Cade Povich 2024

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You can’t throw a top 100 prospect ranking at a batter to get him out?

It’s ok to have differing opinions on players. Who knows who is right?

But… Povich is not like Coloumbe. Coloumbe throws way harder and has way better control. I’d say he’s even a step behind Vespi. Vespi has good MLB numbers and would probably be in the majors right if he wasn’t in our org. 

A Povich comp might be Drew Rom, but that’s my opinion and it’s nothing personal. 

Coloumbe's avg fastball velocity this year is 90.8 mph.  Last year it was 91.4.  You can figure that Povich will tick up in relief and likely throw harder than Danny.  The highest avg. velocity in 2023 for Vespi on any pitch was 90 mph on his fastball.

My only point in citing the prospect rankings and the front office is that they are both likely more adept at judging prospects than either of us are.  

[sportsfan8703]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

That is a ludicrous take.  At the AAA level, Zimmermann has a 4.28 ERA and averages 9.0 K/9.   Povich (including last year) has a 3.59 ERA and 11.4 K/9.   And he appears to be taking a giant leap this year.   

Also, one should never confuse raw fastball velocity with “stuff.”   It’s unrealistic to expect a big jump in velocity for Povich, but his stuff is just fine, thank you.  

As for Povich helping the Orioles in 2024, we’ll see.  Right now, most things are clicking for the O’s starters and even with GRod on the IL we have 6 guys for 5 slots.  Then there’s Wells, who will be back at some point.   So, I’d agree that Povich’s debut isn’t imminent despite his AAA success.  But he’s an enticing prospect, and no Zimmermann 2.0.   
 

 

I’m not trying to do some hot take. I’m just saying that I don’t see how Povich cracks this rotation over the next two seasons, and I dont think his relief profile is better than the LH relievers we have. So therefore I think his best value to us would be a trade to a 2nd division/rebuilding club. 

But all of this is just my opinion. And if people want to disagree that’s welcome. It’s a discussion board. If anyone thinks my opinion is a hot take, or it rubs then wrong personally, or goes against the group think, well that’s more on them. 

We’re all allowed to have opinions. Nothing personal. I love the winning and the new posters, but a simple differing opinion shouldn’t result in neg reps or devolving into Facebook level posts. 

I appreciate the discussion. Heck, sell me on Povich. Where does he fit in on our roster through 2025?

[ChosenOne21]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m not trying to do some hot take. I’m just saying that I don’t see how Povich cracks this rotation over the next two seasons, and I dont think his relief profile is better than the LH relievers we have. So therefore I think his best value to us would be a trade to a 2nd division/rebuilding club. 

But all of this is just my opinion. And if people want to disagree that’s welcome. It’s a discussion board. If anyone thinks my opinion is a hot take, or it rubs then wrong personally, or goes against the group think, well that’s more on them. 

We’re all allowed to have opinions. Nothing personal. I love the winning and the new posters, but a simple differing opinion shouldn’t result in neg reps or devolving into Facebook level posts. 

I appreciate the discussion. Heck, sell me on Povich. Where does he fit in on our roster through 2025?

Burnes and Means are probably gone next year, so that leaves us with Bradish, Rodriguez, Irvin, Kremer, Wells, and...definitely not Povich? Wells is pretty far from a lock to last in the rotation for an entire season. I don't think it's hard to see Povich in the rotation full-time. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m not trying to do some hot take. I’m just saying that I don’t see how Povich cracks this rotation over the next two seasons, and I dont think his relief profile is better than the LH relievers we have. So therefore I think his best value to us would be a trade to a 2nd division/rebuilding club. 

But all of this is just my opinion. And if people want to disagree that’s welcome. It’s a discussion board. If anyone thinks my opinion is a hot take, or it rubs then wrong personally, or goes against the group think, well that’s more on them. 

We’re all allowed to have opinions. Nothing personal. I love the winning and the new posters, but a simple differing opinion shouldn’t result in neg reps or devolving into Facebook level posts. 

I appreciate the discussion. Heck, sell me on Povich. Where does he fit in on our roster through 2025?

I’m just balking at “Zimmermann 2.0.”   Povich has way more upside than Zimmermann ever had, and much better stuff.   That’s just not a good comp at all.  

As to where Povich fits, we’ll see.  Most teams require 10-12 starters by the time a season is through.   We’ve used 7, and today will make 8 when Means starts.  It would be great if the team got through the year only using those 8, but don’t count on it.  And we’ll see what the O’s do to replace/retain Burnes and Means for 2025, and whether everyone wise stays healthy.   
 

[ChosenOne21]

Povich's floor might be Zimmermann. He's always been a more highly thought of prospect and the stuff is just better.

[Just Regular]

I think Povich actually has a pretty clear path, if he's good enough, to be the BAL innings pitched leader from 2025-2029.

Grayson Rodriguez apparently goes back to bubble wrap after one iteration of throwing 100 pitches against the Yankees, if it isn't even worse than that.

Aces are rented in short terms - Kremer/Mountcastle tier players may or may not get tendered at the end of Arb if the pipeline is robust.

We've had a lot of LH SP fail over time until Means broke the ice finding some extra velocity, but sometimes a guy somewhere on that Irvin-Matusz-Rom-Zimmermann spectrum can make it.

Being spoiled, Orioles player development maybe does make that Max Fried/Kyle Bradish kind of level performer out of him.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Burnes and Means are probably gone next year, so that leaves us with Bradish, Rodriguez, Irvin, Kremer, Wells, and...definitely not Povich? Wells is pretty far from a lock to last in the rotation for an entire season. I don't think it's hard to see Povich in the rotation full-time. 

And injuries do happen as we see with Means, Bradish and Wells already hitting the IL this year.  If Povich continues to pitch anything like he has (say low 3 ERA rsst of way), I wouldn't be surprised if he has a spot on the opening day rotation.

[baltfan]

13 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m not trying to do some hot take. I’m just saying that I don’t see how Povich cracks this rotation over the next two seasons, and I dont think his relief profile is better than the LH relievers we have. So therefore I think his best value to us would be a trade to a 2nd division/rebuilding club. 

But all of this is just my opinion. And if people want to disagree that’s welcome. It’s a discussion board. If anyone thinks my opinion is a hot take, or it rubs then wrong personally, or goes against the group think, well that’s more on them. 

We’re all allowed to have opinions. Nothing personal. I love the winning and the new posters, but a simple differing opinion shouldn’t result in neg reps or devolving into Facebook level posts. 

I appreciate the discussion. Heck, sell me on Povich. Where does he fit in on our roster through 2025?

The only issue I have with your take is it doesn’t seem like you are that familiar with the stuff.  You said Vespi and Coloumbe threw harder. That’s just patently wrong.  That makes me wonder how well you know Povich as well as the others. 

[Sports Guy]

Good numbers through 3 innings but again, he’s having issues throwing strikes.  Only 54% of his pitches for strikes and has thrown 61 pitches.

Still, only 1 run, 1 walk, 3 Ks and 4 hits. His “bad” continues to be good.

 

[HuskerFan]

@ Boxscore Billy

Now tonight was a bad S%.  First 7 hitters he fell behind to start.  13 or 14 overall.  And none of those were even close.  

Overall not a bad outing.  1 pitch to Matt Carpenter in the 5th is the difference. 

[Sports Guy]

Yea he didn’t turn it around. He threw a few more strikes but overall, another poor strike%.  
 

Still, the overall result isn’t bad but he can’t come to the majors throwing less than 60% of his pitches for strikes.  
 

I do feel if he does this in the past, he gives up a lot more runs and doesn’t go 5 or 6 IP…so, it’s still a step in the right direction.

[Frobby]

He may be getting a little fatigued.  I’m interested to see if he starts on Sunday, and if so, how he does. With the Monday off days, starters get 5 days rest most weeks except when they make a Tuesday start, in which case their next start typically is on Sunday on four days’ rest.  Povich did that once already this season and fared well, but now he’s been logging a good number of innings and it will be more challenging.  And facing the same team twice in a row isn’t easy.  

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

He may be getting a little fatigued.  I’m interested to see if he starts on Sunday, and if so, how he does. With the Monday off days, starters get 5 days rest most weeks except when they make a Tuesday start, in which case their next start typically is on Sunday on four days’ rest.  Povich did that once already this season and fared well, but now he’s been logging a good number of innings and it will be more challenging.  And facing the same team twice in a row isn’t easy.  

What evidence exists that he may be a getting a little fatigued?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What evidence exists that he may be a getting a little fatigued?

Skimpy evidence, which is why I said “he may…” rather than “I think he is…”.  It’s more a theory than a factual assertion.  He’s thrown the second-most innings in the International League, his pitch count has been increased from earlier this season, and his performance has been going down a little the last three outings.   That’s all I’ve got.   

[Tony-OH]

On 5/3/2024 at 10:38 AM, CaptainRedbeard said:

Povich is not really comparable at all to Zimmerman or Rom. Povich doesn’t have a ton of velo on his fastball, but still more than those two and much better spin rate. Zimmerman and Rom really only have plus sliders, and everything else is bad, and Rom didn’t even throw his changeup. 

Povich a full arsenal of 5 pitches and his fastball/cutter combo for hard offerings are much better than the typical junkballer lefty that gets exposed at the MLB level, even if they end up below average overall.

Arsenal-wise, Povich is more similar to Irvin than anybody else the Orioles have had recently, and he’s probably still got a better 4 seamer than Irvin (Irvin maybe better velo, but much worse spin). Povich doesn’t have the sinker but has a better curve and a slider/sweeper that Irvin doesn’t have, so he has much more upside for swing and miss. But there’s a huge difference in approach obviously, as Irvin is a strike-thrower and Povich is much more of a nibbler. 

Thank you for saving me some typing. My only nitpick is Povich is working on a cutter to offset his fastball and I'm not sure that Povich is a nibbler vs he doesn't have great command yet. 

Comparing him to Rom or even Zimmermann is off point for sure. Povich is much better pitching prospect then either of them.

He's dominating both righties and lefties right now. The Vespi comparison is silly as well. Povich probably could be a very good reliever for the Orioles right now, but he's definitely more value as SP depth while he keeps working on his command. He's definitely next up if the Orioles need a starter.