Keith Law Top 100

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Orange said:

It would be lots of fun to have a guy stealing 100 bags, though. But everything y'all are saying makes sense. Would it be fair to say that it's not as much hitting for power that is the need, but the ability to make authoritative contact when a pitcher challenges you? If you get challenged and smack a single 35% of the time, that works right? (The aforementioned BB rate/swing decisions being a big part of this... along with contact %.) Tony Gwynn was about a 6 homer a year guy for his first twelve seasons... but he hit with such authority that the power wasn't as important. (Another outlier, to be sure. Dude had a SLG of .511 in 1987 with only 7 homers.)

Wade Boggs too but those guys are extremes.  Bradfield hit .317 and .297 his last two years in college.  I don’t have a Gwynn or Boggs vibe there.  I’m hoping for a .260-.280 hitter who draws 80 walks and can pop 10 homers, 20+ doubles, and 10 triples a year AND steal 50+(that’s conservative) a year while providing GG defense in CF.   Not too much to ask for, right?   

Edited February 6 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Orange said:

Would it be fair to say that it's not as much hitting for power that is the need, but the ability to make authoritative contact when a pitcher challenges you? If you get challenged and smack a single 35% of the time, that works right?

Traditional BABIP analysis says that’s not sustainable.  There are exceptions to “rules” (Arraez, McNeil…even early Frazier) too.  They buck the EV trend with quality of contact.  But the “security “ of projections aren’t based on that secret sauce because that’s tougher to measure and replicate.  

The irony is that him trying to tap into more power is what caused him to fall to us.  Do we go back to that well?  Does the SigBot know something we and Fangraph-heads don’t?  Can we coach up EBJ’s style?  Can he succeed where many others haven’t?  

He’s an exciting and divisive projection prospect for sure.

[sevastras]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think people are so amazed by Holliday’s meteoric rise through the minors last year that they can’t get their head around the idea that at 20 years old he might not be ready to be a dominant player in MLB.   

ZiPS is projecting both Adley and Gunnar to be significantly more valuable than Holliday over each of the next three seasons.  I’m not saying ZiPS is right, but there’s plenty of reason to think we might need to tap the brakes on Holliday just a bit.  
 

I had been saying for months Holliday will be on the OD roster. I also said early last year when people wanted to send Gunnar down, they don’t realize how good he is going to be. We finally have an MVP candidate on the team after all of these years. 

[Just Regular]

One thing I'm watching entering 2024 is its a known known good eye guys can work walks off low minors arms, so I throw out the 2023 OBP.

It'll be interesting to see if they keep him running at Billy Hamilton-scale.

In Whitey Herzog's book, he wrote about how with Willie McGee and Vince Coleman he coached them to just hit the ball over the infielder's heads, and I am curious to see if Sigbot tailors a development plan like that for him.    For me that'd be a novel approach, as even in the cases of college average/contact hitters like Norby/Cowser, it has been a years long process to get them to more power even if it costs them some strikeouts.

A good outcome on offense I think might resemble Adley's fellow Beaver Steven Kwan (think ~110 OPS+), but with even more speed and defense.     If his offense can reach Arraez-McNeil heights in the 120's, I believe that could garner MVP votes in the better years.     Arraez-McNeil can't really field, but the Hit tool is foundational.

[Say O!]

On 2/5/2024 at 11:07 AM, Sports Guy said:

 A 280/360/400 type line would be great.  Combine that with his speed and defense and he’s probably a 4+ WAR player.

Lots of EBJ comps mentioned in this thread (Pierre, Coleman, Butler, McGee, Kwan) but this type of OPS line in current environment at OPACY is 110+ and coupled with elite CF defense and elite baserunning…well that’s more like peak Kenny Lofton and 6+ WAR over 162 games.  Elite baserunning, Elite CF defense and .700 OPS is probably 4+ WAR.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Traditional BABIP analysis says that’s not sustainable.  There are exceptions to “rules” (Arraez, McNeil…even early Frazier) too.  They buck the EV trend with quality of contact.  But the “security “ of projections aren’t based on that secret sauce because that’s tougher to measure and replicate.  

The irony is that him trying to tap into more power is what caused him to fall to us.  Do we go back to that well?  Does the SigBot know something we and Fangraph-heads don’t?  Can we coach up EBJ’s style?  Can he succeed where many others haven’t?  

He’s an exciting and divisive projection prospect for sure.

Law says they screwed him up by trying to get into his power.  I feel the Orioles might be able to do a better job of that.   He’s got such little chase and high contact rates that it seems like he should be able to trade some of that for more power.   Also, the weight room.  Most sprinters are muscled up.  He can easily add 10 good pounds and maintain his speed.  Ortiz swung a wet noodle his debut year.  Cowser showed very little power at Delmarva.  I’m fairly confident they can get to some power without sacrificing too much of his strong qualities as a hitter.

[Sydnor]

41 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Lots of EBJ comps mentioned in this thread (Pierre, Coleman, Butler, McGee, Kwan) but this type of OPS line in current environment at OPACY is 110+ and coupled with elite CF defense and elite baserunning…well that’s more like peak Kenny Lofton and 6+ WAR over 162 games.  Elite baserunning, Elite CF defense and .700 OPS is probably 4+ WAR.

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). 

I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). 

I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

Yeah that was my point. Lofton is borderline/should be HOF.  The debate back and forth about potential EBJ offense stats and xtra base hits…well I was just looking to put that in proper context.  We should all be ecstatic if EBJ can OPS in 750ish range given what evaluators have already said about his defense and baserunning (80 grades each).

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). 

I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

Plus he played with Steve Kerr and made the Final Four.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1988-03-27-arizona.html

He had a 6-win season at age 25 when he did the Rookie of the Year 2nd place thing like Adley, at an even higher age.

Give him (an admittedly aggressive) 15 more fWAR for ages 21-24 had he 1-sport focused, and he pulls even with Ken Griffey, Jr. by fWAR's career CF reckoning.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1871&season=2023&pos=cf

[Just Regular]

EBJ's career ISO would be fun to know in advance - the rest of his game seems stable.     Going from the bottom of the barrel, and rounding off a bit, some 2000 PA centerfielders ISO's since integration:

.040 - Otis Nixon

.050 - Willy Taveras

.060 - Ben Revere

.065 - Juan Pierre

.075 - Gary Pettis

.085 - Brett Butler

.090 - Willie Wilson

.095 - Al Bumbry

.100 - Willie McGee

.110 - Mookie Wilson

.125 - Kenny Lofton

 

 

[scarey1999]

If he can keep his OPS above 700 and ISO at or above 100, we’ve got a tremendously valuable player on our hands, given the speed and defense. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sydnor said:

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). 

I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

The hoped-for comp I’ve made, and still like, is Brett Butler, a .290/.377/.376 career hitter.   He’s no borderline Hall of Famer but he was still a tremendous player despite a career ISO of .086.   

[Hallas]

10 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Traditional BABIP analysis says that’s not sustainable.  There are exceptions to “rules” (Arraez, McNeil…even early Frazier) too.  They buck the EV trend with quality of contact.  But the “security “ of projections aren’t based on that secret sauce because that’s tougher to measure and replicate.  

The irony is that him trying to tap into more power is what caused him to fall to us.  Do we go back to that well?  Does the SigBot know something we and Fangraph-heads don’t?  Can we coach up EBJ’s style?  Can he succeed where many others haven’t?  

He’s an exciting and divisive projection prospect for sure.

BABIP for batters is quite a bit more repeatable than it is for pitchers.   For batters it still takes a while to stabilize, so if the number deviates from that player's baseline over a season then you can possibly conclude that the player is lucky or unlucky.  But you can't take BABIP in a vacuum and assume that a player is getting lucky because it is elevated.

 

This is very different for pitchers, who cannot control the tendencies of the batters they face. 

Edited February 7 by Hallas

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The hoped-for comp I’ve made, and still like, is Brett Butler, a .290/.377/.376 career hitter.   He’s no borderline Hall of Famer but he was still a tremendous player despite a career ISO of .086.   

That would be a great outcome. I am not trying to be down on Bradfield. I just see a lot posters (not you) penciling Bradfield in to replace Mullins in 2026, and throwing around Lofton type comps, or saying he should be able to OPS in excess of .750 without any problem.

I hope all of that is true, and I’m not trying to be a contrarian or down on him, but it’s more likely Bradfield turns into Myles Straw than Lofton or Butler. At age 22 (Bradfield’s age), Straw had a .295/.412./.373 (131 wRC+) slash line in A+. At age 23, Straw had a .327/.414/.390 (129 wRC+) slash line in AA (before being promoted to AAA and receiving a cup of coffee in the majors).

I’ll be interested in seeing how Bradfield performs this year. He is an easy player to root for, and I hope he is great. I am just generally skeptical of players with his profile. It’s fun to dream, but when Lofton comps get thrown around and people start talking about 4 to 6 win seasons, I think that it is unrealistic to expect that sort of an outcome.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

That would be a great outcome. I am not trying to be down on Bradfield. I just see a lot posters (not you) penciling Bradfield in to replace Mullins in 2026, and throwing around Lofton type comps, or saying he should be able to OPS in excess of .750 without any problem.

I hope all of that is true, and I’m not trying to be a contrarian or down on him, but it’s more likely Bradfield turns into Myles Straw than Lofton or Butler. At age 22 (Bradfield’s age), Straw had a .295/.412./.373 (131 wRC+) slash line in A+. At age 23, Straw had a .327/.414/.390 (129 wRC+) slash line in AA (before being promoted to AAA and receiving a cup of coffee in the majors).

I’ll be interested in seeing how Bradfield performs this year. He is an easy player to root for, and I hope he is great. I am just generally skeptical of players with his profile. It’s fun to dream, but when Lofton comps get thrown around and people start talking about 4 to 6 win seasons, I think that it is unrealistic to expect that sort of an outcome.

I agree with your concerns.  Bradfield will be an interesting guy to follow.  The fact that the O’s thought enough of him to draft him in the first round gives me hope that he’ll be more than Myles Straw.