Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

It’s all about the proper motivation.  When you think you’re right you do the research.

I always think I'm right. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anyone know anything about this guy named Burnes the Orioles were close to acquiring?

Yes, this thread has gone way off the rails.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The pick pales in comparison to an extra year of Holliday.  Do you agree or disagree?

Neither.

Depends on factors I can't know.

How did getting that extra year of Wieters work out?

I'd have rather had a pick.

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Neither.

Depends on factors I can't know.

How did getting that extra year of Wieters work out?

I'd have rather had a pick.

 

You’re incapable of having an opinion until we see how Hollidays career unfolds?      Weak.

[Can_of_corn]

Bah, someone deleted a comment before I could reply.

Hate when that happens.

[emmett16]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Bah, someone deleted a comment before I could reply.

Hate when that happens.

Yea.  Enough non-Burnes in this thread.  Maybe a Service Time thread is a better location.   Back to Burnes.  

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Sure.  But hes drastically underpaid.  Had they gamed his service time a little and he played out his 6 years, he’d be a FA after this year, would have made the same amount (or more) money to date and be in line for a 300+MM contract next year.  

He is drastically underpaid?  

Acuna has 5 years of service time under his belt. He would be property of the Braves for another season (2024) because of when they brought him up in 2018.   
 

So, through 2024, he will have made 55ishM plus whatever the prorated amount was in 2018.

Most players will get something like league min/league min/league min/4M/7M/12M

Just throwing out rough numbers.

Elite guys usually go league min 3 times, 6-8M, 12-15M, 18-25M..again, tough numbers but the general ballpark. (And this is assuming no super 2)

So, maybe they make 50 or so million on the high end. He got more than that. 
 

Now, Acuna would have been super 2 and he was paid like that. His first 2 years of the deal, he got paid double the league min. He went right into his arb 1 year at 5M in 2021 (which was his actual third year of service time). So, he got more than most players get and was a little more than elite guys get because he had the super 2.  In other words, he has not been underpaid at all. He basically was guaranteed the best case scenario.

Now, after this year, he basically signed for a 4/68 deal(and he is guaranteed 3/61 because of a buyout)..That is when he might be underpaid but that will also depend on his production, health, etc..he was really good in 2021 but only played 82 games. In 2022, by fWAR, he was worth 17.5M or basically what he will get in his FA years. 

I say this only to say, we don’t know if he’s underpaid yet. That can’t be judged until he hits the years where he would have become a FA had he not signed. So, look at 2025-2028. If those years are more like 2022, he won’t be underpaid. If they are more like most of his career, he will be severely underpaid but he will have 100M in his pocket and if he is still really good, he will still cash out a big deal at age 31.

 

 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Neither.

Depends on factors I can't know.

How did getting that extra year of Wieters work out?

I'd have rather had a pick.

 

Depends which year you’re talking about.  We have Wieters a QO after 2015, he took it, we made the playoffs that next year and he was a significant contributor.  Without him we might well have missed the playoffs.  He left the next season and with Wellington Castillo replacing Wieters the staff ERA ballooned by 3/4 of a run.  So yeah, I was glad we had Wieters in 2016.  2015 would have been his final year if he hadn’t accepted the QO,   So if you’re tss talking about that year, Wieters’ presence didn’t really matter.  

The drafting wasn’t very good in 2016, we used our 1st round pick and two second rounders on Cody Sedlock, Keegan Akin and Matthias Dietz.  So I’m not sure an extra pick would have gotten us anywhere.  We did at least pick up Austin Hays in the third round, the only player we chose in that draft who’s been worth more than 0.1 rWAR.

Of course, this front office has a much better track record on picks. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Depends which year you’re talking about.  We have Wieters a QO after 2015, he took it, we made the playoffs that next year and he was a significant contributor.  Without him we might well have missed the playoffs.  He left the next season and with Wellington Castillo replacing Wieters the staff ERA ballooned by 3/4 of a run.  So yeah, I was glad we had Wieters in 2016.  2015 would have been his final year if he hadn’t accepted the QO,   So if you’re tss talking about that year, Wieters’ presence didn’t really matter.  

The drafting wasn’t very good in 2016, we used our 1st round pick and two second rounders on Cody Sedlock, Keegan Akin and Matthias Dietz.  So I’m not sure an extra pick would have gotten us anywhere.  We did at least pick up Austin Hays in the third round, the only player we chose in that draft who’s been worth more than 0.1 rWAR.

Of course, this front office has a much better track record on picks. 
 

I was talking about 2015, 2016 was a separate one year deal.  He played 75 games in 2015, catching in 55.

I would have rather had a first round pick.

Just saying even with the top overall prospect, you don't know.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about 2015, 2016 was a separate one year deal.  He played 75 games in 2015, catching in 55.

I would have rather had a first round pick.

Just saying even with the top overall prospect, you don't know.

Just like you never know if the extension is the smart business move.

[clapdiddy]

So...how about that Corbin Burnes acquisition???

What do you expect from him this season?  I think that since he's tougher on lefties than righties historically, he may find Camden Yards very friendly to him.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

So...how about that Corbin Burnes acquisition???

What do you expect from him this season?  I think that since he's tougher on lefties than righties historically, he may find Camden Yards very friendly to him.

 

 

He's not, pretty close tho.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=burneco01&year=Career&t=p

[Just Regular]

Corbin Burnes - I didn't have in active memory his 2020 opened like Spencer Strider's 2022, with a few relief appearances in a year he ended up gathering Cy Young votes.

Burnes 2018-2020 reminds me of the Earl Weaver break them in as relievers kind of thing.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The only real disagreement I have with you is that potential ROY draft pick pales in comparison to an extra year of service time for Holliday.   I also think they’ll figure a way to get Mayo and Kjerstad up by mid year if not sooner.

As it stands now with O’Hearn on the team there is not a great deal of playing time for Kjerstad. Where will consistent ABs for Mayo come from? I’m not seeing it.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The only real disagreement I have with you is that potential ROY draft pick pales in comparison to an extra year of service time for Holliday.   I also think they’ll figure a way to get Mayo and Kjerstad up by mid year if not sooner.

As it stands now with O’Hearn on the team there is not a great deal of playing time for Kjerstad. Where will consistent ABs for Mayo come from? I’m not seeing it.