Elias' mental shift

[wildcard]

To me the trade for Corbin Burnes represents a mentality shift for Elias.   Since 2018 when he was hired he has been all about collecting high ceiling talent.  And he guarded that talent consistently.  Not trading it.  Taking every opportunity to add to the young talent.

But with the Burnes trade it feels to me like Elias has shifted to "How do I win a World Series".   He just traded  12 years of young talent control for one year of a veteran ace.   That is counter to what he has done up to this point.

I have no doubt that Elias worked on the Burnes trade for three months just like he says. But I am sure there have been other trades he as worked on that he didn't pull the trigger on because he was guarding the young talent.   The Cease trade is a example.   Just couldn't give up that talent.   And I am sure there have been others in the recent years. 

It was a big decision to trade DL Hall.  1st rounder with great stuff and a big future.   Some may think of him as a reliever but in my mind that is because he is a late developer because of injuries.   Given the chance, coaching, and health he still has a huge up side of being a starter with wipe out stuff.  6 years of that talent just walked out the door.  Talent that Elias has guarded up until now. 

Same with Ortiz but he was kinda blocked.   But he should have been in ST and made the O's opening day roster.  Best SS in the organization.  He is probably more ready than Holliday at this point.   6 more years of control of a talented player walked.

This a real mental shift for Elias.  Its really go for it for one big World Series year.  Focus on one year instead of the focus on the next six years.  Sure the O's have other talent that allows this shift.  But make no mistake this is the first real example of trading young talent for short term improvement.

[ChosenOne21]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

To me the trade for Corbin Burnes represents a mentality shift for Elias.   Since 2018 when he was hired he has been all about collecting high ceiling talent.  And he guarded that talent consistently.  Not trading it.  Taking every opportunity to add to the young talent.

But with the Burnes trade it feels to me like Elias has shifted to "How do I win a World Series".   He just traded  12 years of young talent control for one year of a veteran ace.   That is counter to what he has done up to this point.

I have no doubt that Elias worked on the Burnes trade for three months just like he says. But I am sure there have been other trades he as worked on that he didn't pull the trigger on because he was guarding the young talent.   The Cease trade is a example.   Just couldn't give up that talent.   And I am sure there have been others in the recent years. 

It was a big decision to trade DL Hall.  1st rounder with great stuff and a big future.   Some may think of him as a reliever but in my mind that is because he is a late developer because of injuries.   Given the chance, coaching, and health he still has a huge up side of being a starter with wipe out stuff.  6 years of that talent just walked out the door.  Talent that Elias has guarded up until now. 

Same with Ortiz but he was kinda blocked.   But he should have been in ST and made the O's opening day roster.  Best SS in the organization.  He is probably more ready than Holliday at this point.   6 more years of control of a talented player walked.

This a real mental shift for Elias.  Its really go for it for one big World Series year.  Focus on one year instead of the focus on the next six years.  Sure the O's have other talent that allows this shift.  But make no mistake this is the first real example of trading young talent for short term improvement.

I agree that this is the first offseason Elias has had a good reason to deal from his high-end talent surpluses.

I think the main reason we don't have Cease isn't because Elias is "hoarding talent" but because the White Sox's demands were ridiculous.

People are dreaming if they think D.L. Hall has more than like a 5% chance to be a good MLB starter. The command isn't there and he'll struggle to get you five innings most days. Sure, maybe the O's couldn't unlock him and the Brewers can, but Hall has been around for, what, six years now? He also hasn't been durable and I think his max IP for a season is 89. He's a reliever, and quite likely a darn good one and that's fine.

[Too Tall]

Strikes me as Astro's model. At least that's the first thing that went through my mind. I don't think Elias is thinking just one year. He hasn't built a one and done model. Now he has the potential backing to play! 

[Sports Guy]

So what you are saying is that winning has become important to him. Well duh!  Of course it has. Coming off a 101 win season, you don’t make bs borderline incremental improvements like Lorenzen. That doesn’t help you. 
 

I don’t really understand your mentality at all. Your thoughts are to basically only go with what is here, hope for internal improvement only and basically, get lucky.  
 

Elias said this move is all about 2024. That’s his sole focus. He knows losing Hall hurts but he figures he can get the reliever easier than the starter and he’s right.  Elias also knows that he can get players in the draft and that he has intl guys coming. 
 

The Dodgers use their prospects as currency. They trade the ones they feel are expendable And promote the ones that are good. As it stands, the Dodgers frequently have a ROY candidate on their team.  That’s what the Os can be And what they should be. That’s exactly how you handle a farm system.

He has been after this level of starter all offseason. I’m not sure why it would surprise you that he made this move. 

The mentality shifted a long time ago, he just didn’t get things done.  Now he did and acting surprised by it or thinking it’s irresponsible or whatever is wrong. 

As I said before, this is a trade a contending team makes 100 times out of 100. The purpose of playing is to win titles, not to keep guys because they have a lot of service time.

[Winter]

He traded two of his prospects that are going on 26 years old with little MLB experience. One which is blocked here and would likely be going on 27 years old before he even got a locked in bench/utility slot here behind Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, Mayo, the other heading towards a back end reliever. -- Ortiz/Hall value likely goes nowhere but down at this point especially Ortiz buried in AAA and aging. We didn't just get 1 year of Burnes imo the Orioles also sent a message out to the entire league, including our own players that this is the dawn of a new era in Baltimore baseball. No longer the mud rug for the Yankees, RedSox and BlueJays to abuse for near decades at a time. 

[wildbillhiccup]

LOL. The guy makes one trade and now he's "all in" and mortgaging the future for a World Series? He traded two aging prospects who realistically projected to be a solid utility type player and a back end reliever. We're not the Tampa Bay Rays. We never were. The only reason John Angelos tied Elias' hands financially was to make the team more appealing to a perspective buyer. We may not quite be on the same level as the Dodgers, but with the new ownership set to take over I think we're going to be a lot closer to that business model than the Rays. As someone else mentioned the Dodgers do a great job of developing young talent and taking advantage of the FA market. I expect us to do the same, even if it's on smaller financial scale. 

[ChosenOne21]

21 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

LOL. The guy makes one trade and now he's "all in" and mortgaging the future for a World Series? He traded two aging prospects who realistically projected to be a solid utility type player and a back end reliever. We're not the Tampa Bay Rays. We never were. The only reason John Angelos tied Elias' hands financially was to make the team more appealing to a perspective buyer. We may not quite be on the same level as the Dodgers, but with the new ownership set to take over I think we're going to be a lot closer to that business model than the Rays. As someone else mentioned the Dodgers do a great job of developing young talent and taking advantage of the FA market. I expect us to do the same, even if it's on smaller financial scale. 

Elias has so much prospect capital that trading his spare parts would be many other teams' "all-in" Losing Ortiz barely moves the needle on our ability to compete in the future and, honestly, he's so good at finding relievers on the scrap heap I'm not sure losing Hall moves the needle much either.

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Winter said:

He traded two of his prospects that are going on 26 years old with little MLB experience. One which is blocked here and would likely be going on 27 years old before he even got a locked in bench/utility slot here behind Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, Mayo, the other heading towards a back end reliever. -- Ortiz/Hall value likely goes nowhere but down at this point especially Ortiz buried in AAA and aging. We didn't just get 1 year of Burnes imo the Orioles also sent a message out to the entire league, including our own players that this is the dawn of a new era in Baltimore baseball. No longer the mud rug for the Yankees, RedSox and BlueJays to abuse for near decades at a time. 

I am pretty far away from thinking the Os are going to spend 250m to extend Burnes into his late 30s. I think he is more likely to extend young players like Gunnar and Holliday.

Love your "will be 26".   I will be 100 one day if I live that long.   Hall and Ortiz are both 25 and were projected to have spots on the 2024 26 man roster.   Who knows how the season would have progressed for them had they stayed.

I am not saying that Elias made the wrong move.   I am saying he has made a mental shift from collecting young talent and guarding all of them to focusing on what he needs to do win the World Series.

In the past Elias might have kept Hall and traded Ortiz if he was blocked for more young talent.   

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

To me the trade for Corbin Burnes represents a mentality shift for Elias.   Since 2018 when he was hired he has been all about collecting high ceiling talent.  And he guarded that talent consistently.  Not trading it.  Taking every opportunity to add to the young talent.

But with the Burnes trade it feels to me like Elias has shifted to "How do I win a World Series".   He just traded  12 years of young talent control for one year of a veteran ace.   That is counter to what he has done up to this point.

I have no doubt that Elias worked on the Burnes trade for three months just like he says. But I am sure there have been other trades he as worked on that he didn't pull the trigger on because he was guarding the young talent.   The Cease trade is a example.   Just couldn't give up that talent.   And I am sure there have been others in the recent years. 

It was a big decision to trade DL Hall.  1st rounder with great stuff and a big future.   Some may think of him as a reliever but in my mind that is because he is a late developer because of injuries.   Given the chance, coaching, and health he still has a huge up side of being a starter with wipe out stuff.  6 years of that talent just walked out the door.  Talent that Elias has guarded up until now. 

Same with Ortiz but he was kinda blocked.   But he should have been in ST and made the O's opening day roster.  Best SS in the organization.  He is probably more ready than Holliday at this point.   6 more years of control of a talented player walked.

This a real mental shift for Elias.  Its really go for it for one big World Series year.  Focus on one year instead of the focus on the next six years.  Sure the O's have other talent that allows this shift.  But make no mistake this is the first real example of trading young talent for short term improvement.

I knew of all posters that some way your perspective would be seeing this trade as problematic. As far as 12 years of control (possibly 18 with the draft pick) for one, IMO that’s the cost of doing business.

Another question or another perspective to take when looking at this trade is: Was/is our pitching good enough to win deep into the postseason and possibly a World Series? (A championship has to be the goal at this point we were already a division winning playoff team who won 101 games.)

Going into last post season, I didn’t believe that we had a staff who could be successful and relying on the likes of a rookie, a journeyman (Gibson), a very inconsistent up/down pitcher in Kremer, a pitcher coming off almost missing 2 full seasons to injury in Means, and whatever Flaherty was supposed to be was a recipe for failure and wala what happened? We were summarily swept because our pitching didn’t give us a chance for 2 games. Something you can’t have in a short series.

The acquisition of Burnes helps to ensure that does not happen again. It also helps us cover for the consistent length that Gibson gave us during the regular season in order to help preserve the bullpen. Remember we don’t have Bautista this year to use in 3 out of 4 games. Or to use for 5 out saves. Kimbrell simply does not posses those capabilities at this age, so those outs have to be accounted for.

Lastly, calling Ortiz the best SS in the organization is a mischaracterization. He has the defensive profile to be described as the best defensive SS. But offense is such a big component of the game. Otherwise Ozzie Smith would have been better than Cal. Or Omar Vizquel better than ARod. Offense matters a lot!

We have two other SS who are elite offensive players (Holliday and Henderson). Something Ortiz is not. That’s why there was no room on the team for him. Well, that and the fact that they liked Westberg better. And if you have 3 everyday first and second year players, why waste the value of the 4th when he can help you acquire the potential missing piece to your championship puzzle?

I know and respect the fact that you love and have deeply attached yourself to all of our top prospects. But it was never realistic for all of them to stay because as we all know Elias never drafted for this to be possible. All position players no pitchers at the top rounds of the draft since he got here.

I hate to tell you that in all likelihood there will be more trades to come. 2024 is not a one off. Unless we sign FAs to supplement the talent on the Big League team we will have to fill those spots some way. Also, guys like Ortiz, Norby, etc cannot continue to sit in AAA and rot forever. They deserve their shot. It’s their careers that are on the line above everything else.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I am pretty far away from thinking the Os are going to spend 250m to extend Burnes into his late 30s. I think he is more likely to extend young players like Gunnar and Holliday.

Love your "will be 26".   I will be 100 one day if I live that long.   Hall and Ortiz are both 25 and were projected to have spots on the 2024 26 man roster.   Who knows how the season would have progressed for them had they stayed.

I am not saying that Elias made the wrong move.   I am saying he has made a mental shift from collecting young talent and guarding all of them to focusing on what he needs to do win the World Series.

In the past Elias might have kept Hall and traded Ortiz if he was blocked for more young talent.   

 

In the past the Os are a doormat. You seem to be twisting yourself into a pretzel over this and the explanation is simple. He actually wants to and likes winning. He told you to begin this offseason what he wanted to do.

Now, I doubted he would do it (at least recently) but I didn’t doubt he was trying and that he wanted to. You seemingly ignored all of that. 
 

You started a thread not long ago about the 2025 team and your roster was entirely made up of players in the org right now. It’s simply not realistic. It never was. He was never going to just try to win with what was in the org and sprinkle in low cost guys like Irvin. 
 

That was never going to be the plan. 

[wildcard]

Looks like the Brewers are going to give Hall a chance to start.    Hall pitched 71 innings last years.  That is not far off the 75 innings that GRod pitched in 2022 before he pitched 163 innings in 2023.

[maybenxtyr]

This isn't nearly as complicated as some are trying to make it. By almost all industry standards he traded for an Ace pitcher by traded a surplus infielder and a pitcher that has a plenty of talent, but a few red flags too. The pick is basically a wash when you consider a qualifying offer. 

 

I don't want to take anything away from the upcoming season, but the next off season I think will give the fans a little better understanding of what his plans are, and what the new ownership group will allow him to do. This trade was an excellent opportunity to improve the odds while not giving up a ton, and also not increasing payroll beyond what the current owner will allow. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In the past the Os are a doormat. You seem to be twisting yourself into a pretzel over this and the explanation is simple. He actually wants to and likes winning. He told you to begin this offseason what he wanted to do.

Now, I doubted he would do it (at least recently) but I didn’t doubt he was trying and that he wanted to. You seemingly ignored all of that. 
 

You started a thread not long ago about the 2025 team and your roster was entirely made up of players in the org right now. It’s simply not realistic. It never was. He was never going to just try to win with what was in the org and sprinkle in low cost guys like Irvin. 
 

That was never going to be the plan. 

I agree on one thing.   Elias said in the 2022-23 off season he was going to add a TOR starter.   He targeted Babbitt according to reports.   And didn't get it done.

He said the same thing this off season.   I knew he would try.   I didn't think the outcome would be much different.    

But the mental shift to win the WS made the out come different.

Again I am not saying Elias is wrong,   Just that he has shifted his thinking.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree on one thing.   Elias said in the 2022-23 off season he was going to add a TOR starter.   He targeted Babbitt according to reports.   And didn't get it done.

He said the same thing this off season.   I knew he would try.   I didn't think the outcome would be much different.    

But the mental shift to win the WS made the out come different.

Again I am not saying Elias is wrong,   Just that he has shifted his thinking.

But that thinking has been shifted. And what exactly did you expect? Did you think he was never going to try to win unless  things just fell correctly?

You seem to be surprised by this when it’s been obvious to everyone else. 
 

And I believe you think he’s wrong. Your mantra all offseason has been to make minor improvements and that we will get better by bringing up our own guys. That is your belief. At least he consistent about it.

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But that thinking has been shifted. And what exactly did you expect? Did you think he was never going to try to win unless  things just fell correctly?

You seem to be surprised by this when it’s been obvious to everyone else. 
 

And I believe you think he’s wrong. Your mantra all offseason has been to make minor improvements and that we will get better by bringing up our own guys. That is your belief. At least he consistent about it.

Nah, his belief is whatever he thinks Elias wants to do is the right thing to do.

 

Edited February 3 by Can_of_corn
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