Mountcastle/Hays Trade Value

[casadeozo]

I know there are other threads going about next year but I was curious about specific value we could expect from either of our two free swinging position players who I feel are the least useful going forward.

mountcastle has obviously been trending downward now for a few years so curious what the board thinks is a reasonable return for him?

Hays was an all star which I would think would help on a return but his defense is an asset. But enough to keep him?

Edited October 11, 2023 by casadeozo

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I know there are other threads going about next year but I was curious about specific value we could expect from either of our two free swinging position players who I feel are the least useful going forward.

mountcastle has obviously been trending downward now for a few years so curious what the board thinks is a reasonable return for him?

Hays was an all star which I would think would help on a return but his defense is an asset. But enough to keep him?

Mountcastle has obviously been trending down for a few years?

His 2023 OPS+ was higher than his career number and his WAR/162 was higher in 2023 than 2022.  His walk rate was up and his K rate was down.

I don't see how you can look at his 2022 season and think it was superior to his 2023 season.

 

I don't think any team in MLB is stupid enough to trade more for Hays because he made an All-Star game.

[sportsfan8703]

We need to keep our RH position players.  Lefties and the Wall is a thing.  Botchy won't be the only manager to exploit that.  Gotta build our team around our ball park.  

[casadeozo]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle has obviously been trending down for a few years?

His 2023 OPS+ was higher than his career number and his WAR/162 was higher in 2023 than 2022.  His walk rate was up and his K rate was down.

I don't see how you can look at his 2022 season and think it was superior to his 2023 season.

 

I don't think any team in MLB is stupid enough to trade more for Hays because he made an All-Star game.

You dont think having been an All Star selection has any intrinsic value?

[baltfan]

I would hope for a few prospects in the 10-20 range, maybe a low minors lottery ticket.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, casadeozo said:

You dont think having been an All Star selection has any intrinsic value?

I do not.

I think there is value in the performance that warranted the selection but not in the selection itself.

[casadeozo]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle has obviously been trending down for a few years?

His 2023 OPS+ was higher than his career number and his WAR/162 was higher in 2023 than 2022.  His walk rate was up and his K rate was down.

I don't see how you can look at his 2022 season and think it was superior to his 2023 season.

 

I don't think any team in MLB is stupid enough to trade more for Hays because he made an All-Star game.

Hes basically a platoon 1st baseman which obviously we can improve upon.

[dzorange]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I would hope for a few prospects in the 10-20 range, maybe a low minors lottery ticket.

Over/under… Hays or Mountcastle bring back a return similar to what Mancini did

Edited October 11, 2023 by dzorange

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I would take some solid bullpen depth or high ceiling (but perhaps not high ranked) prospect in return for either of them. Hays and Mountcastle are solid players, but they aren't stars.

[casadeozo]

1 minute ago, dzorange said:

Over/under… Hays or Mountcastle bring back a return similar to what Mancini did

Right thats the premise of the thread, is the Mancini return realistic?

Mancini was a pending FA while having a comparable statistical year to Hays.

I would think with the extra years of service time we could do better.

Edited October 11, 2023 by casadeozo

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Hes basically a platoon 1st baseman which obviously we can improve upon.

He's not tho.

This season he had issues with his platoon splits but there is no real reason to think that's going to be the case going forward, since he didn't have such severe splits in the past.  He actually hit right handed pitching better in 2022 and 2020.

 

Edit- I do agree that the O's could improve their production at first but at what cost?

Right now he's more of a guy and not a stud.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Right thats the premise of the thread, is the Mancini return realistic?

I would think that each would bring back more in return than a Mancini rental did

[MCO'sFan]

26 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I know there are other threads going about next year but I was curious about specific value we could expect from either of our two free swinging position players who I feel are the least useful going forward.

mountcastle has obviously been trending downward now for a few years so curious what the board thinks is a reasonable return for him?

Hays was an all star which I would think would help on a return but his defense is an asset. But enough to keep him?

The problem with both these players is that they are both 'guys" but not "dudes." Meaning they are tweeners. They are too good/pricy for rebuilding clubs and not difference makers for contending clubs. I think some BP help is all you can expect and maybe a low level lottery ticket.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

You dont think having been an All Star selection has any intrinsic value?

No, not at all. Zero. Teams all have smart people and robust analytics departments, they have zero need to place value on popularity contests and manager selections and that-guy-from-the-A's-because-every-team-has-one.

If anything a marginal All Star selection might make a player slightly less valuable if they have an All Star bonus clause in their contract that gets them paid more for the same production.

[dzorange]

19 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Right thats the premise of the thread, is the Mancini return realistic?

Mancini was a pending FA while having a comparable statistical year to Hays.

I would think with the extra years of service time we could do better.

Teams overpay at the deadline, and I think the O's did well with the return they got for Mancini.

I don't know how many teams would be "buying" Hays. It would be more the O's shopping him. Would rebuilding teams give up assets for him and would a contender view Hays' production as a need? I really don't know what the return would be. I'm kind of pessimistic on it but I also think he's the guy the O's should move.

I think Mountcastle would bring back a larger return than Hays with his extra year of service and higher ceiling with the bat.

Edited October 11, 2023 by dzorange