2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Safelykept said:

I see it as the justification is not what he did 2017-2019 so much as Adley needs a couple of days off a week, so it might as well be against a Left Hander

Exactly.

It's the backup catcher, why are you even trying to decipher if they have aged into having reverse splits?

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

I see it as the justification is not what he did 2017-2019 so much as Adley needs a couple of days off a week, so it might as well be against a Left Hander

That’s fine.  McCann has to play 40ish games and if you want them to be vs lefties, whatever. 

The problem with that is he is on pace to play way more than he should and they seemingly want to make sure he plays against lefties vs playing other players more.

To me this is a 2 fold issue.  One is that Adley needs more rest (and yes I know he’s hitting well as a DH but we don’t need him wearing down).

Second is that they need to stop treating McCann as if his bat vs lefties is better than say Stowers’ bat vs lefties and I 100% believe they think that’s true because they are so match up crazy.

Edited June 12 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

I see it as the justification is not what he did 2017-2019 so much as Adley needs a couple of days off a week, so it might as well be against a Left Hander

This. Also the pitchers splits matter as does the splits of Adley and/or the DH. We have a similar situation with Urias: his production might be better vs RHP but if he is good enough vs LHP then he can replace a guy with an even bigger split. Adley's reverse split this year makes that complicated but with Adley at DH you are pushing Mullins/Stowers to the bench vs LHP. If those are the matchups you are trying to avoid, that may be a bigger win than McCann's reverse splits.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine.  McCann has to play 40ish games and if you want them to be vs lefties, whatever. 

The problem with that is he is on pace to play way more than he should and they seemingly want to make sure he plays against lefties vs playing other players more.

To me this is a 2 fold issue.  One is that Adley needs more rest (and yes I know he’s hitting well as a DH but we don’t need him wearing down).

Second is that they need to stop treating McCann as if his bat lefties is better than say Stowers’ bat vs lefties and I 100% believe they think that’s true because they are so match up crazy.

I think it comes down to,

McCann’s bat versus LHP, and resting at Adley at DH

verus

Who else’s bat to DH versus LHP. Mullins?  Urias?  O’Hearn?  Stowers?

Resting Adley has huge value. This is why for the playoffs I’d want us to have a vet big RH bopper for DH vs LHP. That’s TBD. JD Martinez???

[Sports Guy]

McCann is on pace to play 60ish games…that’s way too many for him.

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann is on pace to play 60ish games…that’s way too many for him.

If it gives us a rested Adley at the end of the season and into the playoffs, it’s worth it. I don’t get the outrage of McCann’s playing time while we have a .667 winning percentage. Let him play 60 games, and let Adley stay fresh. 

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann is on pace to play 60ish games…that’s way too many for him.

I don’t man, Adley’s numbers DH’ing say otherwise. 

For the playoffs, Adley should catch every game. For the regular season, McCann is a fine option all things considered. 

Maybe the plan is to bring Mayo up in September and have him be our RH DH vs LHP. He’s gotta be healthy and producing. 

[Safelykept]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine.  McCann has to play 40ish games and if you want them to be vs lefties, whatever. 

The problem with that is he is on pace to play way more than he should and they seemingly want to make sure he plays against lefties vs playing other players more.

To me this is a 2 fold issue.  One is that Adley needs more rest (and yes I know he’s hitting well as a DH but we don’t need him wearing down).

Second is that they need to stop treating McCann as if his bat lefties is better than say Stowers’ bat vs lefties and I 100% believe they think that’s true because they are so match up crazy.

Agree with most of this, but they( the Administration) are match up crazy ( they love their platoons and they love their LH bats thats what applies. For me the more rest we get Adley (DH) the better( especially if their trying to extend him) As far as Stowers were does he play Today for example with Adley catching, its like trying to fit 5 pins in four holes if you DH him or Santander and let him play right, what about O'Hearn. He's not going to play Left with Hayes hitting the way he has last month. You could give Mounty a Bench day, which gets you a big RHbat off the bench, but wait that becomes a problem because hes been going well. And oh by the way Stowers is a little banged up. I know one thing for sure this roster management was a lot easier when we sucked.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McCann is on pace to play 60ish games…that’s way too many for him.

Actually, he’s on pace to start 66 games.  The team is 18-9 (.667) when he starts, 26-13 (.667) when Adley starts.   If we can use McCann more without degrading the W-L record, what’s the problem?  All it does is keep Adley fresher.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Agree with most of this, but they( the Administration) are match up crazy ( they love their platoons and they love their LH bats thats what applies. For me the more rest we get Adley (DH) the better( especially if their trying to extend him) As far as Stowers were does he play Today for example with Adley catching, its like trying to fit 5 pins in four holes if you DH him or Santander and let him play right, what about O'Hearn. He's not going to play Left with Hayes hitting the way he has last month. You could give Mounty a Bench day, which gets you a big RHbat off the bench, but wait that becomes a problem because hes been going well. And oh by the way Stowers is a little banged up. I know one thing for sure this roster management was a lot easier when we sucked.

It’s really not matchup crazy. It’s who is a better option versus LHP to play over McCann on the current 26 man roster?  Or even in AAA?  Norby?  Mayo?  Someone has to come off the 26 man for them. I’m sure that will be our 28 man roster move in September if things stay the same. 

Plus, huge plus, Adley gets to DH. 

McCann at C vs LHP wins out by a country mile. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

Actually, he’s on pace to start 66 games.  The team is 18-9 (.667) when he starts, 26-13 (.667) when Adley starts.   If we can use McCann more without degrading the W-L record, what’s the problem?  All it does is keep Adley fresher.

That stat (the record) is a completely irrelevant stat. This is a very good team. McCann isn’t as good as Adley because we win the same amount of games.(I know you aren’t saying that but pointing that out is so bad)

McCann isn’t good. He’s a below average defensive catcher who can’t hit. We shouldn’t be championing the idea of playing him a lot of games.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s really not matchup crazy. It’s who is a better option versus LHP to play over McCann on the current 26 man roster?  Or even in AAA?  Norby?  Mayo?  Someone has to come off the 26 man for them. I’m sure that will be our 28 man roster move in September if things stay the same. 

Plus, huge plus, Adley gets to DH. 

McCann at C vs LHP wins out by a country mile. 

What are you talking about?

McCann has a SUB 500 OPS vs lefties…most hitters are a better option. 

[Safelykept]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s really not matchup crazy. It’s who is a better option versus LHP to play over McCann on the current 26 man roster?  Or even in AAA?  Norby?  Mayo?  Someone has to come off the 26 man for them. I’m sure that will be our 28 man roster move in September if things stay the same. 

Plus, huge plus, Adley gets to DH. 

McCann at C vs LHP wins out by a country mile. 

Yes of course Adley has very special bat skills for a catcher so like Frobby said in above post if where winning winning, show me the burn> If McCaan catches 60 games its not like Adley not playing. Hes going as few a day off as anybody

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I believe @DrungoHazewoodhas stated in the past that the generality that RHB hit lefties better than righties is so strong that almost all reverse splits are just temporary anomalies that should be disregarded as having any predictive value.  Drungo can correct me if I’ve misstated what he has stated previously.  And perhaps that’s what the Orioles think.  

Yes, that's about right. I think there's a bit of... we'll call it interpretation in that opinion. You'd need thousands of PAs in very specific conditions to definitively prove that's right.

But if you ran a simulation where every player had a fixed platoon advantage (say, everyone has an OPS 15% better against opposite-handed pitchers) the observed results of a 100 years of play would be indistinguishable from what we see in reality. In other words, you'd get a distribution of results centered at 15% better, with some players 30% better, and a few with observed reverse splits. But the underlying reality would be everyone has the same true talent splits. 

Which is not the same as saying there's zero variation on platoon split ability, just that it's small and dwarfed by differences in overall hitting ability. So small that you'd be better off assuming everyone has the same split.

One other thing, I think it's plausible that players who never get to face same-sided pitchers may see that ability atrophy. At least temporarily. So if you take a John Lowenstein and suddenly have him get a bunch of PAs against lefties he might do worse than what's typical because Earl and Joe Altobelli wouldn't let him face a lefty for years. But even with that I'm not confident that would be more than a short-term blip.

Edited June 12 by DrungoHazewood

[Safelykept]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What are you talking about?

McCann has a SUB 500 OPS vs lefties…most hitters are a better option. 

Agree with that 100%, problem is most hitters are not backup catchers.