Keith Law Top 100

[Aglets]

32 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Below are some noteworthy take-aways from the write-up:

Jackson better at SS than Holliday.

Was this a typo?

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Jackson better at SS than Holliday.

Cowser plays plus defense in outfield corners but struggles against lefties and non-fastballs. Projects as a 4th outfielder with a small chance to become more.

 

Can you clarify the first comment? 

 

I knew Cowser struggled with LHP in 2022.  But I was hoping it was the LHH vs. LHP struggles we've seen others have in Aberdeen since the SSS were heavily weighted there in the beginning of the season.  And he did improve in 2023 vs. LHP, but I can't say he did well.  Definitely a concern that he's nothing more than a strong side of a platoon.  I'd define that as something more than a 4th OF, but I guess that's the direction of the comment.

[Sports Guy]

He thinks Holliday is better than Gunnar at SS right now. 

[Warehouse]

22 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Was this a typo?

Yes - meant to say Gunnar.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Can you clarify the first comment? 

 

I knew Cowser struggled with LHP in 2022.  But I was hoping it was the LHH vs. LHP struggles we've seen others have in Aberdeen since the SSS were heavily weighted there in the beginning of the season.  And he did improve in 2023 vs. LHP, but I can't say he did well.  Definitely a concern that he's nothing more than a strong side of a platoon.  I'd define that as something more than a 4th OF, but I guess that's the direction of the comment.

His write up:

Cowser reached the majors last year but continued to struggle with the same issues he had in Triple A in 2022: He doesn’t hit lefties, and he doesn’t hit non-fastballs, or at least doesn’t do either of these things well enough to project as an everyday player. He’s a 55 defender in a corner with a 70 arm, and he can handle center on a short-term basis, so there are plenty of ways for him to generate value — and maybe get more reps in the majors to work on either of those two deficiencies. I think he’s a good fourth outfielder right now, with some small chance to become more because he can defend, can whack a fastball, and does make pretty hard contact.
 

 

 

I showed a tweet in another thread that showed the swing and miss rates on 3 different pitches and Cowser was pretty bad on the off speed pitches, so this is where Law is having a lot of doubts. 

[Sports Guy]

So Cowser is the left handed Pedro Cerrano right now. Can he improve on that? If he can’t, he’s going to be a bust. Teams just won’t throw him fastballs that often and when they do, he will be in a mode to hit the off speed stuff that power fastballs, especially the high fastball that so many are throwing, will just get blown right by him. 
 

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No Liranzo mention is interesting. 

Probably just doesn't have the scouting contacts in the DSL and he's always been hesitant to give too much press to guys who haven't made it to the States yet.

Liranzo is very young and if you weren't following his rise throughout the season or heard about his exit velocities and background, he's easy to miss. 

That's why you have me!  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Probably just doesn't have the scouting contacts in the DSL and he's always been hesitant to give too much press to guys who haven't made it to the States yet.

Liranzo is very young and if you weren't following his rise throughout the season or heard about his exit velocities and background, he's easy to miss. 

That's why you have me!  

Yea I was thinking it was something like this.  He always seems to hesitant to do anything  for guys he hasn’t seen. 
 

And agreed…that’s why you provide the best list out there.   

 

[Frobby]

Law always has strong opinions.  Sometimes they’re even right.   I haven’t seen too many evaluators who think that Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar.  

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So Cowser is the left handed Pedro Cerrano right now. Can he improve on that? If he can’t, he’s going to be a bust. Teams just won’t throw him fastballs that often and when they do, he will be in a mode to hit the off speed stuff that power fastballs, especially the high fastball that so many are throwing, will just get blown right by him. 
 

I think part of his weakness at times on fastballs too is he's cheating on offspeed pitches which is why I've seen him struggle with good velocity.

I wish I had the whiff rates in the minors, but I never noticed a huge problem with him against breaking balls against righties. Now against lefties, sure, but most minor league lefties struggle with good left on left breaking balls.

I think a little more highly of him than Law does, but I agree 100% on his take on his defense. There is a some risk to Cowser's bat for sure, but you don't slash .300/.417/.520/.937 because you can't hit offspeed of breaking pitches at all. He may have more whiff than others, and I think he's going to be high strikeout guy, but he also can make some loud contact so I'm not quite as down on the bat as Law is right now. 

But as I've said before, there is definitely risk that he may end up a 4th outfielder/platoon guy if he can't improve on getting to velocity or hit lefthanders better. It's worth noting that while he misses a lot against lefties, he did hold his own a bit better last year slashing .253/.347/.398/.745 against them so there's hope.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Law always has strong opinions.  Sometimes they’re even right.   I haven’t seen too many evaluators who think that Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar.  

That was a bit surprising because I didn't talk to anyone, nor did I see any way that Holliday is betetr than Gunnar right now. In the future when Gunnar may lose a little quickness and needs to be at 3B to maximize his defensive value, perhaps, but I didn't see that elite quickness you would like to see from your major league shortstop and the arm is just ok, not well above average like Gunnar's.

[SemperFi]

2024 impact

"Holliday should see the majors sooner rather than later, although they’ll have to move some players around and bench someone to clear a spot. Kjerstad and/or Cowser should see time in the outfield, with Kjerstad being the better bet to produce in my view. If they need a starter, McDermott should be the first guy up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Seth Johnson appear this year in relief if he continues to progress in his return from Tommy John."

[SemperFi]

12. Kiefer Lord, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

 During the pandemic, he went online to find ways to increase his velocity and went from 78-80 mph in the spring of 2020 to the mid-90s this past spring. He’s reached 99 and has high spin rates on the fastball, curve, and slider, with a delivery that should allow him both to throw strikes and to start. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

I see why Law is down on Cowser relative to others, but Law still calls him a 55 defender in a corner with a 70 arm who can handle center on a short term basis, and a “good 4th outfielder right now” who can really hit fastballs. I see how that’s not a top 100 player, but that profile is still going to produce a ton of value unless he’s really, really bad against offspeed, even if he’s not a starter against LHP. And Law does still have him as the 1st prospect after Bradfield, the last Oriole on his top 100, so he’s not taking that bold of a position on him  

I don’t think Cowser has a 4+ WAR upside unless he makes some big strides but I feel pretty good about him being a 2-3 WAR complimentary player that checks a lot of good boxes. Lefty, really great eye (probably will benefit greatly from robo umps, however they ultimately get implemented), defense to play LF at OPACY or RF.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, SemperFi said:

12. Kiefer Lord, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

 During the pandemic, he went online to find ways to increase his velocity and went from 78-80 mph in the spring of 2020 to the mid-90s this past spring. He’s reached 99 and has high spin rates on the fastball, curve, and slider, with a delivery that should allow him both to throw strikes and to start. 

Yet there was a reason he was available still in the 3rd round. 

 

I'm not bashing on Lord because he might be a steal, but sometimes I think these guys get a little too enamored with a guy because they see certain data like spins rates, shapes and from hitters perspective EVs. 

All of that is good and it certainly gets us interested, but there are reasons why guys fall to where they fall. Now I didn't see Lord pitch outside of his college videos and he threw a ton of fastballs, something he'll have to adjust at the pro level. Hopefully it will come together but I think it's way too early to put him so high in a deep system like the Orioles. 

Hopefully Law will be proven right, but that's pretty high for a guy who put up a 6.19 ERA in college last year and has never thrown more than 75 innings in a season during which he had velocity drops. He's got major reliever risk currently.