John Means contract

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re wildly off base here on Means’ market value.  First of all, you need to realize that the first year of this, he’s under team control and probably not getting more than $3-4 mm in arbitration.  So wildcard is suggesting about 2/$31 mm for the two FA years.  For a guy who’s never thrown enough innings to qualify and can’t be expected to this year considering how little he’s thrown the last two years.

Your range of 4/$80 mm or 5/$90 mm boils down to 3/$76 mm or 4/$86 mm for the FA years.  Nobody is paying that to John Means.  

He absolutely could get that if he had a good year in 2024 but no one in the right mind would give that to him today.

[ChosenOne21]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re wildly off base here on Means’ market value.  First of all, you need to realize that the first year of this, he’s under team control and probably not getting more than $3-4 mm in arbitration.  So wildcard is suggesting about 2/$31 mm for the two FA years.  For a guy who’s never thrown enough innings to qualify and can’t be expected to this year considering how little he’s thrown the last two years.

Your range of 4/$80 mm or 5/$90 mm boils down to 3/$76 mm or 4/$86 mm for the FA years.  Nobody is paying that to John Means.  

If he throws 150-160 innings of 3.50-3.70 ERA ball, someone will pay him that. Look what Aaron Nola got for putting up two ERAs over 4.5 in the last three seasons. He's only a year younger than Means! And that was with a hometown discount.

Edited November 26, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

If he throws 150-160 innings of 3.50-3.70 ERA ball, someone will pay him that. Look what Aaron Nola got for putting up two ERAs over 4.5 in the last three seasons. He's only a year younger than Means! And that was with a hometown discount.

Aaron Nola is a year younger than Means and has thrown more than triple the number of innings Means has thrown in his career.  He’s thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title 7 years in a row, and often a lot more than that.   Means has never once thrown enough innings to qualify.   There’s no comparison between the two when it comes to reliability.   

[Jim'sKid26]

16 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

If he throws 150-160 innings of 3.50-3.70 ERA ball, someone will pay him that.

What are the chances he does that in 2024? I think it is highly unlikely. I genuinely hope that I am wrong because that would be an enormous benefit to the team, but he is very unlikely to be that durable or that effective. 

[Roll Tide]

It’s a pass for me …too many injuries 

[wildcard]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

  For a guy who’s never thrown enough innings to qualify and can’t be expected to this year considering how little he’s thrown the last two years.  

Elias/Hyde/Holt showed this year with GRod that they don't care about how many innings he pitched in 2023.   If he is pitching well they will keep sending him to the mound as a starter.  They will monitor him for fatigue but keep throwing him. 

[wildcard]

Means has pitched over 150 inning in three years that he was healthy.

2018    162.2 IP   AA/AAA/Majors

2019   155  IP  Rookie year with O's, All-Star,   2nd in ROY

2020  Covid year

2021   154.2 IP   A+/AA/AAA/Majors  Including 146 IP for the O's, No Hitter, Near perfect game except for dropped ball by catcher.

2022-2023   TJ surgery

If he is healthy in 2024 he will probably pitch 150 innings.

Edited November 26, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias/Hyde/Holt showed this year with GRod that they don't care about how many innings he pitched in 2023.   If he is pitching well they will keep sending him to the mound as a starter.  They will monitor him for fatigue but keep throwing him. 

I agree the O’s won’t arbitrarily limit his innings.  Especially if he’s not under contract beyond 2023.  Means has a track record of needing an IL stint here and there, so I’m not counting on 2024 being his first time throwing enough innings to qualify.   

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree the O’s won’t arbitrarily limit his innings.  Especially if he’s not under contract beyond 2023.  Means has a track record of needing an IL stint here and there, so I’m not counting on 2024 being his first time throwing enough innings to qualify.   

Who is talking about Means qualifying for the ERA title?  That is 162 IP.    I am saying 150 IP.   He is very valuable if he pitches 150 innings.

If Means could consistently pitch 162 innings he would be making over 20m/year.  I am saying 15mish/year.

Edited November 26, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who is talking about Means qualifying for the ERA title?  That is 162 IP.    I am saying 150 IP.   He is very valuable if he pitches 150 innings.

Jordan Lyles threw over 150 innings in 2023, was he very valuable?

 

 

If Means can't get his K rate up it will be difficult for him to be a value add even if he pitches 150 innings.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Jordan Lyles threw over 150 innings in 2023, was he very valuable?

 

 

If Means can't get his K rate up it will be difficult for him to be a value add even if he pitches 150 innings.

Means has a career 3.74 ERA.  Lyles career ERA is 5.24.  His ERA in 2023 was 6.28.

Talking to you is almost never productive.   You just argue.  You don't even try to make sense.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who is talking about Means qualifying for the ERA title?  That is 162 IP.    I am saying 150 IP.   He is very valuable if he pitches 150 innings.

If Means could consistently pitch 162 innings he would be making over 20m/year.  I am saying 15mish/year.

That could happen, though if there was a prop bet on 150 innings, I’d probably take the under.  It’s certainly far from out of the question that he’s around 150.  

But let’s say he does.  Do people think that teams are then going to offer him  4-5 years at $20 mm per season for years 32 through 35-36?   I don’t.  
 

[Just Regular]

John Means' ~350 IP from 2019-2021 were 47th MLB-wide, so perhaps equivalent to a sturdy #2 starter for a team in a 3-year span.     The 3.73 ERA was in the Top Half of qualified pitchers in those seasons.

Granted in that time like Jorge Lopez and Cole Irvin, his personal counting stats may have been boosted by virtue of playing on a team without many good options.

If he's a decent version of himself, I think he's got a shot at the Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker kind of contract.     

Apart from Kremer getting an A in "Kyle Gibson emulation" in 2023, Means' presence is another reason for me to shoot for upside with our money, even if it is a riskier play.     Before the TJ, some of what I believe helped Means to grow into the pitcher he became was a strong health report card.     He was learning even while giving up all the hits in the world to Eastern League batters.

[AnythingO's]

38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias/Hyde/Holt showed this year with GRod that they don't care about how many innings he pitched in 2023.   If he is pitching well they will keep sending him to the mound as a starter.  They will monitor him for fatigue but keep throwing him. 

WC I respect your enthusiasm but saying JM will "probably" pitch 150 innings is is bordering on fantasy. You said "if healthy" but that qualifier applies to every pitcher, every year. Did they not monitor Wells last year? Hyde kept pitching him until he crashed, yet again. You say they don't care about innings but Bradish only went from117 in 2022 to 168 and Grod went from 69 at AAA in 2022 to 163 combined. Means rehabbed for like 16 months and only got thru 24 innings before being shut down with a sore elbow. The likelihood of JM going from 24 to 150 innings is very low. Certainly too low to count on it in 2024 when you say Elias "is going for it".

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Means has a career 3.74 ERA.  Lyles career ERA is 5.24.  His ERA in 2023 was 6.28.

Talking to you is almost never productive.   You just argue.  You don't even try to make sense.

I attempt to engage and you ignore points that impact your position.

Are you saying that the K rate Means posted this last season isn't a concern?