Will striking out 40% of the time ....

[capyy]

Answering my own question, according to fangraphs:

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

 

"

For example, strikeout rate starts to communicate useful information in fewer than 100 PA while BABIP for a pitcher can take three years. The difference is the nature of the skill and the number of factors that influence the outcome of the play. With respect to strikeout rate, we’re only talking about the batter and pitcher’s ability to make or allow contact (or let strikes go by). When you’re talking about BABIP, you’re adding in quality of contact, direction, weather, defensive ability, luck, etc. That means there’s more room for noise and things with less noise in the actual data generating process stabilize more quickly. There are also diminishing returns. Having 20 PA is better than five PA, but having 520 PA is only a little better than having 505 PA.

 

"

So I would assume that at 30+ plate appearances that strikeout rate does have some meaning, but is far from conclusive in any way. 

[capyy]

According to that same fangraphs article:

 

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

“Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics:

• 70 BF: Strikeout rate
• 170 BF: Walk rate
• 640 BF: HBP rate
• 670 BF: Single rate
• 1450 BF: XBH rate
• 1320 BF: HR rate

• 630 BF: AVG
• 540 BF: OBP
• 550 AB: SLG
• 630 AB: ISO

• 70 BIP: GB rate
• 70 BIP: FB rate
• 650 BIP: LD rate
• 400 FB: HR per FB
• 2000 BIP: BABIP

 

I would point out that spring training games likely have less meaning than real games in general, so this probably isn't perfect for ST.

 

Regardless, strikeout rate stabilizes quickly so I would bet that Elias some concern there. 

[capyy]

No doubt the concern is in the long term mitigated by the fact that Holliday has never had those problems, just saying it could increase the odds they give him some time in AAA. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

How can he disagree when I did not state a position.   I ask a question.

Your opinion is stated because of your history and the idea that you even asked the question to begin with.

[Moose Milligan]

43 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

How is it a small sample size? Spring training is half over.

I don’t think ST stats really matter at all. 

[RZNJ]

43 minutes ago, capyy said:

Can someone explain to me why the 90 plate appearances in AAA is treated as fact but the 35 plate appearances in spring training is completely meaningless? Both seem small to me. At what # of plate appearances does the data start to have meaning? I think I've read K rate becomes meaningful at a lower # of appearances than other metrics, so that # concerns me a little. 

Holliday has 10 PA vs LHP.   He has 1 hit, one walk, and 7 strikeouts.  Very SSS but he has also looked uncomfortable as far as seeing the ball and judging the strike zone against them.  I have little doubt he'll adjust but they might ease him in against LH starters to begin with.

[capyy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t think ST stats really matter at all. 

I would guess this heavily depends on the player and the stat. If someone is OPSing 1500 but is mashing AA guys and MLB guys who haven't ramped up velocity yet, with great BABIP, that probably doesn't matter much at all. Or if a seasoned vet is starting off slow. 

But if its a skill related stat for someone trying to make the team, i would guess it does have some meaning (assuming sufficient sample size). For example Jackson Holliday is up there trying to get hits, not strikeout. So why wouldn't that have some meaning? (again, assuming there's sample size).

There's a large gray area between solid evidence and meaningless data, I think a lot of ST stuff falls somewhere in that gray. 

[wildcard]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your opinion is stated because of your history and the idea that you even asked the question to begin with.

Bad assumption on your part.   I jusi asked the question to see what the OH thought about it.

Edited March 13 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, wildcard said:

Bad assumption on your part.   I jusi asked the question to see what the OH thought about it.

Assuming you are overrating  a SSS is never a bad assumption.

The question doesn’t even need to be asked.  I doubt anyone even knew Westburg was striking out a lot because it means nothing.

Edited March 14 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, capyy said:

No doubt the concern is in the long term mitigated by the fact that Holliday has never had those problems, just saying it could increase the odds they give him some time in AAA. 

I keep going back to Gunnar's 2023.  How long did it take for him to find his groove?

To move up the food chain, Acuna's K% saw significant improvement.  Will the real Acuna please stand up?

The variables between AAA, ST, and MLB are all over the map.  Different competitive goals and environments. 

[foxfield]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that would be a clear indication that the O's don't actually value winning very highly.

If they do something like that and then fail to make the playoffs...ohh boy.

Must be tough for you. What with Elias getting the Os rebuild done effectively, the team exceeding expectations and the owner in the process of going away. 

[spleen1015]

Wong just hit a double right after Holliday pops out to 2B.

I bet Wong makes the OD roster and they ship Holliday back to AA. Has a #1 prospect ever popped out to 2B?

So much pessimism around here.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, capyy said:

Can someone explain to me why the 90 plate appearances in AAA is treated as fact but the 35 plate appearances in spring training is completely meaningless? Both seem small to me. At what # of plate appearances does the data start to have meaning? I think I've read K rate becomes meaningful at a lower # of appearances than other metrics, so that # concerns me a little. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

Edit: I see you already found this.

Also, remember these are the points where the signal becomes more meaningful than the noise, and is using regular season PAs.

Edited March 13 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t think ST stats really matter at all. 

From the Fangraphs article you can see that even the numbers that are quickest to have meaning are in numbers of reps you rarely get in spring training. So, combined with varying levels of competition and other factors, no I wouldn't put any meaning in them.

Except, perhaps, as in indicator of health in certain cases.

[capyy]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From the Fangraphs article you can see that even the numbers that are quickest to have meaning are in numbers of reps you rarely get in spring training. So, combined with varying levels of competition and other factors, no I wouldn't put any meaning in them.

Except, perhaps, as in indicator of health in certain cases.

it's not that it has no meaning and then it hits the number in the article and it suddenly has meaning. it gradually gains more and more meaning. so even if its below that #, it often still has some meaning. it's this:

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Also, remember these are the points where the signal becomes more meaningful than the noise, and is using regular season PAs.