2024 Prospect Power Rankings

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Man, you are addicted to Twitter “experts”.  He’s a 5’ll fire plug who has no arm 12 CS of 80 attempted base stealers.  He has no positional value whatsoever.  He’s a bat only “prospect” who is 20 and hitting .226 in low A.   Boy, he needs to hit a ton to be on the prospect radar.  
 

Ok, he’s been discussed.

Can't argue with any of that. Mordan is a 100% bat first player, but I'm sure some X (twitter) expert has some formula that makes him one of the top ten players in all of the minor leagues to become a Hall of Famer. lol

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Can't argue with any of that. Mordan is a 100% bat first player, but I'm sure some X (twitter) expert has some formula that makes him one of the top ten players in all of the minor leagues to become a Hall of Famer. lol

Do you know that those “twitter experts” are less qualified to give their opinion than you are?  What I mean is, who is to say they aren’t getting first hand reports and things like that? Why discount the data they have and are using? You laugh it off when you have no idea what their rationale is or how they come to their conclusions?

He may not have a lot of positional value but he has a very good walk rate and it seems like he has solid power numbers. 
 

I stand by the thought that I think he should get mentioned.  I would much rather have a 20 y/o putting up his numbers vs a guy like Billy Cook. (Using your method of “who would I rather have”?)

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you know that those “twitter experts” are less qualified to give their opinion than you are?  What I mean is, who is to say they aren’t getting first hand reports and things like that? Why discount the data they have and are using? You laugh it off when you have no idea what their rationale is or how they come to their conclusions?

He may not have a lot of positional value but he has a very good walk rate and it seems like he has solid power numbers. 
 

I stand by the thought that I think he should get mentioned.  I would much rather have a 20 y/o putting up his numbers vs a guy like Billy Cook. (Using your method of “who would I rather have”?)

Believe and enjoy reading who you like. We explained why Mordan is not a prospect or would need a lot of bat value to become a prospect. I'd personally rather have a guy who may not have much positional value in Cook, but I know he can hit upper level pitchers.

Saying that, I don't think either are really more than 35 level prospects.

[RZNJ]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I feel like Mordan is really underrated and not discussed nearly enough. 

A lot of the prospect guys I follow love his batted ball stats.

@Tony-OH

Don’t pick on SG’s Twitter guys.  See all of the details he provided?   They love his batted ball stats.  Ok, what are they?   Does one have to pay to find out?     
 

 

[Warehouse]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

@Tony-OH

Don’t pick on SG’s Twitter guys.  See all of the details he provided?   They love his batted ball stats.  Ok, what are they?   Does one have to pay to find out?     
 

 

I just did some twitter searching - seems like good swing decisions but not great contact.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/prospect-tonight-104760187
 

Aneudis Mordán (BAL/C): 3-3, 2 HR (7), BB

Mordán made waves in the early going before getting cold. He's another product of the Orioles revamped international system. It seems like they can't miss with position players. He's in the 95th percentile with a ZSw-OSw of 51.5%. I pretty much look for prospects to break 40% to deem their swing decisions as "good". What's interesting is Mordán has a pretty high 48.5% swing rate. He's aggressive, but he's got such a good eye he can get to a double digit walk rate anyway. That's a very bullish indicator for me. It's not all rainbows and butterflies though as he has a 28.5% whiff rate and 13.8% SwStr rate, so his K rate will be elevated. For Mordán it comes down to the power. He looks like an exciting OBP+power prospect in the early going that probably needs more recognition. He's already splitting near even time between catcher and 1B, which usually means he'll end up in the 1B/DH route if it's already happening in the lower minors.

[Tony-OH]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:43 PM, Tony-OH said:

These "power rankings" are a fun way to track prospects throughout the year. They are not "official" prospect rankings that are completed at the end of the year after a full evaluations. To be eligible for the list, a player must play at least one game on an active roster. (Updated as of Jun 17th) 

RK	Name	POS	Prev		Team	INJ
1	Jackson Holliday	SS	1		Nor (AAA)
2	Samuel Basallo	C	2		BOW (AA)
3	Coby Mayo	3B/RF	3		ABN (A+)	Rehab
4	Heston Kjerstad	RF/1B	4		Nor (AAA)
5	Cade Povich	LHP	5		Baltimore
6	Dylan Beavers	OF	7		BOW (AA)
7	Chayce McDermott	RHP	8		Nor (AAA)
8	Enrique Bradfield Jr.	CF	9		ABN (A+)
9	Luis DeLeon	LHP	6		ABN (A+)
10	Connor Norby	2B	10		Nor (AAA)
11	Jackson Baumeister	RHP	11		ABN (A+)
12	Michael Forret	RHP	12		ABN (A+)
13	Leandro Arias	SS	15		DEL (A)
14	Mac Horvath	2B/3B	13		ABN (A+)
15	Thomas Sosa	OF	14		DEL (A)
16	Matthew Etzel	OF	18		BOW (AA)
17	Seth Johnson	RHP	21		BOW (AA)
18	Trace Bright	RHP	17		BOW (AA)
19	Brandon Young	RHP	22		BOW (AA)
20	Cameron Weston	RHP	23		BOW (AA)
21	Edgar Portes	RHP	24		ABN (A+)
22	Braylin Tavera	CF	19		DEL (A)	7-Day IL
23	Jud Fabian	OF	29		BOW (AA)
24	Luis Almeyda	SS	16		FCL O's
25	Emilio Sanchez	SS	20		DSL Orange
26	Creed Willems	C	26		ABN (A+)
27	Kade Strowd	RHP	28		Nor (AAA)
28	Max Wagner	3B	27		BOW (AA)
29	Billy Cook	INF/OF	UR		Nor (AAA)
30	Aron Estrada	INF/OF	UR		DEL (A)
	Bubble Players
	Maverick Handley	C			Nor (AAA)
	Matt Krook	LHP			Nor (AAA)	7-Day IL
	Carlos Tavera	RHP			Nor (AAA)
	Frederick Bencosme	2B			BOW (AA)
	Silas Ardoin	C			BOW (AA)
	Alex Pham	RHP			BOW (AA)
	Moises Chace	RHP	25		ABN (A+)
	Juan Nunez	RHP			ABN (A+)
	Levi Wells	RHP			ABN (A+)	7-Day IL
	Yaqui Rivera	RHP			ABN (A+)
	Carter Baumler	RHP			ABN (A+)
	Stiven Acevedo	OF	30		DEL (A)
	Nesto German	RHP			DEL (A)
	Jacob Cravey	RHP			DEL (A)
	Trey Gibson	RHP			DEL (A)
	Jesus Palacios	RHP			FCL O's
	Edwin Amparo	INF			FCL O's
	Miguel Rodriguez	C			FCL O's
	Elis Cuevas	IF/OF			FCL O's
	Stiven Martinez	OF			DSL Orange
	Adriander Mejia	C			DSL Orange
	Elvin Garcia	SS			DSL Black
	José Mejia	2B			DSL Black

For tracking purposes.

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

I just did some twitter searching - seems like good swing decisions but not great contact.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/prospect-tonight-104760187
 

Aneudis Mordán (BAL/C): 3-3, 2 HR (7), BB

Mordán made waves in the early going before getting cold. He's another product of the Orioles revamped international system. It seems like they can't miss with position players. He's in the 95th percentile with a ZSw-OSw of 51.5%. I pretty much look for prospects to break 40% to deem their swing decisions as "good". What's interesting is Mordán has a pretty high 48.5% swing rate. He's aggressive, but he's got such a good eye he can get to a double digit walk rate anyway. That's a very bullish indicator for me. It's not all rainbows and butterflies though as he has a 28.5% whiff rate and 13.8% SwStr rate, so his K rate will be elevated. For Mordán it comes down to the power. He looks like an exciting OBP+power prospect in the early going that probably needs more recognition. He's already splitting near even time between catcher and 1B, which usually means he'll end up in the 1B/DH route if it's already happening in the lower minors.

Whoever that is certainly has access to data that we don't. Mordan does have some decent hit tools to work from, but as a short guy with no positional value, he's going to need a big jump in game power. He does have some raw power to work from but he's just not a guy for me because I just don't know what he is at the major league level.

That was always what I was taught when looking at guys. What are they when they get there? What will team value about them. In today's game where positional flexibility is valued from those 40 level utility players, unless a guy projects as a regular major leaguer, then they have a tough road ahead. 

[Tony-OH]

Updated now through the top 40. Don't get too caught up in who is better from 31-40 though. That's more for fun purposes of following the young guys and a few guys just off the top 30.

Did I miss anyone in the "players to watch"? Anyone you're following that is not on the list?

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, RZNJ said:

@Tony-OH

Don’t pick on SG’s Twitter guys.  See all of the details he provided?   They love his batted ball stats.  Ok, what are they?   Does one have to pay to find out?     
 

 

I'm really not trying to pick on anyone and I actually appreciate the reports that @Sports Guy provides even if I may not weigh them as strongly as he seems too. All information is good to have and unfortunately, all we have is FanGraphs and baseball reference to go of for good prospects statistical information. The rest is my good 'ol eyes on vide scouting. I wish I had access to statcast data for all of the prospects. I'd love to be able to use that as well.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm really not trying to pick on anyone and I actually appreciate the reports that @Sports Guy provides even if I may not weigh them as strongly as he seems too. All information is good to have and unfortunately, all we have is FanGraphs and baseball reference to go of for good prospects statistical information. The rest is my good 'ol eyes on vide scouting. I wish I had access to statcast data for all of the prospects. I'd love to be able to use that as well.

I’m not really weighing them heavily but as you said, it’s more info and these guys have their formulas and data and info that they use. My guess is most of them are more data driven and really don’t have much scout intel but I still believe it provides value.

But a high walk rate and good power is being shown by Mordan at age 20, so I think that at least warrants consideration for being mentioned and talked about for this list.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not really weighing them heavily but as you said, it’s more info and these guys have their formulas and data and info that they use. My guess is most of them are more data driven and really don’t have much scout intel but I still believe it provides value.

But a high walk rate and good power is being shown by Mordan at age 20, so I think that at least warrants consideration for being mentioned and talked about for this list.

Thanks for sharing all of the formula / data prospect trackers, I don’t have the patience to follow them on Twitter so I appreciate the updates here. I do put value in that when projecting offense and they do have data that we don’t have. 

RZNJ and Tony have a good point that the robo scout types are generally not going to consider defense (at least not fully), and as everyone knows that’s a massive difference in value for C v. 1B/DH. So for Mordan I’d only really put weight on the robo scout if it said he was a good prospect even as solely a 1B, and I’m guessing he’s not. 

I am curious to track development of C like Willems and Mordan because I think any C in the system behind Basallo are prime trade chips. If Mordan has good offensive data but bad defense, seems like a nice guy to try to sell another team on at the trade deadline. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not really weighing them heavily but as you said, it’s more info and these guys have their formulas and data and info that they use. My guess is most of them are more data driven and really don’t have much scout intel but I still believe it provides value.

But a high walk rate and good power is being shown by Mordan at age 20, so I think that at least warrants consideration for being mentioned and talked about for this list.

My big issue with him besides the zero defensive value is he's batting .227 and has only 5 doubles which tells me he's probably a mistake hitter. That's a big red flag for me as well when I look at stats, especially lower level guys. Guys with decent home run numbers and low 2B numbers typically are guys who feast on those middle-middle pitches, but are not making consistent hard contact to get those 2B numbers up.

Now I'm going off memory here and haven't really watched him a ton this year running, but he's pretty dang slow from what I remember. So now we have a short, slow, 1B/DH who has some ability to make decent swing decisions on Low-A hitters, but hits for a low average and doesn't show a lot of extra base power.

So is he a guy that you perhaps follow to see if he's a guy that develops more game power and allows his bat to carry him up the chain? Perhaps. But I just don't know what he would be in the majors besides a right-handed DH if he develops more power. How many are those are now in the game?

I mean, perhaps his absolute upside is a Yermín Mercedes type, but I imagine if he is a late bloomer guy who suddenly starts to rake at the upper levels, it will probably be for his 2nd or 3rd organization as those guys typically bounce around.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My big issue with him besides the zero defensive value is he's batting .227 and has only 5 doubles which tells me he's probably a mistake hitter. That's a big red flag for me as well when I look at stats, especially lower level guys. Guys with decent home run numbers and low 2B numbers typically are guys who feast on those middle-middle pitches, but are not making consistent hard contact to get those 2B numbers up.

Now I'm going off memory here and haven't really watched him a ton this year running, but he's pretty dang slow from what I remember. So now we have a short, slow, 1B/DH who has some ability to make decent swing decisions on Low-A hitters, but hits for a low average and doesn't show a lot of extra base power.

So is he a guy that you perhaps follow to see if he's a guy that develops more game power and allows his bat to carry him up the chain? Perhaps. But I just don't know what he would be in the majors besides a right-handed DH if he develops more power. How many are those are now in the game?

I mean, perhaps his absolute upside is a Yermín Mercedes type, but I imagine if he is a late bloomer guy who suddenly starts to rake at the upper levels, it will probably be for his 2nd or 3rd organization as those guys typically bounce around.

Another “interesting” thing about Mordan is how he OPS .582 in his first year in the DSL and had to repeat.  In his 2nd year he had a .555 OPS.  Both years he showed virtually no power.   Then last year an .894 OPS with lots of power.   Maybe he made swing changes.  Maybe he hit the weight room.  Maybe he got stronger.  It’s just a little odd that his first two years were that bad and then ………..

[Sports Guy]

Convo with some of these about Mordan before the season started.  Skepticism for sure but things they liked:

 

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My big issue with him besides the zero defensive value is he's batting .227 and has only 5 doubles which tells me he's probably a mistake hitter. That's a big red flag for me as well when I look at stats, especially lower level guys. Guys with decent home run numbers and low 2B numbers typically are guys who feast on those middle-middle pitches, but are not making consistent hard contact to get those 2B numbers up.

Now I'm going off memory here and haven't really watched him a ton this year running, but he's pretty dang slow from what I remember. So now we have a short, slow, 1B/DH who has some ability to make decent swing decisions on Low-A hitters, but hits for a low average and doesn't show a lot of extra base power.

So is he a guy that you perhaps follow to see if he's a guy that develops more game power and allows his bat to carry him up the chain? Perhaps. But I just don't know what he would be in the majors besides a right-handed DH if he develops more power. How many are those are now in the game?

I mean, perhaps his absolute upside is a Yermín Mercedes type, but I imagine if he is a late bloomer guy who suddenly starts to rake at the upper levels, it will probably be for his 2nd or 3rd organization as those guys typically bounce around.

And that’s all fine. I’m not arguing that he should be a top 20 prospect or anything.  Just feel he could be a guy that we are sleeping on at least a little bit.