Keith Law Top 100

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law's Top 100 prospects list is out.

1. Jackson Holliday

20. Samuel Basallo

27. Coby Mayo

62. Heston Kjerstad

64. Enrique Bradfield

Law has long been a Joey Ortiz booster and has him at #58.

Edited February 5 by MurphDogg

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law's Top 100 prospects list is out.

1. Jackson Holliday

20. Samuel Basallo

27. Coby Mayo

62. Heston Kjerstad

64. Enrique Bradfield

Law has long been a Joey Ortiz booster and has him at #58.

IIRC, Cowser was divisive last year too...  Pretty amazing he's as high as he is on many lists (top 20 to 50 range), but not even make the 100 here.

[RZNJ]

Law thinks Holliday is a better SS than Henderson, present tense.  Wow!

Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.

[RZNJ]

On Basallo.  Thinks he’s a legit catcher.

While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position; the risk is that his bat might be so advanced that it’s better to move him to another position so he can get to the majors, à la Bryce Harper, Wil Myers or Paul Konerko. The Orioles also have a pretty good young catcher ahead of Basallo, which might change Basallo's trajectory, although it isn’t relevant for the purposes of this ranking — Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.

[RZNJ]

On Mayo.

He’s got a 70 arm that would allow him to play anywhere, but third base is probably an uphill battle because of his size — he’s athletic enough for it, but it’s hard for guys that tall to stay on the dirt and consistently get down for groundballs. He could certainly play first right now and I’d like to see him in right field. The left side of the Orioles’ infield is the most densely populated place in America, so a position switch might serve everyone’s needs anyway. He probably won’t add much value on defense, but won’t hurt you, and a 30-homer, 80-walks guy who posts high BABIPs because everything off the bat is 90 mph or better is an above-average regular who plays for every team.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, Law has never been a big Cowser guy.  He does have Lawlar 4th though.

Edited February 5 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

Bradfield is an 80 runner and either a 70 or 80 defender in center, depending on who you ask and perhaps when you see him, not that it matters that much in the end — he’s got two top-end tools, and that gives him a high floor and a lot of runway to work on the other aspects of his game. Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season. (It did not help that Bradfield constantly tried to bunt for hits, putting himself behind in the count and doing nothing to right his swing. I have a lot of feelings about this.) He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly. At worst, you’ve got an elite fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while the ceiling here is huge defensive impact with an average bat.

[Sports Guy]

Uber elite prospect Spencer Jones not listed.  

[Spy Fox]

Anyone know what he dislikes about Cowser?

[emmett16]

I

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Law thinks Holliday is a better SS than Henderson, present tense.  Wow!

Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.

I’ve said it 100 time now and I’ll say it again.  There’s no chance Holliday isn’t on the OD roster.  He’s too good.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I

I’ve said it 100 time now and I’ll say it again.  There’s no chance Holliday isn’t on the OD roster.  He’s too good.  

It is interesting to read such conflicting reports on his defense.  It happened with Westburg too.

[Sports Guy]

Interesting that he only calls for Kjerstad being a 20-25 homer guy and Holliday to be 25. Maybe he thinks Kjerstad will just be a platoon guy?

Or does he just not believe in the power like many people seem to?

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Anyone know what he dislikes about Cowser?

He can't hit lefties and isn't a true CF. I'm kinda surprised he is still present/so high on so many of these lists. 

[Warehouse]

16 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Anyone know what he dislikes about Cowser?

In the past, he didn’t believe the offensive output would profile in COF.  High whiff and K rates at AAA, platoon issues vs lefties (more evident in whiff rate splits than OPS splits), Keith not buying into the power profile as sufficient to offset the swing and miss, questions on whether some of Cowser’s challenges might be exacerbated at next level, etc. 

[Rbiggs2525]

First report that high on Holliday defense. What I would say is last year I was surprised how good Westburg defense was. The OH and national reports seemed to say he was an average defender with a good bat. Either way Law always seemed to be hot take type of guy.