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Now that the bar has been raised, what’s your definition of a successful season in 2024?


Frobby

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100 win team? No it isn't just making the playoffs. Or winning the division. When you are one of the best teams in baseball it is about winning a WS and anything short of that just isn't good enough. I mean this is 5 yrs in the making right? Didn't suffer for a spot in the ALCS did you? Nope. Of course, the shackles that are around Elias will prevent that from ever happening and them getting over the hump, so enjoy being tortured year after year as the key pieces fade into bolivian and get closer to leaving town. Because that is what elite homegrown players do, leave town. 

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So the Braves and Dodgers didn't have a successful season?

I can't agree with the mindset that only one established good team can have a successful season each year.

 

Honestly, if the Braves lose, I think both they and the Dodgers will think their season was unsuccessful.  People say the playoffs is a crapshoot but that's a copout.  Just because you can't figure out what the secret sauce is doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.  

For us though, I think so long as they win a playoff series next year, it will be viewed positively.  2025 is World Series or bust.

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1.  Make the playoffs again.  - Nope, not by itself.  This is A goal, but not enough.

2.  Win the division title again.  - Nope, not by itself.  A goal, but not enough.

3.  Win 100+ games again. - Nope, not by itself.  A goal, but not enough.

4.  Win at least one playoff game. - Nope, not by itself.  A goal, but not enough.

5.  Win an ALDS series. - THIS.  If we can do better than this year, then that's a success.  Clearly I'd want to win it all.  But if we repeated this year (100+ wins, playoffs, division title, but knocked out in our first round) I'd be a bit disappointed that we didn't take a step forward.  

6.  Make it to the World Series - For sure!

7.  Win the World Series - No doubt!

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1a.  AL East champs.

1b.  With significant ML development from our young studs (Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Coby, McD, Hall).

 

2.  I don't really know how to measure the odds of post-season success.  Gotta think Vegas and crowd-sourcing is better than the FGs of the world.  But I'd like to see us increase our odds even if it doesn't come to fruition.  And I think we have the horses to do that.  Need some BP help especially.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Intellectually, I completely understand that the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot.  That said, if we exactly replicated this year and got swept in the postseason again, I don’t think I’d feel satisfied. I’d be far more bummed out than I was this year. 

Just look at the Dodgers...

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Which would you prefer:

1.  Repeating as AL East champs, but losing in the ALDS

2.  Only getting a wildcard, but winning the wild card round and then the ALDS.

Thats a bit of a tough one for me.  I put a lot of stock in how a team does over 162 games.  I think winning the season long marathon is a bigger accomplishment than getting hot for 5-8 games.  But on the other hand, losing so soon after winning the marathon leaves a pretty bitter taste in the mouth.   Winning a couple of playoff series and extending the fun in October would be pretty sweet, even if it is the lesser accomplishment in a way.  

Since we already accomplished no. 1 this year, I’d probably prefer no. 2 next year even if our record was noticeably worse (say 90 wins).   
 

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10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Intellectually, I completely understand that the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot.  That said, if we exactly replicated this year and got swept in the postseason again, I don’t think I’d feel satisfied. I’d be far more bummed out than I was this year. 

Agreed, the O's will at least have to make it to the ALCS for next year to be a "success".  I don't even care of they win the division as long as they get back to the playoffs.

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The Orioles have now lost 8 consecutive playoff games counting the Royals ALCS sweep and the Britton wildcard game. The minimum I want to be happy with the season is a playoff berth AND at least one close/competitive playoff series.

This year was amazing but it was miserable getting blown out with only a lead for a half inning of the ALDS. I had very little fun in the playoffs. I realize the playoffs are a crapshoot but I want to have at least one fun series with some highs in addition to the lows, even if they don’t advance. We cannot become the Twins 18-game playoff losing streak part 2. 

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I think winning the division again would be a successful season regardless how the playoffs turned out.  I do think it is a crapshoot.  That said I think a second start in the playoffs by Grayson Rodriguez will fair better than this year’s did.  I think the moment won’t be quite as big.  If the Orioles take one of the first two games I believe this narrative would be much different.  I also think our offense will be better next year.  Mullins just seemed not 100%. Replace Jackson Holliday for any infielder not named Gunnar and I think you are better.  Gunnar is going to be even better.  He is on the “Cal Ripken track”. Rookie of the Year then MVP.  The closer didn’t really matter this playoff series but I will feel better with whoever was a closer the majority of the season will be next year available for the playoffs.  

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The April schedule is soft.    One of the growths I hope to see is a strong enough start where playoff odds rest in the high 90's all season long.

There could be aesthetic growth even in a division title + ALDS loss scenario if they "lose better".     If another very strong Rays team has to go through a wildcard and beats us in a series where the guys acquit themselves well, that'd be progress.    The 2012 Orioles taking Sabathia to the end, for example.

Adley, Gunnar, Grayson and Holliday are watching ownership the same as all of us.     2024 success could also be giving them some actions to boost their hopes the organization is serious about competing for a championship, and not just triangulating to maximize efficiency.    It can eat into your spirit if the roster stays rounded out with waiver bait while you try to beat the world's best, including Hall of Famers being paid representative wages.

If Elias has foreknowledge of "reality" in which he'll never be able to afford market price for a 4-win player, I'd hope he navigates the farm system to a generally exhausted spot by Samuel Basallo's walk year.

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