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Fangraphs article on why their projections hate us


Hallas

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19 minutes ago, dystopia said:

In the minors? As in, against minor league hitters? Come on man. I know you're better than that.

For me, the striking thing about Cano’s season was his command was way better than before.  He walked 1.6 batters per 9.  His lowest rate in the minors was 3.1.   I don’t think you could have forecast that success in the majors based on his minor league history.  ZiPS projected him at 4.5 BB/9.   

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13 hours ago, dystopia said:

In the minors? As in, against minor league hitters? Come on man. I know you're better than that.

Yea, I moved beyond "minor league performances are meaningless" in the 1980s. When put in context of competitive level and player experience minor league numbers can be more significant than old MLB data.

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