Outfield Surplus?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Miller got hammered in the second half. As a young pitcher, I would expect some progression. Funny people talk about wanting Miller but not Cease...

-Cease was money in Sept/Oct

-Only 2 years older.

-Has proven to be able to get big league hitter out.

Just sayin'

Huge cost and service time difference.

[E-D-D-I-E]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huge cost and service time difference.

True. But Miller is the FAR bigger risk. He has never done it. I am just playing devil's advocate here. I just want a good starter added to our rotation. I don't trust Means at all and I am not sure Wells is best suited in the ROT.

Edited November 6, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

True. But Miller is the FAR bigger risk. He has never done it. I am just playing devil's advocate here. I just want a good starter added to our rotation. I don't trust Means at all and I am not sure Wells is best suited in the ROT.

The reason you get that young guy, whether it be Miller or Woo or whoever, is because you want to increase the upside and bring in a cheap, cost controlled guy.

The Os have some potential starters in the system but right now, none of them are close to being a real factor at the ML level. You have, hopefully, Bradish and GRod for years to come. That’s it beyond 2024. Maybe you want to keep Means but you don’t know that yet. Maybe Hall or McDermott or Povich take major leaps in 2024 and become a long term factor but you don’t know that now.

You need more young controllable pitching talent in an organization that won’t pay for it and doesn’t draft it. It’s that simple.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Because they are a competitive team with a weak offense.  Plus they have 7 SP options ready (plus Ray).  The #5 guy doesn't have to be a stud.  So it makes sense to speculate Miller or Hancock (or even Woo).

If I were the Seattle GM, I'd sign an OF type FA and hold off on a trade until they have a better idea of Ray's progress.  So maybe more involved at the trade deadline.  

FWIW - Hancock's injury was said to be a grade-1 strain.  It doesn't seem like an issue.  He's got more upside than Miller IMO.

In recent years the only two young MLB ready starting pitchers I can think of who were traded were Jesus Luzardo and Mackenzie Gore. Gore was traded for a top prospect and Luzardo was traded for an aging veteran. The latter trade still confuses me seems like an outlier (A's gonna A). I think it's a very rare for a team to part with a young arm, unless they've fallen out of favor with the organization. Also, Seattle was able to land Teoscar Hernandez (considered a better player than Santander by most going into the 2023 season) and only had to give up a bullpen arm. There is zero change a deal headlined by Santander or Hays is gettting us any of their young arms. "Maybe" if we offered up something like Westberg, Cowser or Kjerstad, but how often do you see one young stud prospect swapped for another? Not very often. 

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

Which makes that trade proposal very unrealistic. 

Because the Mariner's were able to trade a bullpen arm for Teoscar Hernandez last season? If that's the benchmark then there's no chance a deal headlined by Santander or Hays is getting us one of their young much more valuable SPs. 

[HakunaSakata]

17 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Miller got hammered in the second half. As a young pitcher, I would expect some progression. Funny people talk about wanting Miller but not Cease...

-Cease was money in Sept/Oct

-Only 2 years older.

-Has proven to be able to get big league hitter out.

Just sayin'

The difference is you'd be paying for what Miller will hopefully do in the future as opposed to what Cease has done in the past. In looking at his track record, that 2022 season certainly looks like the outlier although I'm sure the White Sox will probably want their trade partner to pay for it. Not that I don't have concerns about Miller. Mostly about his pitch mix (or lack there of). 

[E-D-D-I-E]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The reason you get that young guy, whether it be Miller or Woo or whoever, is because you want to increase the upside and bring in a cheap, cost controlled guy.

The Os have some potential starters in the system but right now, none of them are close to being a real factor at the ML level. You have, hopefully, Bradish and GRod for years to come. That’s it beyond 2024. Maybe you want to keep Means but you don’t know that yet. Maybe Hall or McDermott or Povich take major leaps in 2024 and become a long term factor but you don’t know that now.

You need more young controllable pitching talent in an organization that won’t pay for it and doesn’t draft it. It’s that simple.

I agree. I totally think our rotation needs some help and young controllable guy would be perfect.. Some points to consider.

1) If Cease was a 1 year acquisition, I would 100% agree with your comments above. 

2) IF Miller is bad, the years are irrelevant. He is Unproven and may not even be a #4 this year.

3) Means is scary to me and I believe anything over 20 starts is a windfall.

4) IF Cease is better and pitches like a true #2 lets say. You have 2 years of Cease which gives you time for McDermott/Povich to improve. (I am assuming Hall stays in the pen. IMO, he could be really really good there. I very high on Hall)

 

 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

In recent years the only two young MLB ready starting pitchers I can think of who were traded were Jesus Luzardo and Mackenzie Gore. Gore was traded for a top prospect and Luzardo was traded for an aging veteran. The latter trade still confuses me seems like an outlier (A's gonna A). I think it's a very rare for a team to part with a young arm, unless they've fallen out of favor with the organization. Also, Seattle was able to land Teoscar Hernandez (considered a better player than Santander by most going into the 2023 season) and only had to give up a bullpen arm. There is zero change a deal headlined by Santander or Hays is gettting us any of their young arms. "Maybe" if we offered up something like Westberg, Cowser or Kjerstad, but how often do you see one young stud prospect swapped for another? Not very often. 

Not a lot of teams have recently had a surplus of pitching and a need for offense, so it’s not really relevant that it hasn’t happened much.

There has been a lot of talk about Seattle looking for hitting and being willing to move pitching to get it. That dates back to the deadline when there were talks between Seattle and St Louis.

[OriolesMagic83]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The reason you get that young guy, whether it be Miller or Woo or whoever, is because you want to increase the upside and bring in a cheap, cost controlled guy.

The Os have some potential starters in the system but right now, none of them are close to being a real factor at the ML level. You have, hopefully, Bradish and GRod for years to come. That’s it beyond 2024. Maybe you want to keep Means but you don’t know that yet. Maybe Hall or McDermott or Povich take major leaps in 2024 and become a long term factor but you don’t know that now.

You need more young controllable pitching talent in an organization that won’t pay for it and doesn’t draft it. It’s that simple.

You can't just leave out Kremer.  He's the O's probable #4 starter next year and is controlled for I believe 5 more years{?}  He might not have the upside of Bradish or GRod but came thru in a lot of high pressure games for the O's and often gave more than the five and dive back end starters often do. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

You can't just leave out Kremer.  He's the O's probable #4 starter next year and is controlled for I believe 5 more years{?}  He might not have the upside of Bradish or GRod but came thru in a lot of high pressure games for the O's and often gave more than the five and dive back end starters often do. 

I absolutely can leave him out, especially since I think he should be traded this offseason.

And even if he’s back, I still don’t view him as a starter beyond 2024. It’s not that I don’t think he can be good enough. He’s definitely a starter at this level. I just think we can and should do better for various reasons.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

You can't just leave out Kremer.  He's the O's probable #4 starter next year and is controlled for I believe 5 more years{?}  He might not have the upside of Bradish or GRod but came thru in a lot of high pressure games for the O's and often gave more than the five and dive back end starters often do. 

4 more.

[Aristotelian]

Miller's numbers aren't better than Kremer's. I wasn't super impressed by his stuff when we faced him. Feels like a "grass is greener" move that wouldn't really improve the team aside from depth. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Miller's numbers aren't better than Kremer's. I wasn't super impressed by his stuff when we faced him. Feels like a "grass is greener" move that wouldn't really improve the team aside from depth. 

Miller wouldn’t be my target but the idea that his numbers weren’t better in 2023 is extremely irrelevant.

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Miller wouldn’t be my target but the idea that his numbers weren’t better in 2023 is extremely irrelevant.

How is 130+ innings of MLB experience extremely irrelevant? He's got other stuff on his resume but that is a weird thing to say.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

How is 130+ innings of MLB experience extremely irrelevant? He's got other stuff on his resume but that is a weird thing to say.

When you are acquiring a young talented player, you are acquiring them for what you think they will become, not necessarily for what they are today. 
 

The idea that he didn’t put up better numbers than a more established starter who is 2.5 years older isn’t relevant. 
 

And btw, fWAR gave Miller 1.9 and Kremer 1.5 and Kremer pitched more. K rates were the same. Walk rate greatly favored Miller. Miller had the better HR rate.

Miller’s FIP was 3.98….Kremer was 4.51.

So your narrative isn’t even true, at least not with all stats.