Anthony Santander 2024

[Sports Guy]

I just hope that if/when he hits 40 homers that the Os don’t get so enamored with that number that they pay him big money for it.

[25 Nuggets]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I just hope that if/when he hits 40 homers that the Os don’t get so enamored with that number that they pay him big money for it.

What would you call big money in this case?

Bleacher Report - take that with a grain of salt - predicts 4 yr, $60 million.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

What would you call big money in this case?

Bleacher Report - take that with a grain of salt - predicts 4 yr, $60 million.

BR is full of poop.

I wouldn’t sign him to any contract, so yes I think that’s big money.

But he’s going to get more than that if he gets 40+ homers. (Or at least his AAV is going to be higher)

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

When and why did you come around on him?

Because he’s hitting consistently and with power, and his defense isn’t terrible.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I just hope that if/when he hits 40 homers that the Os don’t get so enamored with that number that they pay him big money for it.

Does 40 HRs justify a QO in your opinion?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, HowAboutThat said:

Because he’s hitting consistently and with power, and his defense isn’t terrible.

When did you come to this realization though?

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Does 40 HRs justify a QO in your opinion?

I think so because at that point, I don’t think he accepts the QO.  But it also depends on how he ends the season.

I actually think the Trump comp is an interesting one.  Even if you think Santander is a better overall player and leader (I do), there are a lot of similarities.

In their break out HR years, they were about the same age. (AS a little less than a year younger).

Trumbo had a career slash line of 249/302/459.  AS is currently at 246/307/468.

In Trumbo’s 47 homer season, he had an 850 OPS..Santander is currently at 831.

Neither is known for speed or defense although Santander gets the edge in both imo.  Through his 47 homer season, Trumbo was worth 8.7 fWAR. Santander has been worth 8.4 fWAR so far. At this point, Trumbo is about 600 PA ahead of Santander.

After his 47 homer season, the Os gave Trumbo a 3/37 deal.  He hit a total of 40 homers and had an fWAR of -1.5 for those 3 years.

Im not sitting here and saying I expect Santander to be a negative player going forward but I do think it’s possible and a player with his profile shouldn’t be counted on to be some slam dunk of a signing.

If we had a positional player issue, I would be more likely to be interested in this but not only is that not an issue for us, we actually need to find more at bats for these younger players.

So, unless some of them are traded, I just don’t see the point with him.

Edited July 22 by Sports Guy

[e16bball]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I actually think the Trump comp is an interesting one.  Even if you think Santander is a better overall player and leader (I do), there are a lot of similarities.

So much swing and miss with Trumbo. Consistently one of the worse whiff/strikeout guys in recent memory. 

I think that’s one of the big flashing warning signs of guys who will age badly — if you have trouble making contact at a young age, that’s only going to get worse as you get older. Especially these big bat speed guys who are mostly only playable when they’re young because the high K rate is outweighed by the huge damage done when they do connect. As that bat speed starts to diminish, so does the damage and so does the playability. 

That’s the key difference between Trumbo and Santander for me. For a guy with a lot of power, Santander actually has pretty good bat-to-ball skills. He doesn’t always make great contact — if he didn’t play on the same team as Cedric Mullins, his pop-up issues would probably be even more glaring — but he’s pretty good at putting the bat on the ball. 

Long way of saying that I think he probably ages better than Trumbo and those other similar high power/high K hitters in recent memory who tend to collapse around age 30.

[HowAboutThat]

I was down on Santander because of his defense, and because I expected it to get worse with age, as he slows down and his range decreases.

Trumbo was the worst defender it has ever been my burden to watch. In 2017, Trumbo in RF was minus 8 OAA. Santander has been -1, slightly below average, but not terrible. And he is sure compensating with his bat.
Santander is already slow, with limited range, and will get slower, but he’ll NEVER be Mark Trumbo. Nelson Cruz was unplayable in the OF, and still had 470 home runs., and HE was never as bad as Trumbo( he would have been, but Seattle and Minnesota were smarter, and kept him away from gloves.)

I expect Santander will get money but will play more and more DH throughout his contract. I don’t want him to stay, because we have worthwhile replacements, but I expect he will get a QO, turn it down, and we shall get a pick, which is good, because that extra pick for ROY has sailed over to Texas.

[e16bball]

26 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

which is good, because that extra pick for ROY has sailed over to Texas.

For Josh Smith?

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

For Josh Smith?

No, Wyatt Langford is back and playing well.

[Allan Bryant]

8 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

No, Wyatt Langford is back and playing well.

How far behind is Cowser to Langford  ?  Is there enough time for Cowser to catch up and pass him ?

[HowAboutThat]

7 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

How far behind is Cowser to Langford  ?  Is there enough time for Cowser to catch up and pass him ?

I have no idea. Cowser has been cold for a while, and Langford was injured but has come back strong.

 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

How far behind is Cowser to Langford  ?  Is there enough time for Cowser to catch up and pass him ?

If I understand the odds correctly the markets seem to think Langford is a strong favorite with >50% chance of getting ROY. Cowser is running third with around 10-20% chance. He needs to pick it up quick. 

[e16bball]

27 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

No, Wyatt Langford is back and playing well.

I’m not so sure about that. He’s 2 for his last 30 (.221 OPS), and he checks in for the year at a 92 wRC+. Which is pretty weak compared to Cowser’s 111 wRC+. He doesn’t hold a candle to Cowser defensively, either, so I actually think Cowser is well ahead of him — by pretty much any meaningful statistical measure.

Cowser: 111 wRC+, 114 OPS+, 2.4 fWAR, 1.3 rWAR

Langford: 92 wRC+, 98 OPS+, 0.7 fWAR, 1.1 rWAR

I will agree with you, though, that if it’s at all close, Langford (and Mason Miller) will get it over Cowser. They’ve had far more national profile than Cowser has, so they’ll surely get the nod if it’s a judgment call.

Edited July 22 by e16bball