What’s your reaction to the Burnes trade?

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Trades are always a little bittersweet. I'm sure 99% of us are very happy about landing Burnes, and more than a few of us are not totally thrilled about the pieces we gave up to get him. But to me, it still comes down to trading a bullpen arm (sure, a BP arm with a very high ceiling) and a guy that probably didn't really have a starting role here for a guy that's finished T10 in NL Cy Young voting each of the last 4 years, including winning one of them. The draft pick kinda made me wince a little, but that's how it goes. Maybe they draft a future HOFer with that pick, and maybe they draft a bust. I'm still happy that we addressed our #1 need in a BIG way, (and while no offense to them) not in a Kyle Gibson or Jack Flaherty kind of way. 

The draft pick almost a wash.  First, this years draft isn’t rated as a great class.  We still have 22 and 32 and the Odds are 80% or better that we’ll offer Burnes a QA and get a similar pick in the 2025 draft.   We didn’t really lose a pick as far as I’m concerned.

[Flash- bd]

11 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Talking to Palmer last night he said he thinks this is a tremendous deal, though a  year rental...Burnes strikes out a ton of hitter, has a low walk number and is a big, strong, young, TOR starter. I knew Ortiz was expendable because we have a surplus of young infield talent...but D.L. Hall was the arm I hated to lose...but you have to give up a lot to get a lot...and we got A LOT.If he stays healthy Burnes gives us a very solid rotation, and dont forget, we get a healthy Means and a full year of Grayson...suddenly I think we have a top rotation in the AL , maybe not the best...but very close...it all depends on health...

Cool to get big Jim's thoughts on it from you, cheers Roy! 

[Since1984]

I hope the trade works out for both teams!

[Sanfran327]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The draft pick almost a wash.  First, this years draft isn’t rated as a great class.  We still have 22 and 32 and the Odds are 80% or better that we’ll offer Burnes a QA and get a similar pick in the 2025 draft.   We didn’t really lose a pick as far as I’m concerned.

I've seen that logic before as well, which definitely makes me feel better. Moreso, the fact that this is supposedly a weak draft, which I did not know. And I guess we'd only get the pick if we make the qualifying offer and he declines and signs elsewhere, but wouldn't get it if we are able to resign/extend him. Win-win. 

[maybenxtyr]

I think another thing we as fans get hung up on is the idea of fielding an all homegrown team. It's not going to happen, and they're always going to have a need that has to be filled from the outside. Hopefully free agency can become a part of the filling in process. 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I know the trade has already been discussed in great detail in the other thread and the reaction is overwhelmingly positive, but I always like to get people on record in a poll after a big move to make it easy to look back later.  So, what’s your vote?

My own opinion hovers between options 2 and 3, with a little of 4 splashed in.  I generally hate giving up 12 years of control for one.  And, it could blow up in our face if Burnes gets hurt or tails off suddenly, and Hall and Ortiz become good contributors.

Still, I can’t deny that Burnes has been a complete stud for several years and could be exactly what we needed to go from good to great in 2024.   I’ll be thrilled to watch him pitch every five days.   He’s a much better bet than Cease, even if it’s only for a year.

In the end, it’s giving up Hall that we could regret.  Ortiz was not going to get much opportunity in Baltimore, and now he’ll get the chance to shine that he deserves, and I’ll be really happy for Ortiz if he goes on to be a good major league regular.  I won’t really rue his departure.   But I will rue Hall’s departure if he becomes either a good starter or a Hader-like reliever.  And, the fact that I’ve been following him for 7 years and won’t get the payoff will sting.  It’ll be worth it if Burnes shines and gets us deep into the postseason, but I could end up hating it if Burnes is one and done and his presence doesn’t get us any further than last year. 

I don’t sweat the pick, which we’ll get back if Burnes has a healthy year and turns down a QO.

One final positive is that we don’t have to hear this crap about how Elias can’t pull off a major trade.  This one’s huge and we can put that BS to bed.  


 

At some point you have to switch out of hoarding 100% of your talent mode and start dealing from surplus. Yes, it's likely the Brewers win this from a dollars/wins perspective. But this makes the Orioles more likely to win more games and have a shot in October.

And I think they're more likely to regret Ortiz more than Hall. Ortiz might be a good starting shortstop for six years, while Hall could be good but could be hurt or lose the plate at any moment. I guess worst case Hall could be Josh Hader, but I think that's unlikely. But worst case Ortiz could be like Alan Trammell or something. It's like the question I saw yesterday somewhere else where someone asked if you'd rather have a young Strawberry or Gooden, minus their off-field problems. I said Strawberry because there was always a good chance the young pitcher's arm falls off and he's never the same. Especially if he's so good he's throwing a lot of innings early.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At some point you have to switch out of hoarding 100% of your talent mode and start dealing from surplus. Yes, it's likely the Brewers win this from a dollars/wins perspective. But this makes the Orioles more likely to win more games and have a shot in October.

And I think they're more likely to regret Ortiz more than Hall. Ortiz might be a good starting shortstop for six years, while Hall could be good but could be hurt or lose the plate at any moment. I guess worst case Hall could be Josh Hader, but I think that's unlikely. But worst case Ortiz could be like Alan Trammell or something. It's like the question I saw yesterday somewhere else where someone asked if you'd rather have a young Strawberry or Gooden, minus their off-field problems. I said Strawberry because there was always a good chance the young pitcher's arm falls off and he's never the same. Especially if he's so good he's throwing a lot of innings early.

If Joey Ortiz can be Alan Trammel then why can’t Hall be Blake Snell or whoever?   I think Ortiz is likelier to give more consistent value over the next 6 years but I think most think Hall has the higher ceiling.  We have Henderson, Holliday, etc.    It won’t bother me one bit if Joey Ortiz makes the next 6 all-star trams.  It will bother me if Hall provides the same value as a starter as Cease this year and 5 more after that.  Granted, the chances of that are very, very small.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s funny but I have almost no interest in signing Burnes long term. I’m perfectly happy with getting one very good year out of him and the draft pick.  If he has a big year this year, he’s getting 7/210 on the low end. I’m not willing to pay that and he certainly could get more.

If he has a good year, he’ll get more than that.  Probably a good deal more.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Since1984 said:

I hope the trade works out for both teams!

So long as “working out” means we win the WS in 2024!

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Joey Ortiz can be Alan Trammel then why can’t Hall be Blake Snell or whoever?   I think Ortiz is likelier to give more consistent value over the next 6 years but I think most think Hall has the higher ceiling.  We have Henderson, Holliday, etc.    It won’t bother me one bit if Joey Ortiz makes the next 6 all-star trams.  It will bother me if Hall provides the same value as a starter as Cease this year and 5 more after that.  Granted, the chances of that are very, very small.

Sure, he could be. Ceilings are usually pie-in-the-sky. Felix Pie coulda been Lou Brock.

I'd just take my chances with Ortiz since Hall has 495 times the odds of tearing his UCL.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If he has a good year, he’ll get more than that.  Probably a good deal more.  

It's been so long since we've talked about the Orioles non-ironically signing a top free agent I'm not sure I can value something like that. In my mind it's just make up some $400M number and laugh when the Dodgers and Yanks actually offer that.

I kind of hope the new owners don't have pockets deep enough to consider contracts like that, especially for 30-year-old free agents.

[AdamK]

1 hour ago, Roy Firestone said:

Talking to Palmer last night he said he thinks this is a tremendous deal, though a  year rental...Burnes strikes out a ton of hitter, has a low walk number and is a big, strong, young, TOR starter. I knew Ortiz was expendable because we have a surplus of young infield talent...but D.L. Hall was the arm I hated to lose...but you have to give up a lot to get a lot...and we got A LOT.If he stays healthy Burnes gives us a very solid rotation, and dont forget, we get a healthy Means and a full year of Grayson...suddenly I think we have a top rotation in the AL , maybe not the best...but very close...it all depends on health...

And sometimes it feel like you have to give up a lot to get something. In this case, what we gave up didn't feel like too much when considering we are, in fact, getting a lot IMO. Sure, one year deal and all, but if CB had more years left the package required would have cut a lot more deeply.

We don't know what the future holds, but this isn't rolling the dice on someone you have to squint at to see a breakout coming. CB's track record more than makes up for the loss of Ortiz, Hall and 34.

 

And to make myself feel even better, I'll throw in the old "value-add of having our kids learning from CB while he's here" thing. It's not nothing!

 

[24fps]

It's hard to find fault with this trade, so kudos to Elias for both skill and timing.

It's quite possible that come September 1 the O's infield could be Westburg, Henderson, Holliday and Mayo so trading Ortiz was a no-brainer.

But I don't buy the argument about "6 years of Hall vs. 1 year of Burnes is a concern" though.  Nothing stands still.  That one year of Burns also translates to one further year of development for McDermott, Povich and Johnson who will still all have their years of control intact.  Plus Elias has that time to further plan for 2025 and beyond, presumably with greater resources.

Best of luck to Hall and Ortiz for great success in Milwaukee but for me, it's really liberating to be focused on the upcoming season without qualification.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sure, he could be. Ceilings are usually pie-in-the-sky. Felix Pie coulda been Lou Brock.

I'd just take my chances with Ortiz since Hall has 495 times the odds of tearing his UCL.

Well, in 2019 you would have said Hall had a 495 times greater chance of tearing the labrum on his left shoulder, but Ortiz is the one who went under the knife for that!   So, you never know…

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sure, he could be. Ceilings are usually pie-in-the-sky. Felix Pie coulda been Lou Brock.

I'd just take my chances with Ortiz since Hall has 495 times the odds of tearing his UCL.

You’re right but it’s kind of funny that Ortiz is the one who tore his labrum.