Cease vs everyone else

[ThisIsBirdland]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Fully agree.  I see Ortiz as a guy who is probably somewhat divisive in terms of front office evaluation.  I’m sure we all agree he’s a quality prospect, but I’ve read differing scouting reports on what his offensive ceiling really is.  And I just don’t buy that he’s a guy who could put up .800 OPS’s in the majors.  Maybe he proves me wrong, but I still maintain a more realistic ceiling is league average hitter.  And with his glove that’s valuable…if that outcome actually happens.  Again, he could end being a plus glove 70 wRC+ hitter and be someone you are constantly looking to upgrade from.  That’s the risk vs. reward dilemma that comes with prospects and why they aren’t worth as much as many fans realize.

Pretty sure this has already been stated, but this goes both ways in any trade. Cease could post a 1.41 WHIP again or just 12 quality starts when he’s potentially being bought as an ace. Not sure anyone is going to prove that one side has THAT much more risk exposure in this hypothetical trade, which probably means it’s reasonably fair. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ezequiel Tovar was one of the better defensive SS’s last year and was only worth 1.6 wins because of a 70 wRC+.  Is Joey Ortiz really expected to be a top 3 three defensive SS?  A win floor from defense alone is pretty massive.

Anthony Volpe just won the GG.  Joey Ortiz defensive reputation, as prospects, far exceeds that of Anthony Volpe.  So, the answer is yes, he’s expected to be a top 3 defensive SS.  You quote Baseball America.  Don’t you like this one?

Ortiz has two true carrying tools to help him solidify his major league future: double-plus defensive traits and elite bat-to-ball skills

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Ezequiel Tovar was one of the better defensive SS’s last year and was only worth 1.6 wins because of a 70 wRC+.  Is Joey Ortiz really expected to be a top 3 three defensive SS?  A win floor from defense alone is pretty massive.

He certainly could be a top 3 guy. He has an elite glove and is likely a GG contender at 3 different IF positions.

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not trying to spin anything.  You took a glowing report on Ortiz and focused on one line and said it made you nervous.  There are certainly things we can find about Cease that make me nervous.  
 

 

I called out the one line because it was summarizing him overall as a prospect and it downplayed his potential impact (which is somewhat concerning).  That being said, I can’t say enough that I like Joey Ortiz as a prospect and that I’d love to have him in a Cease trade.  I just don’t view him quite as high as publications & many here do and therefore would not accept him as a centerpiece.  That’s all I have been arguing this whole time.

But again, when discussing risk, we’re talking about an established major league starter vs. a prospect.  Prospects in nature are unsure things and outcomes can vary greatly.  Nothing wrong with highlighting the risks of Cease, but it’s a stretch treat those as the same as concerns with an unproven prospect.

[Chicago White Sox]

49 minutes ago, 24fps said:

MLB's latest prospect rankings have Ortiz at exactly 50 and Fangraphs had him at 66 before last season when he did really well at AAA.  He's now had about 500 PA's in AAA (2022-2023) and his line is in the neighborhood of .330/.385/.530/.915.  That's not bad especially with an age difference of -2 years compared to his peers.  I would be surprised if he's below 50 in any credible ranking system by the time the 2024 season begins.

We're still talking about Ortiz as the second piece in a Cease trade right?

Yes, that would still be my proposal.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I called out the one line because it was summarizing him overall as a prospect and it downplayed his potential impact (which is somewhat concerning).  That being said, I can’t say enough that I like Joey Ortiz as a prospect and that I’d love to have him in a Cease trade.  I just don’t view him quite as high as publications & many here do and therefore would not accept him as a centerpiece.  That’s all I have been arguing this whole time.

But again, when discussing risk, we’re talking about an established major league starter vs. a prospect.  Prospects in nature are unsure things and outcomes can vary greatly.  Nothing wrong with highlighting the risks of Cease, but it’s a stretch treat those as the same as concerns with an unproven prospect.

I’ve stated that I think Cowser + Ortiz for Cease is a fair package.  I just wouldn’t do it.  Call it prospect hugging if you like.  My gut feeling is that we would regret that deal in two years.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Got it.  You like to go with BA when it suits your purposes but with your own personal view when it doesn’t.   Their last updated list was in September.  Hard to see what happened between September and February that is going to drop him 20 spots but I guess we’ll see.  MLB pipeline has him at #50.   
 

Keith Law had him at #36 on 7/31/23 when he did a top 60.  
 

Aram Leighton of justbaseball in October had him at #43.

Are you actually criticizing me for having my own opinion?  I called a comment in a third party evaluation of Garcia to be a “slight” concern.  Not sure where the alleged hypocrisy is coming into play.

[Chicago White Sox]

45 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Pretty sure this has already been stated, but this goes both ways in any trade. Cease could post a 1.41 WHIP again or just 12 quality starts when he’s potentially being bought as an ace. Not sure anyone is going to prove that one side has THAT much more risk exposure in this hypothetical trade, which probably means it’s reasonably fair. 

Cease just has an xERA 0.25 points below Bradish despite that WHIP.  The risk of getting two cheap years of a #3 starter while paying the price of a #2 starter is not the same level of risk of a non-elite prospect is my point.  The bust rate on 50 FV prospects is massive.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are you actually criticizing me for having my own opinion?  I called a comment in a third party evaluation of Garcia to be a “slight” concern.  Not sure where the alleged hypocrisy is coming into play.

I’m criticizing your opinion and what you base it on.   Ortiz is ranked from #36 (Law), #50 (MLB), and #63 (BA).   Somehow, you decide he’s 80-100 on some kind of personal evaluation scale?

You use a quote from BA to voice your concern but then poo poo their rating and suggest they’ll downgrade him in their next update.   
 

You said you thought he was an 80-100 guy because of his age.  Pretty sure those three publications know how old Joey Ortiz is.  Should we go with your personal evaluation or a consensus of publications who have built up some amount of credibility in this arena?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

50 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Anthony Volpe just won the GG.  Joey Ortiz defensive reputation, as prospects, far exceeds that of Anthony Volpe.  So, the answer is yes, he’s expected to be a top 3 defensive SS.  You quote Baseball America.  Don’t you like this one?

Ortiz has two true carrying tools to help him solidify his major league future: double-plus defensive traits and elite bat-to-ball skills

I’m aware he has a really good glove, but expecting a top three defensive SS is well beyond what I’ve typically read in regard to his defense.  BA had his defense at a 60 grade in their mid-season update and a 70 now.  I guess I’m skeptical that he’s suddenly a 70, but perhaps I’m totally wrong here.  Just haven’t seen anyone claim he has elite glove vs. just a plus one.

[Chicago White Sox]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’ve stated that I think Cowser + Ortiz for Cease is a fair package.  I just wouldn’t do it.  Call it prospect hugging if you like.  My gut feeling is that we would regret that deal in two years.

 

Then I guess we’re not really arguing anything

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m criticizing your opinion and what you base it on.   Ortiz is ranked from #36 (Law), #50 (MLB), and #63 (BA).   Somehow, you decide he’s 80-100 on some kind of personal evaluation scale?

You use a quote from BA to voice your concern but then poo poo their rating and suggest they’ll downgrade him in their next update.   
 

You said you thought he was an 80-100 guy because of his age.  Pretty sure those three publications know how old Joey Ortiz is.  Should we go with your personal evaluation or a consensus of publications who have built up some amount of credibility in this arena?

 

Some kind of personal scale?  I’m saying there are 80 or so prospects that I’d prefer over him based on how I value prospects. And where am I saying that you should go with my self evaluation?  I’m only sharing my personal opinion.  You too should form your own opinion.  I’m quite confused by your hostility and aggressiveness.

Also, when publications rank prospects what is their criteria for ordering them?  How do they account for ceiling vs. floor, age, positional scarcity, etc?  You seem to imply there is one set of guidelines they all go by.  If you can help explain, I’d love to better understand how they adjust for age vs. how I do.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think he’s going to put up a .800 OPS?  There were six qualified SS’s last year that exceeded that figure.  Quite the lofty expectation for a guy with below average power.

I don’t think anyone should reasonably expect an .800 OPS from Ortiz, nor does he need one to be a first division starting shortstop.  

Of the three projections I’ve seen for 2024, ZiPS has him at .662, Steamer at .720, Marcel at .716.  I tend to think the latter two are closer to the mark.   And that would be a decent starting point for a rookie.  Jeremy Pena has been worth 8.7 rWAR, 6.2 fWAR over two years with a .710 career OPS.
 

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m aware he has a really good glove, but expecting a top three defensive SS is well beyond what I’ve typically read in regard to his defense.  BA had his defense at a 60 grade in their mid-season update and a 70 now.  I guess I’m skeptical that he’s suddenly a 70, but perhaps I’m totally wrong here.  Just haven’t seen anyone claim he has elite glove vs. just a plus one.

Who do you consider the best defensive ML SS?   Good chance that plus(60) would rank pretty high.  Wander Franco was rated a 50 back in 2021.  Volpe a 50 before this season.  

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think anyone should reasonably expect an .800 OPS from Ortiz, nor does he need one to be a first division starting shortstop.  

Of the three projections I’ve seen for 2024, ZiPS has him at .662, Steamer at .720, Marcel at .716.  I tend to think the latter two are closer to the mark.   And that would be a decent starting point for a rookie.  Jeremy Pena has been worth 8.7 rWAR, 6.2 fWAR over two years with a .710 career OPS.
 

Good post.  You are a good dude Frobby and I appreciate the cordial & insightful interaction.