Cade Povich 2024

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

But the "Billy Boxscore" stuff was irritating, and he should have stopped when you told him to.   

I can't be the only one who though Billy Boxscore was message board gold, was I? Don't get me wrong. He was over the top. He basically posted like an angry boomer who got onto the internets for the first time. I'm happy that Tony put an end to it (even though I did find a couple of his posts very interesting).

But Billy Boxscore, when referring to SG, was just hilarious to me.

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The IL is walking 4.7 per nine, which is kind of astronomical. Across the minors walks are over 4.0 per nine everywhere except the AA Southern League. That was the case last year, too. Was a little lower in '22. But if you go back to '19 everyone (except a couple rookie leagues) were under 4.0. Is this because of the auto ball/strike system? I think I haven't been paying close enough attention to know.

For comparison, the Majors have been over 4.0 walks per nine just twice and just barely, in 1949-50. And in the last 60-70 years have only been over 3.5 a very small handful of times.

So the International League sees more walks this year than any year in MLB history, and it's not close. They're walking 44% more batters than the Majors are in '24. It would be nice if some aspiring analyst went and looked to see if AAA pitchers walk rates fall upon promotion to the majors, and vice versa.

Keep in mind that the International League uses robo-umps.   Major league umps call 12% of true balls as strikes, but only 3% of true strikes as balls (per Ump Scorecard).   So, IL pitchers are probably getting a much stingier strike zone than they see anywhere else.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Keep in mind that the International League uses robo-umps.   Major league umps call 12% of true balls as strikes, but only 3% of true strikes as balls (per Ump Scorecard).   So, IL pitchers are probably getting a much stingier strike zone than they see anywhere else.

 

Yea, that's my assumption. But this is probably also why there's talk of tweaking the real book strike zone (or how the robo-umps call it) because the real strike zone means there's going to be WAAAAY more walks than at any point in major league history. My guess is that the IL strike zone ported to MLB would result in runs jumping up to around 5 per game. And probably a non-linear effect where some pitchers who currently have borderline command quickly exit the league.

Imagine Felix Bautista never getting what's now a close call on a ball/strike.

Edited May 10 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, that's my assumption. But this is probably also why there's talk of tweaking the real book strike zone (or how the robo-umps call it) because the real strike zone means there's going to be WAAAAY more walks than at any point in major league history. My guess is that the IL strike zone ported to MLB would result in runs jumping up to around 5 per game. And probably a non-linear effect where some pitchers who currently have borderline command quickly exit the league.

Imagine Felix Bautista never getting what's now a close call on a ball/strike.

My view is, the game needs more offense, and if it can be generated by enforcing a true strike zone, I'm for it.  I think major league pitchers will adjust and the increase in walks will be significant but not as big as would occur if they just ocntinued throwing balls in the same spots where they were previously getting incorrect calls.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Frobby]

WTF is the “formulated consensus?”  Sounds like nonsense.  

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

My view is, the game needs more offense, and if it can be generated by enforcing a true strike zone, I'm for it.  I think major league pitchers will adjust and the increase in walks will be significant but not as big as would occur if they just ocntinued throwing balls in the same spots where they were previously getting incorrect calls.

That's an interesting point of view, that baseball needs more offense. The all-time MLB average runs/game is about 4.7, but that includes a bunch of very early seasons with 6, 8, 10+ runs/game. Since 1900 (and also since WWII) the average is about 4.4 runs/game.

So far this year the Majors are averaging 4.34, and as the weather warms up it will almost certainly nudge up towards 4.5 or 4.6. Since 2016 every season has been at or above the post-1900 averages for runs scored per game.

Even at the height of the PED era runs were only over 5.00 three times, and never more than the 5.14 of 2000. I think that increasing walks to 2024 IL levels would put the majors right around the 2000 runs scored level, if not a bit more.

Edited May 11 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

WTF is the “formulated consensus?”  Sounds like nonsense.  

They don't let stuff on the internet unless it's been thoroughly vetted.

[Sports Guy]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

WTF is the “formulated consensus?”  Sounds like nonsense.  

Last years I posted about the PARS list. StS is another prospect ranking system that they use lots of different advanced stats.

These 2 just joined together and did the Avengers thing and came up with a combined list using their criteria.

Its probably a lot more valid than subjective rankings done because of draft status and “what you think”.

That said, it’s also based off of a SSS of stats, so there is only so much to take from it.

I do know both of these systems liked Povich last year too.

[Just Regular]

Some Szymborski context hype for Povich being the best in the Internatlonal League in ERA by a lot.      Ibid K-bb to any inclined to weigh that heavily.

 Dan Szymborski: I think some of the perception is that people dont’ necessarily get just how massive the difference in offense between AAA and MLB is right

 Dan Szymborski: MLB is at 4.3 R/G now. International League is 5.2 and Pacific Coast at 5.8

 Dan Szymborski: Basically a AAA pitcher’s translation at the moment is their actual AAA numbers

 Dan Szymborski: while the difference in translation for AAA hitter and MLB hitter is more akin to the typical relationship between AA and MLB

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Some Szymborski context hype for Povich being the best in the Internatlonal League in ERA by a lot.      Ibid K-bb to any inclined to weigh that heavily.

 Dan Szymborski: I think some of the perception is that people dont’ necessarily get just how massive the difference in offense between AAA and MLB is right

 Dan Szymborski: MLB is at 4.3 R/G now. International League is 5.2 and Pacific Coast at 5.8

 Dan Szymborski: Basically a AAA pitcher’s translation at the moment is their actual AAA numbers

 Dan Szymborski: while the difference in translation for AAA hitter and MLB hitter is more akin to the typical relationship between AA and MLB

Someone needs to tell Jack Leiter about the even money exchange for pitchers between AAA and MLB.

[Rbiggs2525]

43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Someone needs to tell Jack Leiter about the even money exchange for pitchers between AAA and MLB.

Haha, I do think there is some inflated offensive numbers in AAA. I always assumed it was bad defense.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/10/2024 at 11:27 AM, LookinUp said:

I can't be the only one who though Billy Boxscore was message board gold, was I? Don't get me wrong. He was over the top. He basically posted like an angry boomer who got onto the internets for the first time. I'm happy that Tony put an end to it (even though I did find a couple of his posts very interesting).

But Billy Boxscore, when referring to SG, was just hilarious to me.

I'm loving the Billy Boxscore name.  Can we have a vote about a name change for SG to Billy Boxscore?

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm loving the Billy Boxscore name.  Can we have a vote about a name change for SG to Billy Boxscore?

I had some other names in mind but I’m down with Billy Boxscore.

[EdwinRip]

Another good outing from the kid.  He’s pitching remarkable considering the run scoring environment in AAA.