Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[RZNJ]

18 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Dan Duquette would be a fantastic talking head get for David Rubenstein or Ted Leonsis' MASN with higher production values.

 

I just heard DD interviewed by someone on a podcast.  First, he kept making the point of the foundation he left here and continued to interject that point whenever he could.   It’s somewhat true but it came across as awkward and defensive because he was only being asked about the new ownership group and the Burnes trade.  It’s been awhile since I listened to him but he did not sound like a smooth talker at all.  Monotone and stammering.

[Aristotelian]

18 hours ago, interloper said:

Just curious, would anyone have preferred trading Westburg over Ortiz in this trade, assuming for funsies that Milwaukee still accepts?

I don't think I would have, but just curious.

I did a thread last year messing around with Trade Simulator values for SP targets. The combo I came up with for Burnes was Holliday/Westburg/Hall. I could really go either way on Westburg/Ortiz. If you want Gunnar to be the long term SS and you think Westburg has more upside with the bat I think it makes sense to keep Westburg, but it's close.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I did a thread last year messing around with Trade Simulator values for SP targets. The combo I came up with for Burnes was Holliday/Westburg/Hall. I could really go either way on Westburg/Ortiz. If you want Gunnar to be the long term SS and you think Westburg has more upside with the bat I think it makes sense to keep Westburg, but it's close.

I like Ortiz and will root for him in Milwaukee.  Elias was willing to part with Ortiz and reportedly wouldn’t put Westburg on the table in Cease discussions.  I think they see significantly greater offensive upside with Westburg.   More power plus, at times, the ability to work counts more too.

Edited February 4 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

On 2/2/2024 at 2:03 PM, RZNJ said:

Hello, Jim Bowden!   This did not age well.

Let’s make a deal: The Orioles certainly have a deep enough farm system to make a trade of this magnitude without having to deal their very best prospects. A package consisting of corner infielder Coby Mayo, left-hander DL Hall, right-hander Chayce McDermott and outfielder Dylan Beavers would probably be close to what it would take to land Burnes. A steep price for a one-year rental, but probably worth it for a strong shot to win it all.

Reading Bowden talk trade ideas shows why he's not running a team anymore. Good Lord was he off base all off season on these Orioles trade scenarios. 

TGFE (Thank God For Elias)

 

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Probably not. I think the choice between them depends a bit on how they see the infield shaking out defensively.

Trading Ortiz tells me they're comfortable enough with 3b Mayo/SS Henderson, or 3b Henderson/SS Holliday, for the long term defense. 

The trading of Ortiz makes Holliday the only everyday backup to Gunnar at SS. Sure, Mateo is still here but we've seen that his bat just can't hold up, so if God forbid, something happens to Gunnar, I think we'd see Holliday as the everyday SS. 

I'm looking forward to watching Holliday play defense this year to see the improvements. He's got the tools to be a very good shortstop though the arm strength he showed on some throws suggests he might be better suited to 2B.

Sayin that, I would have said the same thing about Volpe with the Yankees with his 28th percentile arm strength but he still ended up a slightly above average defensive SS last year (1 OAA, 58th percentile). I do think Holliday has a slightly better arm though.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The trading of Ortiz makes Holliday the only everyday backup to Gunnar at SS. Sure, Mateo is still here but we've seen that his bat just can't hold up, so if God forbid, something happens to Gunnar, I think we'd see Holliday as the everyday SS. 

I'm looking forward to watching Holliday play defense this year to see the improvements. He's got the tools to be a very good shortstop though the arm strength he showed on some throws suggests he might be better suited to 2B.

Sayin that, I would have said the same thing about Volpe with the Yankees with his 28th percentile arm strength but he still ended up a slightly above average defensive SS last year (1 OAA, 58th percentile). I do think Holliday has a slightly better arm though.

I continue to go back to draft night. Elias took Holliday and a big reason is because he said he was a SS in the majors. He believes he can be there and I’m sure he saw some of the issues everyone is seeing defensively. So obviously he believed/believes they are correctable things as he gets bigger and stronger and gains more experience.  When I read some of the people talking about his defense, it’s almost as if they believe he can’t improve, won’t put in the work to improve and is 24 years old instead of 20. 
 

To me, the only way he’s not the SS long term is if HE doesn’t put in the work on defense to get better. Defense can largely be about effort. If he’s not willing to put in the effort, it could be a problem. I just don’t think that’s who he is. He seems like a highly coachable, hard working kid.

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I like Ortiz and will root for him in Milwaukee.  Elias was willing to part with Ortiz and reportedly wouldn’t put Westburg on the table in Cease discussions.  I think they see significantly greater offensive upside with Westburg.   More power plus, at times, the ability to work counts more too.

I think we'll see more power from Westburg this year as he settles in, and the fact that he can play average to slightly above average 2B and 3B gives him so nice value. 

Ortiz hits the ball on the ground a little too much and while he can drive the ball, he's not going to be a real home run guy like Westburg should be. But Ortiz gets the defensive value edge significantly because he's going to be a plus defender at any infield position you put him at. 

I love the fact that Ortiz is going to be a great defensive shortstop and I think he'll outhits his zips projections (.247/.296/.366/.663) but he may be more of a .700-.720 OPS guy in the big leagues with a .750 OPS upside. If he comes close to that offensively, when you combine that with his defense, he's going to be a consistent 2-4 WIN player.

I'm just happy for him because starting your career at 26-years old is a bit late, but at least he finally knows he's going to have an everyday job this year with the White Sox. 

Like you, I'll be rooting for him as well when he's not playing the Orioles.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I continue to go back to draft night. Elias took Holliday and a big reason is because he said he was a SS in the majors. He believes he can be there and I’m sure he saw some of the issues everyone is seeing defensively. So obviously he believed/believes they are correctable things as he gets bigger and stronger and gains more experience.  When I read some of the people talking about his defense, it’s almost as if they believe he can’t improve, won’t put in the work to improve and is 24 years old instead of 20. 
 

To me, the only way he’s not the SS long term is if HE doesn’t put in the work on defense to get better. Defense can largely be about effort. If he’s not willing to put in the effort, it could be a problem. I just don’t think that’s who he is. He seems like a highly coachable, hard working kid.

1. Could have been spin.
2. Could have misjudged him.
3. The development of other players could have changed the plan.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I continue to go back to draft night. Elias took Holliday and a big reason is because he said he was a SS in the majors. He believes he can be there and I’m sure he saw some of the issues everyone is seeing defensively. So obviously he believed/believes they are correctable things as he gets bigger and stronger and gains more experience.  When I read some of the people talking about his defense, it’s almost as if they believe he can’t improve, won’t put in the work to improve and is 24 years old instead of 20. 
 

To me, the only way he’s not the SS long term is if HE doesn’t put in the work on defense to get better. Defense can largely be about effort. If he’s not willing to put in the effort, it could be a problem. I just don’t think that’s who he is. He seems like a highly coachable, hard working kid.

No doubt he's the type of kid you bet on to improve because of his love of the game, work ethic, and off season facilities he has available to him at the Holliday compound.

I think also people forget that overall, he's a pretty solid defensive player already. Like any 19-year old in his first full minor league season, he has things he needs to get better at offensively (needs to hit less balls on the ground) and defensively (arm strength, getting his body in the right position for throws). 

I have little doubt when it's all said and done that Holliday will end up at least an average defender at SS, but he could be an above average of even plus defender at 2B. Then again, you can say that about most players who play SS.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1. Could have been spin.
2. Could have misjudged him.
3. The development of other players could have changed the plan.

Definitely wasn’t spin. There is no reason for him to spin there. He could have taken anyone he wanted.

Misjudged?  Sure, that’s possible. Many other evaluators feel he will be a SS too. Elias gets the benefit of the doubt to me.

This is the only real possibility here imo…but I think people overrate just how good Gunnar is at SS. People act like he is a GG guy already over there and he’s not.  What I do think is that he is a better SS candidate than maybe the Os thought when Holliday was drafted.

But my post was more about the idea of Holliday being able to be a SS overall and addressing what Tony was saying more than any of this.

Edited February 4 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Definitely wasn’t spin. There is no reason for him to spin there. He could have taken anyone he wanted.

Misjudged?  Sure, that’s possible. Many other evaluators feel he will be a SS too. Elias gets the benefit of the doubt to me.

This is the only real possibility here imo…but I think people overrate just how good Gunnar is at SS. People act like he is a GG guy already over there and he’s not.  What I do think is that he is a better SS candidate than maybe the Os thought when Holliday was drafted.

But my post was more about the idea of Holliday being able to be a SS overall and addressing what Tony was saying. 

Maybe Jackson is a harder sign if you tell him you drafted him to play second.

 

[glenn__davis]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1. Could have been spin.
2. Could have misjudged him.
3. The development of other players could have changed the plan.

I think 3 is the real key.  Gunnar proved to be a pretty terrific SS, or at least better than I had expected him to be.  Especially with his arm, he's able to do some things there that most SS can't.  I think that changed the equation for Holiday a bit.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe Jackson is a harder sign if you tell him you drafted him to play second.

 

Don’t hurt yourself with that reach.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1. Could have been spin.
2. Could have misjudged him.
3. The development of other players could have changed the plan.

I don't understand why Elias would need to "spin" his selection at the time. You don't take a kid 1-1 and give him a record bonus if you don't think he can stick at SS long term. 

As for misjudging him, I think what we saw last season was on par with the reports. He's move well enough (although he does not have elite quickness), has an average arm that might be slightly below average at the big league level right now, but understands the game and is smart defender overall.

I'm not sure I understand the "The development of other players could have changed the plan.". Are you talking about Gunnar showing that he can be a solid average defensive SS? Even if Gunnar has shown that, how does that affect Holliday's ability to play there?

I mean, the Orioles might like a Westburg-3B, Gunnar-SS, Holliday-2B infield alignment best at some point this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean Holliday couldn't play SS. It just means the Orioles may decide that's their best defensive alignment with those three players.

The one thing I try to remember though is that while Gunnar is a solid average defensive SS right now, he very well could be a plus defender at 3B. As he gets older, and if Holliday shows he can be an average defensive SS, that still very well may end up his defensive home.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Definitely wasn’t spin. There is no reason for him to spin there. He could have taken anyone he wanted.

Misjudged?  Sure, that’s possible. Many other evaluators feel he will be a SS too. Elias gets the benefit of the doubt to me.

This is the only real possibility here imo…but I think people overrate just how good Gunnar is at SS. People act like he is a GG guy already over there and he’s not.  What I do think is that he is a better SS candidate than maybe the Os thought when Holliday was drafted.

But my post was more about the idea of Holliday being able to be a SS overall and addressing what Tony was saying more than any of this.

Maybe it’s you who keep underrating how good Henderson was at SS.