Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Winter]

3 minutes ago, WietersCorner said:

Hah, I prefer to look at this against the Givens money so we spent about $8M more.

SO maybe Givens money + Fraziers and Gibsons is still at play 

[RVAOsFan]

5 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

So when is the presser at the warehouse? Will he do a caravan stop? 

Got about 3 weeks before the state locks the doors and turns off the lights so they should probably get it on the calendar. 

[Going Underground]

6 minutes ago, Winter said:

SO maybe Givens money + Fraziers and Gibsons is still at play 

Givens has an option for 2024  for $6 million. Don't think the Orioles are picking that up.

 

If Givens declines the option for 2024, he'll receive a $1 million buyout. If he exercises it and the Orioles decline, he'll be paid $2 million.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Teams wouldn't sac bunt against Bautista in extra innings because he was striking everyone out.  That's big.  

I like Kimbrel.  I hope we get this wrapped up soon.  He's the first big domino we need.  Elias can then pivot to the trade market for a reliever or two that has as at least one option.  You need two flexible spots in your 8 man pen at least.  That was the hidden value in Irvin last year.  

So I did some quick analysis and actually Kimbrel was not great when he came into the 10th inning with a runner on 2nd.

He allowed that runner to score in 4 of 6 games, and in two of the games he allowed multiple runs to score. In extra innings he won two, lost two, blew a save but got a no decision, and allowed a walk off hit but did not start the inning so run and loss went to the other pitcher.

So despite his ability to strike guys out, he was no Bautista who pitched in the 10th 5 times and only allowed he runner to score once. The other 4 times he pitched in his second inning or work and collected four wins. Then again, that's why he was reliever of the year.

[Going Underground]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Got about 3 weeks before the state locks the doors and turns off the lights so they should probably get it on the calendar. 

I guess that is why no Fanfest again next year. Padlocked stadium. 

[Satyr3206]

3 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Got about 3 weeks before the state locks the doors and turns off the lights so they should probably get it on the calendar. 

I used to do evictions in Baltimore. They can call me if they need any help.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So I did some quick analysis and actually Kimbrel was not great when he came into the 10th inning with a runner on 2nd.

He allowed that runner to score in 4 of 6 games, and in two of the games he allowed multiple runs to score. In extra innings he won two, lost two, blew a save but got a no decision, and allowed a walk off hit but did not start the inning so run and loss went to the other pitcher.

So despite his ability to strike guys out, he was no Bautista who pitched in the 10th 5 times and only allowed he runner to score once. The other 4 times he pitched in his second inning or work and collected four wins. Then again, that's why he was reliever of the year.

Yeah just going to have to hope we don't run into too many extra inning games, especially in away games. I also believe he's not been good in innings other than the 9th, like as a setup man, etc. 

So... yeah, it's gonna be a little bit dicey for sure. I think he's gonna be one of those guys where quietly he's mostly good, but he has enough rough outings where you're just never comfortable seeing him come in and he will drive a lot of fans nuts.

Overall, though, he should be solid. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by interloper

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What he did at 35 warrants a 1/10 or even a 1/12 contract in this market.

Thank you.  You're welcome. 

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I used to do evictions in Baltimore. They can call me if they need any help.

Luckily for you The Mountain is rehabbing, I would pass on that job for sure if he was in the building.

[clapdiddy]

7 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Givens has an option for 2024  for $6 million. Don't think the Orioles are picking that up.

 

If Givens declines the option for 2024, he'll receive a $1 million buyout. If he exercises it and the Orioles decline, he'll be paid $2 million.

He'd be foolish to decline that option.

[interloper]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

He'd be foolish to decline that option.

Forgot that existed. Ugh. Rough signing man. I mean not really, since it was only 1 year, but it's tough to get absolutely zeroooo out of the guy. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So I did some quick analysis and actually Kimbrel was not great when he came into the 10th inning with a runner on 2nd.

He allowed that runner to score in 4 of 6 games, and in two of the games he allowed multiple runs to score. In extra innings he won two, lost two, blew a save but got a no decision, and allowed a walk off hit but did not start the inning so run and loss went to the other pitcher.

So despite his ability to strike guys out, he was no Bautista who pitched in the 10th 5 times and only allowed he runner to score once. The other 4 times he pitched in his second inning or work and collected four wins. Then again, that's why he was reliever of the year.

No one, not even "I only pitch one inning Hader"  was going to replace Bautista.   I think I read that Clase had 12 blown saves last year.  Kind of makes you wonder if a couple of those 35 pitch two inning saves took their toll on The Mountain. 

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Givens has an option for 2024  for $6 million. Don't think the Orioles are picking that up.

 

If Givens declines the option for 2024, he'll receive a $1 million buyout. If he exercises it and the Orioles decline, he'll be paid $2 million.

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah just going to have to hope we don't run into too many extra inning games, especially in away games. I also believe he's not been good in innings other than the 9th, like as a setup man, etc. 

So... yeah, it's gonna be a little bit dicey for sure. I think he's gonna be one of those guys where quietly he's mostly good, but he has enough rough outings where you're just never comfortable seeing him come in and he will drive a lot of fans nuts.

Overall, though, he should be solid. 

He was better in saves situations vs non save situations, but he was pretty good over in all leverage situations, even being a little better in medium vs high leverage. 

One thing he does really well is pitch on back to back games. In 17 games where he had pitched the day before he held batters to a .179/.254/.304/.558 slash line.    

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

Yeah a pretty brutal waste of (not my) money. I do think they were scrambling a bit after Tate's injury was worse than anticipated. And I don't think anyone could have predicted THAT big of a faceplant from Givens. Not Elias' finest moment though, that's for sure.