O's should address the problem they have....

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is not what either pitcher projects.   GRod was the #1 pitcher in the minors and found his control in the 2nd half.  No reason to believe he is going anywhere but up.   Bradish showed he is one the best starters in baseball last season.   That is how they project for 2024.

I am all for more quality pitching.   But its cost and has risk that coming with it.   Especially when the O's would give up prospects that would be a big part of their future.

 

Who projects?

Saw this earlier today.  2024 Steamer projections.

I'm not advocating this particular projection just showing one that doesn't agree with what you are suggesting.  If you'd like to show a projection that does agree with what you are saying, feel free.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Can_of_corn
added line.

[Sports Guy]

Another flip flop on this topic?  You are like a fish out of water.

Elias wants another starter. There’s a reason for that.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, oriole said:

Considering the lack of back end bullpen depth, Wells is better off in the bullpen for 2024. Same goes for Hall. 

The O’s have more prospects that are ready to make the jump than they have spots available. It’s time to use that depth to get a quality option in the rotation. Someone with control. Not a 1 or 2 year rental.

Relievers cost less than starters and they more of them.  I think the O's need to add relievers in addition to Martinez. 

Elias says he does not see a logjam.  He sees depth.

What starter are you suggesting is worth the long term contract he will get?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Another flip flop on this topic?  You are like a fish out of water.

Elias wants another starter. There’s a reason for that.

Let's see who he signs.  I am all for the best starter he gets.   But I think Nick Martinez is more where this ends up.  

[ChosenOne21]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you feel good about giving 3 years to Giolito or 5'9" Stroman at 33 or Wacha or Lugo.   There is risk in giving 3 year and 30m+ to pitchers.   Kind of locks the manager in to starting them even if they are in decline.

I'm okay with three years on Giolito or Stroman. Stroman doesn't have any red flags I could find except that his walk rate went up last year. FIP thinks he was better last year than the year before when his walk rate was lower though. I'm inclined to believe Giolito's last twelve starts were somewhat of an aberration, and I think our pitching development staff can get him back on track.

Wacha is in a similar position to Stroman with an elevated walk rate last year, but still good results. He's got less of a track record though. Wouldn't hate two years with an option.

Lugo's numbers look pretty good, but he's the oldest of the bunch and was only a dedicated starter for the first time since 2017 last year. I'd prefer not to go three years on him, but it wouldn't be the worst thing. Could probably be moved to the pen just fine if he can't start.

There's some risk there, but there's also risk relying on our current group to stay healthy and effective. Also note that Means is gone after next year, so we're going to have to find someone to replace him eventually.

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is not what either pitcher projects.   GRod was the #1 pitcher in the minors and found his control in the 2nd half.  No reason to believe he is going anywhere but up.   Bradish showed he is one the best starters in baseball last season.   That is how they project for 2024.

I am all for more quality pitching.   But its cost and has risk that coming with it.   Especially when the O's would give up prospects that would be a big part of their future.

 

There's plenty of reason to believe he won't improve on his second half next year. Sophomore slumps are real things that happen, he could get hurt, he hasn't been the picture of consistency in his career. The future is bright, but that doesn't mean he's going to be an ace next year.

Bradish was one of the best starters in baseball LAST SEASON. His track record is one mediocre year and one great year. I think he will be excellent, and could be a top pitcher again next year, but I think the safe bet is to project some regression.

[Aristotelian]

I would not be opposed to this. He seems to fit the profile of one of the better two years guys without having to go 3+. I was hoping Gray would fit due to his age but looks like he will get three or even four.  I don't love it but I wouldn't hate it

[backwardsk]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What do you have in mind?

Be competitive in the Sonny Gray market

Use position players to trade for the Mariners excess SP

Cease

Beiber

Guys likely to sign 1 year deals with higher upside than Nick Martinez like Severino and Montas.

Spencer Turnball.

 

 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm okay with three years on Giolito or Stroman. Stroman doesn't have any red flags I could find except that his walk rate went up last year. FIP thinks he was better last year than the year before when his walk rate was lower though. I'm inclined to believe Giolito's last twelve starts were somewhat of an aberration, and I think our pitching development staff can get him back on track.

Wacha is in a similar position to Stroman with an elevated walk rate last year, but still good results. He's got less of a track record though. Wouldn't hate two years with an option.

Lugo's numbers look pretty good, but he's the oldest of the bunch and was only a dedicated starter for the first time since 2017 last year. I'd prefer not to go three years on him, but it wouldn't be the worst thing. Could probably be moved to the pen just fine if he can't start.

There's some risk there, but there's also risk relying on our current group to stay healthy and effective. Also note that Means is gone after next year, so we're going to have to find someone to replace him eventually.

There's plenty of reason to believe he won't improve on his second half next year. Sophomore slumps are real things that happen, he could get hurt, he hasn't been the picture of consistency in his career. The future is bright, but that doesn't mean he's going to be an ace next year.

Bradish was one of the best starters in baseball LAST SEASON. His track record is one mediocre year and one great year. I think he will be excellent, and could be a top pitcher again next year, but I think the safe bet is to project some regression.

Its was a safe bet to project that the O's would regress after 83 wins.  And many did.  But they won 101.

[oriole]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Relievers cost less than starters and they more of them.  I think the O's need to add relievers in addition to Martinez. 

Elias says he does not see a logjam.  He sees depth.

What starter are you suggesting is worth the long term contract he will get?

Relievers are more volatile than starters, I just don’t think that should be a spot they put a lot of resources into. 
 

My personal take would be to trade for Gilbert from Seattle and sign Montgomery. Gilbert has 3 more years of control and we have the pieces to get him without hurting the big league club too much. Montgomery is very consistent, left handed, and has played in the AL East. He’ll be expensive, but anyone who says the O’s don’t have the room in payroll for it has been suckling the teet of John Angelos’ propaganda machine. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by oriole

[FlipTheBird]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How many teams have two #1 for the next 5 years like GRod and Bradish?

Neither of these players has established themselves as a No. 1 at this point in time. Both will very much be rotation pieces in 2024 and beyond, but neither has shown anything yet that suggests the organization should stand pat on starting pitching.

[Sports Guy]

We need 2 starters imo.

Kremer should be upgraded because we have the resources to do it and he’s not as good as he showed in 2023.

[oriole]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We need 2 starters imo.

Kremer should be upgraded because we have the resources to do it and he’s not as good as he showed in 2023.

Agree 100%. Kremer is a great 6th starter and he’d get a lot of starts over the course of the season. But there’s room for better so there’s no reason not to do it.

[ChosenOne21]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its was a safe bet to project that the O's would regress after 83 wins.  And many did.  But they won 101.

So what's your point? That the Orioles are usually/always going to do better than what would be prudent to predict?

And why is that exactly?

Look, I'm not saying you ARE wrong. I'm saying it would be good to sign a few pitchers in case you are.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Be competitive in the Sonny Gray market

Use position players to trade for the Mariners excess SP

Cease

Beiber

Guys likely to sign 1 year deals with higher upside than Nick Martinez like Severino and Montas.

Spencer Turnball.

 

 

Severino, Montas and Turnball are all coming off injuries.    Do you have any information that says they will have healthy seasons next year?

Gray's market seems white hot.  We saw what happen to the O's in that kind of market last year.

Cease and Bieber is going to cost 6 years of prospects that could help the O's.    I really don't see much of a surplus in prospects at this point.

I don't have a feel for what the Mariners would want.  But I bet it will not be cheap.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, wildcard said:

Do you have any information that says they will have healthy seasons next year?

Do you have any information that says Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Kremer and Wells will have healthy seasons next year?