Colton Cowser 2024

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

I know there is a tendency to look for supporting evidence once you have already formed your opinion on something.  But here is my issue with Cowser - he seems like the most un-clutch hitter, to me.  Almost every he gets up in a high leverage situation where we need a hit to score runs in a tight game, he strikes out or hits into a GIDP and kills a potential rally.  I'm sure that can't always be true,  but that is the bias I have formed in my mind and it's hard to shake it.   I need Cowser to start producing in the clutch to erase this bias. 

It is a very correct impression, to date.  

With RISP: .635 OPS

Late & close: .539

High leverage: .490

With a runner on 3B and less than two out, Cowser has gotten the runner home only 30.8% of the time, compared to 51% league average.

Now, I think he has done a little better in these areas since the all star break, despite Friday’s debacle where he hit into a DP with one out and the bases loaded and then later struck out with runners on 1st and 3rd and no out.  But he needs to do a lot better.

Now, do ROY voters drill down on this kind of data when they vote?   I kind of doubt it.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is a very correct impression, to date.  

With RISP: .635 OPS

Late & close: .539

High leverage: .490

With a runner on 3B and less than two out, Cowser has gotten the runner home only 30.8% of the time, compared to 51% league average.

Now, I think he has done a little better in these areas since the all star break, despite Friday’s debacle where he hit into a DP with one out and the bases loaded and then later struck out with runners on 1st and 3rd and no out.  But he needs to do a lot better.

Now, do ROY voters drill down on this kind of data when they vote?   I kind of doubt it.  

 

I think this is something that he will improve on with experience.  Sort of goes along with the "year too early" idea.  We might have been "two years too early" last year.  

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think this is something that he will improve on with experience.  Sort of goes along with the "year too early" idea.  We might have been "two years too early" last year.  

I was correct that his numbers in these areas have gotten better the last two months, which goes to show how terrible they were before.  They’re still very bad.  

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Aglets said:

What do people think of him batting leadoff virtually every game now?

I have mixed feelings on it.  He is about middle of the pack on our team in terms of OBP.   Highest K rate on the team excluding some small sample sizes.

He’s not a lead off hitter for me. He’s more of a #6 guy.

I would put Holliday at lead off right now..bat Henderson second.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is a very correct impression, to date.  

With RISP: .635 OPS

Late & close: .539

High leverage: .490

With a runner on 3B and less than two out, Cowser has gotten the runner home only 30.8% of the time, compared to 51% league average.

Now, I think he has done a little better in these areas since the all star break, despite Friday’s debacle where he hit into a DP with one out and the bases loaded and then later struck out with runners on 1st and 3rd and no out.  But he needs to do a lot better.

Now, do ROY voters drill down on this kind of data when they vote?   I kind of doubt it.  

 

He was basically at 0 a month or so ago. It’s like his numbers vs off speed. He can still look bad and struggle but it’s improving…as is his lefty vs lefty numbers.

None of it is good overall but improvement is what you want to see and he’s providing that.

[Otter]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was correct that his numbers in these areas have gotten better the last two months, which goes to show how terrible they were before.  They’re still very bad.  

If I take the glass half full outlook, I suspect the bad clutch numbers are due to him being a rookie and just pressing too hard in these situations.  I'm hoping with a year under his belt, he'll be more relaxed and put up better clutch numbers next year.

[Frobby]

Count me as a guy who doesn’t care a lot about batting order.  Better hitters in the top 4 spots than the bottom 5 is all I really care about.  

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Otter said:

If I take the glass half full outlook, I suspect the bad clutch numbers are due to him being a rookie and just pressing too hard in these situations.  I'm hoping with a year under his belt, he'll be more relaxed and put up better clutch numbers next year.

I absolutely expect that.  

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yes.

 

The difference between 245 and 255 is 5 hits over the course of 500 at bats. I don’t think that makes or breaks a ROTY campaign. 

[Frobby]

On the ROY issue, it’s far from decided yet.  Many times it comes down to a rookie playing a major role down the stretch of the pennant race.   I’m pretty sure that neither Eddie nor Cal would have won ROY if the season had ended in mid-August.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

The difference between 245 and 255 is 5 hits over the course of 500 at bats. I don’t think that makes or breaks a ROTY campaign. 

I'm aware.  

But .245 doesn't look the same as .255 does.  .295 doesn't look the same as .305.  .396 doesn't look the same as .406.

 I'm an old school baseball fan in some respects and I can't help it that this is one of them.  Hitting under .250 kinda sucks.

[Fiver6565]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not a lead off hitter for me. He’s more of a #6 guy.

I would put Holliday at lead off right now..bat Henderson second.

I agree w/ this, though I'm fine w/ Gunnar batting third, that doesn't really matter to me.  I want the top 4 to be Holliday/Santander/Henderson/O'hearn or Mountcastle.  the order of Santa/Gunnar doesn't matter.  When Westburg is back and Kjerstad/Mayo get back up and running at the ML level, that top 4 + Rutsch/Cowser/Westburg/Kjerstad/Mayo is incredibly deep and solid.

[Fiver6565]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm aware.  

But .245 doesn't look the same as .255 does.  .295 doesn't look the same as .305.  .396 doesn't look the same as .406.

 I'm an old school baseball fan in some respects and I can't help it that this is one of them.  Hitting under .250 kinda sucks.

I have to fight the urge to look at a guy batting .230 as a crappy hitter all the time, LOL.  Meanwhile the OPS will be .750 or something and I realize the guy is probably above league average.

Below .200 though, that's a definite deal breaker for me.

[AlbNYfan]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not a lead off hitter for me. He’s more of a #6 guy.

I would put Holliday at lead off right now..bat Henderson second.

IMO, Holiday is not ready for the lead-off spot. You (I) want a guy that can take pitches. I don't think he is ready for that, maybe next year, keep him comfortable. I'd rather see AR back in that position to see if you can get him on track again.

[BRobinsonfan]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm aware.  

But .245 doesn't look the same as .255 does.  .295 doesn't look the same as .305.  .396 doesn't look the same as .406.

 I'm an old school baseball fan in some respects and I can't help it that this is one of them.  Hitting under .250 kinda sucks.

Well said.  I'm a big believer in advanced analytics and statistics, but I'm still a product of growing up in the 70's.  It's hard erase the pull of some of some of those outdated statistical benchmarks that I grew up with.