Fangraphs Analysis on Holliday Demotion

[ThisIsBirdland]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/occams-razor-and-jackson-hollidays-demotion/

I thought this was a very interesting analysis on the decision to keep Holliday down.

[NashLumber]

Easy to follow at first, but then I got lost in the weeds. Maybe someone else will have a clearer interpretation. Thanks for this, though. 

[Ridgway22]

17 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/occams-razor-and-jackson-hollidays-demotion/

I thought this was a very interesting analysis on the decision to keep Holliday down.

This quote in the article summed it up for me:

Quote

Whatever Baltimore is doing, it’s strange in my eyes.

I would be shocked if ME and SigBot3000(tm) have not thought this all the way through. In thee I trust.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

Easy to follow at first, but then I got lost in the weeds. Maybe someone else will have a clearer interpretation. Thanks for this, though. 

Yea, for a piece with Occam's Razor in the title it isn't the simplest explanation.

The gist I got from it was "I did a lot of math and couldn't figure out why they did it".

[NashLumber]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, for a piece with Occam's Razor in the title it isn't the simplest explanation.

The gist I got from it was "I did a lot of math and couldn't figure out why they did it".

The part where he thought that Elias is trying to thread the needle, ie. get him up here long enough to help the team win, yet not have the other service time issues (2nd in ROY nor 172 days) kick in, may be what's happening. 

[forphase1]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, for a piece with Occam's Razor in the title it isn't the simplest explanation.

The gist I got from it was "I did a lot of math and couldn't figure out why they did it".

Of course not.  Because by the numbers and by any reasonable logic, the only REAL reason why they did it was for service time issues, and nothing really to do with talent or ability.  Again, they of course are saying its to face more good LH pitching (which really isn't in the AAA level) or to work on his defense, but it's just GM speak.  Just as it was GM speak when Elias was blowing smoke up the OH collective rears when talking about how good his chances were to make the team.  I really like Elias and appreciate all he has done.  But he's made some blunders too and right now has us in a position where we have a wealth of riches, but seems unable or unwilling to do anything to clear the logjam.  Going to be an interesting couple next years.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, NashLumber said:

The part where he thought that Elias is trying to thread the needle, ie. get him up here long enough to help the team win, yet not have the other service time issues (2nd in ROY nor 172 days) kick in, may be what's happening. 

I could see a super confident exec trying that...if they hadn't been burned two years ago.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

2 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

Easy to follow at first, but then I got lost in the weeds. Maybe someone else will have a clearer interpretation. Thanks for this, though. 

Basically, the value lost by not having Holliday for 10%-25% of the season, plus the value gained if he's good enough to acquire the pick, don't outweigh the cost savings from having him gain the year of service time versus Super 2 status. Part of the analysis is that if he's not good enough to earn the top-2 ROY vote, then you can always send him down mid-season anyway because he's probably not instrumental in helping the team to the playoffs. Also, given the competition for ROY voting, Clemens' model shows taking Holliday from 600 PA to 450 PA only reduces his chances of placing top-2 in ROY voting from 43% to 36%. Not much of an impact to lose 25% of the season.

I think the one flaw with the analysis is that the year of control isn't just about the $ amount. The year itself is in many ways more important than how much you're paying for the year.

[NashLumber]

5 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Basically, the value lost by not having Holliday for 10%-25% of the season, plus the value gained if he's good enough to acquire the pick, don't outweigh the cost savings from having him gain the year of service time versus Super 2 status. Part of the analysis is that if he's not good enough to earn the top-2 ROY vote, then you can always send him down mid-season anyway because he's probably not instrumental in helping the team to the playoffs. Also, given the competition for ROY voting, Clemens' model shows taking Holliday from 600 PA to 450 PA only reduces his chances of placing top-2 in ROY voting from 43% to 36%. Not much of an impact to lose 25% of the season.

I think the one flaw with the analysis is that the year of control isn't just about the $ amount. The year itself is in many ways more important than how much you're paying for the year.

I got that far. I think it was just the second or third chart that melted my lobes. 

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I could see a super confident exec trying that...if they hadn't been burned two years ago.

If Elias believes in that as a strategy that can work, I don't think he'd move off it just because of what happened with Rutschman (which was at least partially caused by his injury, anyway). A process over results thing. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If Elias believes in that as a strategy that can work, I don't think he'd move off it just because of what happened with Rutschman (which was at least partially caused by his injury, anyway). A process over results thing. 

That's an opinion.

[Say O!]

2 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I think the one flaw with the analysis is that the year of control isn't just about the $ amount. The year itself is in many ways more important than how much you're paying for the year.

This

Edited April 4 by Say O!

[interloper]

Guy can't figure it out because the decision is not based around service time or ROTY. It's just about reps at 2B. It's really not complicated. The complications arise when folks assume Elias is lying. 

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's an opinion.

Whether or not Rutschman's injury delay was manipulation, my point is that Elias doesn't seem like the type to change approach just because the first roll of the dice didn't go his way. 

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

Guy can't figure it out because the decision is not based around service time or ROTY. It's just about reps at 2B. It's really not complicated. The complications arise when folks assume Elias is lying. 

Mateo had 45 games in center field, 38 of them starts, over his 12 seasons of professional baseball before the O's put him out there.

 

Edited April 4 by Can_of_corn