I’m not counting on it.   Bottom line, the division title will still be heavily contested when Tampa rolls into town on Sept. 14.   

[tntoriole]

27 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

I think we can win the division this week. We’re 3.5 games up on the Rays( our only division competition). We have 2 more against Angels, 3 with Boston and 3 with St. Louis. 6-2, even 7-1 is actually likely. Meanwhile, the Rays play Boston twice who just beat them and then 4 against the hot Mariners. 
 

If we can take a 4.5/5 game lead into Tampa, it would be nearly impossible for them to catch us. 

They are coming to us. 

[tntoriole]

Anything is possible, but I was in Memorial Stadium that last game of the 1982 season, Oct 3.  

We were 3 games behind and 4 game set against Brewers of course.  And won 3, but then they beat Jim Palmer and we lost 5-2 and the division and no wild cards etc. 

Earl Weaver’s first retirement too.. amazing post on field spontaneously 

 

Of course, this is not a season ending series though very crucial.  But if we are 3games up, them sweeping us 4 in a row at Camden would be a tip your cap deal. 

[Sports Guy]

I still say we win the division by 5+ games.

[Morgan423]

You are very much overlooking Boston.  True, they've only been a .500 team since the break, but they've also been exceptionally streaky.

So are you going to get good Boston or bad Boston?  They are on a small win streak now, including beating the Rays yesterday, so who really knows?  But they aren't a pushover team.

 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I still say we win the division by 5+ games.

If you insist…

[Aristotelian]

We're not going to clinch this week, but we already have a 77% chance to win the division. In addition to the 3.5 game lead, we also own the tie breaker. They would need to sweep us in our four game series to get it back. For all intents and purposes we have a 4.5 game lead. 

I'd put the median clinch date right now at around 9/27 at home vs the Nats, but the outcome of the Rays series could push that up or back by a couple games depending on what happens. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

You are very much overlooking Boston.  True, they've only been a .500 team since the break, but they've also been exceptionally streaky.

So are you going to get good Boston or bad Boston?  They are on a small win streak now, including beating the Rays yesterday, so who really knows?  But they aren't a pushover team.

 

We are only 3-3 against Boston.  Enough said.  (Cue the caveats about Ryan McKenna.)

[banks703]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I still say we win the division by 5+ games.

I think you're right .. if it happens to play out in the O's favor. I don't think that it's going to be close. The O's are either going to win by more than a handful of games or they're going to lose it by more than a handful of games. Currently up 4 games in the loss column, if the season ended today, they'd win the division by 4 games.

I made a long post yesterday about the remaining games for every team in the division which I thought showed just how much the O's control their own destiny.

With Tampa getting the Saux for two more then Seattle for four, then onto Minnesota in Minnesota (who is playing well right now) before coming to Camden Yards, the Rays probably need to go at least 7 - 2 over their next nine games to keep the division within striking distance. If they go just 5-4 over these next nine and the O's 5 - 3 over the next eight games, Tampa loses half a game to the O's. If the O's manage to go 6 - 2 over the next eight and the Rays only go that 5 - 4, the O's pick up another 1 1/2 games on them. So even if Tampa were to sweep the O's in OPACY during that four game set, the O's would still be up a game in the loss column.

I truly believe that the division goes through Baltimore (which has to go through Boston).

Boston, Tampa, the Jays and O's records against teams .500 or better:

The O's are 44 - 32 

The Rays are 38 - 33

The Jays are 38 - 42

The Saux are 37 - 39

Remaining Home/Away Games:

Orioles 13/12

Rays 12/12

Jays 16/8

Saux 12/12

While the O's end the season with two at home against the Gnats then four against Boston, the Rays go to the Saux for two then to the Jays for three.. both teams could and likely will be still fighting for a playoff spot. 

Boston is the key and I think they ultimately decide who wins the division between the O's and Rays. 

Given Toronto's remaining schedule, I will not be shocked to see them overtake the Rays for 2nd place... if everything plays out the way that I think it will for the O's. I've got the O's going 15 - 10 to end the season with Tampa going 13 - 11 to end their season, essentially splitting all of their remaining series outside of sweeping the lowly Angels. Pushing the O's to six games better when all is said and done. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I think you're right .. if it happens to play out in the O's favor. I don't think that it's going to be close. The O's are either going to win by more than a handful of games or they're going to lose it by more than a handful of games. Currently up 4 games in the loss column, if the season ended today, they'd win the division by 4 games.

I made a long post yesterday about the remaining games for every team in the division which I thought showed just how much the O's control their own destiny.

With Tampa getting the Saux for two more then Seattle for four, then onto Minnesota in Minnesota (who is playing well right now) before coming to Camden Yards, the Rays probably need to go at least 7 - 2 over their next nine games to keep the division within striking distance. If they go just 5-4 over these next nine and the O's 5 - 3 over the next eight games, Tampa loses half a game to the O's. If the O's manage to go 6 - 2 over the next eight and the Rays only go that 5 - 4, the O's pick up another 1 1/2 games on them. So even if Tampa were to sweep the O's in OPACY during that four game set, the O's would still be up a game in the loss column.

I truly believe that the division goes through Baltimore (which has to go through Boston).

Boston, Tampa, the Jays and O's records against teams .500 or better:

The O's are 44 - 32 

The Rays are 38 - 33

The Jays are 38 - 42

The Saux are 37 - 39

Remaining Home/Away Games:

Orioles 13/12

Rays 12/12

Jays 16/8

Saux 12/12

While the O's end the season with two at home against the Gnats then four against Boston, the Rays go to the Saux for two then to the Jays for three.. both teams could and likely will be still fighting for a playoff spot. 

Boston is the key and I think they ultimately decide who wins the division between the O's and Rays. 

Given Toronto's remaining schedule, I will not be shocked to see them overtake the Rays for 2nd place... if everything plays out the way that I think it will for the O's. I've got the O's going 15 - 10 to end the season with Tampa going 13 - 11 to end their season, essentially splitting all of their remaining series outside of sweeping the lowly Angels. Pushing the O's to six games better when all is said and done. 

All of this matters and I’m not trying to poo poo what you are saying but honestly, it comes down to me that I just think all of these injuries and the Franco situation are going to catch up to Tampa at some point. They are still going to coast into the playoffs…win 90+ games, etc..but I think they fade just enough to where this becomes more of an easy division win than one that comes down to the final few days of the season.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Mooreisbetter27]

I posted this in the other Win the Division thread - 

Don't look now, but Mariners have lost 3 of 4.  According to some, they're now a bad team.

Red Sox concern me a little tbh.  They hit the lights out of the ball.  They're also the only team to play us to a stalemate so far (3-3), albeit very early in the season before we really hit our stride.  But I wouldn't underestimate them.  

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

All of this matters and I’m not trying to poo poo what you are saying but honestly, it comes down to me that I just think all of these injuries and the Franco situation are going to catch up to Tampa at some point. They are still going to coast into the playoffs…win 90+ games, etc..but I think they fade just enough to where this becomes more of an easy division win than one that comes down to the final few days of the season.

Oh, for sure.. that's absolutely a factor. That's why I don't see them playing better than one win (two in the w/l) better than .500 the rest of the way. The gauntlet that Tampa has these next nine games before coming to OPACY is either going to completely deflate them or they're going to magically come out of it with little or no marks to show for it and I just think that they can't keep up the pace with (as you mentioned) all of the injuries and personnel issues. The Suax for two more, Seattle for four then @ Minnesota is as tough a stretch as any of the contending teams will have and I just don't see them coming out of it better than 5 - 4. Of course, they are the Rays so anything can happen but if the O's take care of business as I hope and expect them to do so, I think they do end the season up five or six games for the division title.

I'm a little torn on this though as I will be beyond joyous should this happen but it's a little bittersweet to earn a division title under such circumstances. I would rather beat teams at their best. Yes, every team goes through injury issues (Felix, John Means, Ramon, Ant's ongoing back, Mountcastle, etc.) but the competitor in me would rather beat them at their best.

That said... I'll take the division title anyway that they can get it. This is only the beginning for the O's. 

[Moose Milligan]

Isn't the OP the dude that thinks we should sweep every series and considers it a tragedy when we don't?

[glenn__davis]

As far as I'm concerned we're 4-2 against the Red Sox this year.  I'll die on this hill.