Cease vs everyone else

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

I've just come to accept that this thread isn't about Cease, it's a meandering exploration of the OH trade zeitgeist. 

That sums it up perfectly.

[SteveA]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hate this thread.  I check the board, I see that it's hot and I'm like "Oh wow, cool, maybe there's some new information about a Cease trade going down."

It's been this way practically every day for over a month and I still haven't learned.  

I stopped looking at this thread completely a week or two ago.   I only saw this post of yours on the side preview pane and clicked on it to respond.

I know I'm missing out on a main discussion point on here, but I imagine there is so much repetition and people saying the same thing over and over again.   Just doesn't seem worth the time investment.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I think you should look more closely at Nick’s career, he was a 2.5-3 war player for about 5 years after an early outlier peak then became a 1.5-2 war guy for a while. You’re getting  2.5-3 war seasons from Hays right now.
 

So unless you’re expecting Cowser to put up multiple 7 war seasons, then the Markakis comp is actually pretty close to Hays’ production!

You act as if Markakis only had one good season when he also had a 4+ rWAR season to go along with his 7+ rWAR season, which Hays has not and most likely never will.

There is also the matter of what to expect from Hays going forward. Take a look at Hays' underlying metrics on Baseball Savant if you want a sneak peek at what that might look like.

Spoiler Alert- it's not very encouraging.

[Moose Milligan]

Bowden via the Athletic:  https://theathletic.com/5192108/2024/01/10/mlb-offseason-trades-free-agents-teams/

 

Quote

Orioles–White Sox trade proposal: Does Jordan Westburg, either Colton Cowser or Heston Kjerstad, Cade Povich, Ramón Urías and a lower-level prospect or two land Dylan Cease? Would you make that trade as Orioles GM and as White Sox GM? — Michael J.

Chicago’s asking price for Cease has been unrealistic and Orioles GM Mike Elias has done the right thing by continually saying no. However, the White Sox will eventually lower their price to a more realistic package and at that point Baltimore will still be able to outbid the other teams in contention thanks to their strong depth. I think your trade idea/proposal is pretty close to what a final deal should look like.

Can you explain the extreme interest in Cease? He was 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA last year, so how valuable is he? Was last year a fluke? I know he has two more years of team control, but Cease seems like a crapshoot to me. Also, because of those controllable years, the White Sox want serious prospects for him. Why is that reasonable? — James P.

In 2021, Cease went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 32 starts and struck out a league-leading 12.3 batters per nine innings. In 2022, he was 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP over 32 starts while punching out 11.1 batters per nine and finishing second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. This past year he went backward, going 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 33 starts while striking out 214, the third straight year in which he’s struck out 200 or more.

Cease’s fastball is 95-97 mph and he throws an 86 mph slider, an 80 mph curveball and a 74 mph changeup. Opposing batters hit .216 against the slider. He has Cy Young-winning upside if he can put it all together, he’s only 28 years old and, yes, the team that acquires him would control him for two more years. Several teams, led by the Yankees and Orioles, are pursuing Cease and I would be too for the right prospect package. If the Yankees get him, they’d slot him after Gerrit Cole in the rotation. If the Orioles get him, they’d place him after Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez.

 

[Mooreisbetter27]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hate this thread.  I check the board, I see that it's hot and I'm like "Oh wow, cool, maybe there's some new information about a Cease trade going down."

It's been this way practically every day for over a month and I still haven't learned.  

100 % same.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Bowden via the Athletic:  https://theathletic.com/5192108/2024/01/10/mlb-offseason-trades-free-agents-teams/

 

 

The White Sox will get nothing close to that rumored deal from us or anyone else.

If Bowden thinks that gets it done, and the White Sox are currently being "unreasonable", what in the f are they asking for now?

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Bowden via the Athletic:  https://theathletic.com/5192108/2024/01/10/mlb-offseason-trades-free-agents-teams/

 

 

Westburg, Cowser/Kjerstad, Povich, Urias and a 5th prospect. Still sounds way too expensive to me, but I'm not expecting Bowden to have a high knowledge of the players involved.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

The White Sox will get nothing close to that rumored deal from us or anyone else.

If Bowden thinks that gets it done, and the White Sox are currently being "unreasonable", what in the f are they asking for now?

3 premium prospects…in this deal, they essentially get 2 premium prospects, Povich, a real ML contributor and 1-2 other players? 

it’s crazy.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

21 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I've just come to accept that this thread isn't about Cease, it's a meandering exploration of the OH trade zeitgeist.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Pickles said:

The White Sox will get nothing close to that rumored deal from us or anyone else.

If Bowden thinks that gets it done, and the White Sox are currently being "unreasonable", what in the f are they asking for now?

Getz can pick one and suck it.  

That's why I think Cease starts the season on the White Sox, no one's budging.  Elias and the Orioles certainly aren't and I don't think any of the other teams out there are suddenly going to cave to trading their best prospect or two for Cease.  He's good, but he's not THAT good.  

Getz can roll into the 2024 season with Cease as his OD starter.  While it probably makes more sense for him to trade Cease, it appears as if he's comfortable keeping him, too.

If a Cease trade actually does happen, we'll immediately know who caved by the prospects going back to Chicago.  If they're highly regarded, highly ranked, whichever team on the other side caved.  If it's more guys that are mid-tier and it's more quantity than quality, Getz came around.

[Spy Fox]

That Bowden suggestion sounds more like what Cease would have been worth before '23. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Jordan Westburg, either Colton Cowser or Heston Kjerstad, Cade Povich, Ramón Urías and a lower-level prospect or two

No.

Hell no, in fact.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Westburg, Cowser/Kjerstad, Povich, Urias and a 5th prospect. Still sounds way too expensive to me, but I'm not expecting Bowden to have a high knowledge of the players involved.

Westburg and Cowser is a lot to give up, but that is the trade I've been saying gets the deal done.  If they need a pitcher then Ambruester.  Urias would make no sense for us to trade, or for the CWS to want.  It's always easy to just tack on an additional prospect to hypothetical deals.  Sure TT Bowens it is.  

Bowden is onto something with Westburg and Cowser being the framework of a Cease deal.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That Bowden suggestion sounds more like what Cease would have been worth before '23. 

Well, he would have been worth a top 20 guy plus another top 50 guy and then some.

So, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz/Norby, Povich and a lottery ticket.

Something like that.

CY candidate with 3 years of control?  That’s worth a lot.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Westburg and Cowser is a lot to give up, but that is the trade I've been saying gets the deal done.  If they need a pitcher then Ambruester.  Urias would make no sense for us to trade, or for the CWS to want.  It's always easy to just tack on an additional prospect to hypothetical deals.  Sure TT Bowens it is.  

Bowden is onto something with Westburg and Cowser being the framework of a Cease deal.  

Bowden didn't float the framework. A random commenter floated it.