Jud Fabian, 2024

[interloper]

Yeah I like Fabian as a McKenna-like, with maybe more upside. I'd be fine with that result. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hate to say this but unless Fabian makes significant changes I think he tops out as a AAAA up and down guy similar to McKenna.   He is a mistake hitter to the extreme.  Give him a fastball middle in to middle away or a hanger and he can take it out.  The power is real and he doesn’t over swing to get to it.   That’s the good news. But the 23 walks to 70 strikeouts, the 7 doubles in 60 games, and the sub .250 average all point to a guy who’s just not a very good hitter.  

If any team wants him back as part of a trade package I wouldn’t hesitate to include him.

I'm not sure I'm quite as down on him as you appear to be, but I agree, he still has some holes in his offensive that need to be sure up. He would be a good fit as a 4th outfielder if he's able to hit well enough at the major league level. 

[zweem]

Think he is, at least, a Siri level player.

[Frobby]

It so happens that right now Jud Fabian has one fewer PA at AA this year than he had last year.   Here’s a comparison.

2023: 288 PA, 238 AB, 36 R, 42 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 44 BB, 108 K’s, .177/.314/.399, 37.5% K rate, 15.3% BB rate.

2024: 287 PA, 248 AB, 39 R, 56 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 38 RBi, 8 SB, 3 CS, 27 BB, 82 K’s, .226/.309/.423, 28.6% K rate, 9.4% BB rate.  

Obviously the K rate is way down and consequently the BA is way up, but OBP actually has declined slightly due to a much lower BB rate.  This makes me wonder if Fabian has actually reduced his percentage of swinging strikes, or if he’s just swinging more often.

Per Fangraphs, at Bowie Fabian has increased his line drive rate from 13.9% to 18.9%, while his fly ball rate has dropped from 54.6% to 49.1%.  More strikingly, his pull percentage has dropped from 59.5% to 45.1% while his opposite field rate has increased from 15.3.% to 27.2%.   

All of that suggests some pretty radical changes to Fabian’s swing and approach, but a pretty modest change in bottom line results (98 wRC+ to 105 wRC+).   Fabian is in a 10-game slump (.103/.217/.205), so his “modest” improvement would have looked a lot better if I’d done this comparison before his recent slide.   Hopefully he will get back on track shortly.   

 

[Warehouse]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

It so happens that right now Jud Fabian has one fewer PA at AA this year than he had last year.   Here’s a comparison.

2023: 288 PA, 238 AB, 36 R, 42 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 44 BB, 108 K’s, .177/.314/.399, 37.5% K rate, 15.3% BB rate.

2024: 287 PA, 248 AB, 39 R, 56 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 38 RBi, 8 SB, 3 CS, 27 BB, 82 K’s, .226/.309/.423, 28.6% K rate, 9.4% BB rate.  

Obviously the K rate is way down and consequently the BA is way up, but OBP actually has declined slightly due to a much lower BB rate.  This makes me wonder if Fabian has actually reduced his percentage of swinging strikes, or if he’s just swinging more often.

Per Fangraphs, at Bowie Fabian has increased his line drive rate from 13.9% to 18.9%, while his fly ball rate has dropped from 54.6% to 49.1%.  More strikingly, his pull percentage has dropped from 59.5% to 45.1% while his opposite field rate has increased from 15.3.% to 27.2%.   

All of that suggests some pretty radical changes to Fabian’s swing and approach, but a pretty modest change in bottom line results (98 wRC+ to 105 wRC+).   Fabian is in a 10-game slump (.103/.217/.205), so his “modest” improvement would have looked a lot better if I’d done this comparison before his recent slide.   Hopefully he will get back on track shortly.   

 

His SwStr% dropped from 16.7% last year to 15.6% this year. 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

His SwStr% dropped from 16.7% last year to 15.6% this year. 

Thanks.  Where do you get that?

[Warehouse]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.  Where do you get that?

Fangraphs MILB leaderboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=2&lg=&stats=bat&qual=40&type=2&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=2&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=18,1&filter=
 

Just note that SwStr% for the DSL and FCL tends not to be accurate.  In game tracking, it will often show a batter striking out on 3 swinging strikes regardless of how many pitches there were in the AB. This carries over the SwStr%. As a result, you’ll often see extremely high SwStr% for these leagues and sometimes extremely low rates.

Edited Saturday at 14:56 by Warehouse