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Anthony Santander 2024

DirtyBird

By DirtyBird
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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Anthony Santander through age 29- .246/.307/.469

Mark Trumbo through age 29- .250/.300/.458

 

Santander is already worth more rWAR than Trumbo’s entire career. And Trumbo had a good career. Two time Allstar, led the league in home runs one year. Not bad. 

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justD
justD

Please, for the sake of all that’s holy, please. Stop calling him Santa. 

Frobby
Frobby

The Orioles are on pace to score 880 runs, which is 73 more than last year.   Individual players are going to have ups and downs during the year.  

RZNJ
RZNJ

Bump.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because contracts extending into the 30's of players with similar profiles tend toward suboptimal results.

Agree. Santander has been a really good Oriole and was a great find by the Orioles. But in two years when he’s hitting half as many homers and his foot speed drops some more he will be a poor investment. And will be frustrating some fan base. 

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Santander is already worth more rWAR than Trumbo’s entire career. And Trumbo had a good career. Two time Allstar, led the league in home runs one year. Not bad. 

Trumbo was also out of baseball by age 32 or 33, like many other completely one dimensional sluggers before and after him.

Santander is just such a completely one dimensional slugger.

 

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Agree. Santander has been a really good Oriole and was a great find by the Orioles. But in two years when he’s hitting half as many homers and his foot speed drops some more he will be a poor investment. And will be frustrating some fan base. 

Possible.. or he could become Nelson Cruz .. 

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Trumbo was also out of baseball by age 32 or 33, like many other completely one dimensional sluggers before and after him.

Santander is just such a completely one dimensional slugger.

 

I don’t want to sign Santander to a long term contract, so we see eye to eye in that regard. But Santander is a better fielder than Trumbo at the same age and runs the bases better. And it shows in their relative value. I’m just pointing out that Santander has been a more valuable player, although he’s still too one dimensional to sign long term IMO. 

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Possible.. or he could become Nelson Cruz .. 

I was very unhappy the Orioles did not resign Cruz. But I don’t feel that way about Cruz. Regardless of our feelings, the odds are strongly against Santander having Cruz’s success during his thirties. 

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Possible.. or he could become Nelson Cruz .. 

I'd rather he not brazenly cheat like Cruz did lol.

Also, Cruz hit for average and got on base (.277 career AVG, .343 career OBP), which are definitely not tools in Santander's toolbox (.246 career AVG, .307 career OBP).

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Trumbo was also out of baseball by age 32 or 33, like many other completely one dimensional sluggers before and after him.

Santander is just such a completely one dimensional slugger.

 

Santander to Trumbo isn't as good a comparison as you think.

Their raw stats are fairly similar but Trumbo played in a much more offensive era. 

Santander is a much better athlete, defender and consistent player than Trumbo was.

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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4 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I don’t want to sign Santander to a long term contract, so we see eye to eye in that regard. But Santander is a better fielder than Trumbo at the same age and runs the bases better. And it shows in their relative value. I’m just pointing out that Santander has been a more valuable player, although he’s still too one dimensional to sign long term IMO. 

Trumbo was a DH impersonating a fielder, Santander is just a very poor fielder.

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Santander to Trumbo isn't as good a comparison as you think.

Their raw stats are fairly similar but Trumbo played in a much more offensive era. 

Santander is a much better athlete, defender and consistent player than Trumbo was.

It's not a perfect comp (is there really even such a thing?) but he is an absolutely relevant comp for this team in this situation. He is the poster child for why taking the draft pick and moving on is the right choice.

And Santander is still a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier.

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e16bball Major Leaguer

e16bball

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55 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Anthony Santander through age 29- .246/.307/.469

Mark Trumbo through age 29- .250/.300/.458

 

Anthony Santander (age 27-29):

.245 / .317 / .477 / .794    124 OPS+   9.0 rWAR

Mark Trumbo (age 27-29):

.244 / .299 / .443 / .742   105 OPS+  2.6 rWAR

Is it really very meaningful that Trumbo was the better player when they were significantly younger?

29-year-old Santander is a better player by miles than Trumbo at the same age, and he has been for years. I think that’s what matters most to how you’d project them over the next few years.

Edited by e16bball
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Sydnor Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Sydnor

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7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Trumbo was a DH impersonating a fielder, Santander is just a very poor fielder.

It's not a perfect comp (is there really even such a thing?) but he is an absolutely relevant comp for this team in this situation. He is the poster child for why taking the draft pick and moving on is the right choice.

And Santander is still a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier.

Santander is -2 OAA this year. He’s averagish to below average. There but there are much worse defensive right fielders such as Adolis Garcia and Castellanos -9, Lane Thomas and Renfroe -8, and Soto -4. Acuna and Tatis are also -2 OAA. 

In 2016, Mark Trumbo was -15 OAA. They’re not even in the same universe.

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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8 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I love Tony and I honestly think we are gonna miss his veteran leadership as much as anything. I’m very happy we have him for this year. But I do think he’d be a bad long term investment. 

Santander does exactly ONE thing very well:

Hit HRs

He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't get on base, he's a very slow runner, and he is a very poor defender. If he stops hitting HRs so often, his value completely evaporates and his contract basically becomes dead money, and the Orioles cannot afford to eat large amounts of dead money like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees of the world.

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Anthony Santander (age 27-29):

.245 / .317 / .477 / .794    124 OPS+   9.0 WAR

Mark Trumbo (age 27-29):

.244 / .299 / .443 / .742   105 OPS+  2.6 WAR

Is it really very meaningful that Trumbo was the better player when they were significantly younger?

29-year-old Santander is a better player by miles than Trumbo at the same age, and he has been for years. I think that’s what matters most to how you’d project them over the next few years.

I am simply using Trumbo, whose basic tool kit is very similar to Santander's, as a fairly recent, Orioles-related cautionary tale.

Trumbo had his big walk year with the Orioles at age 30 and instead of doing the smart, obvious thing and taking the free draft pick, we gave him a big money extension that everyone except the FO knew was probably going to end poorly.

2 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Santander is -2 OAA this year. He’s averagish to below average. There but there are much worse defensive right fielders such as Adolis Garcia and Castellanos -9, Lane Thomas and Renfroe -8, and Soto -4. Acuna and Tatis are also -2 OAA. 

In 2016, Mark Trumbo was -15 OAA. They’re not even in the same universe.

Baseball Savant has Santander in the 22nd percentile in terms of overall fielding value.

However you want to slice it, he isn't going to make up any lost value from declining offense with his defense. If his ability to slug goes south, the whole contract goes with it, because he has no other tools to make up for that with.

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forphase1 Hangout Veteran Council

forphase1

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1 hour ago, Baseball fandom said:

Why shouldn't they not sign him? Still one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. Orioles fans. Geez . 

It's not the money, it's the years.  I wouldn't mind signing him for a year or two, even at what I'd consider to be stupid money.  But what I DON'T agree with is signing him for any more than 2-3 years as I don't think he's going to age well.  And I expect him to get more than 3 years from someone, so I'm a hard pass.  Can we afford him?  Money wise, sure.  But I don't want to see us stuck with him 4-5 years down the road when his skillset has greatly diminished, but he's still playing every day because we owe him a lot of money and a lot of loyalty.  Let some other club take that risk, get the QO pick and move on.  

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  • Posts

    • Baseball fandom
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      I've made it clear that if they don't sign Santa and Burnes I'm ok with it as long as the money is allocated to other players they feel that fits their profile better .You know you have people on here like SG who only hears what he wants to hear. I need to learn to ignore that guy. 
    • Baseball fandom
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Oh mr know it all. Who most times is wrong. Lol
    • DrinkinWithFermi
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted

      I also think Santander will age better than Trumbo, despite my repeated comparisons of the two players. But I don't know that he will age better than Trumbo and all of the other one dimensional sluggers who were enjoying the retired millionaire sports star lifestyle by their mid-30s, and I don't want the Orioles to be on the hook when the world finds out in 2 or 3 years. Re-signing Santander to a 4 year, $80 million dollar deal is something the DD/PA regime would have done. Hopefully the ME/DR regime is smarter than that (and I think they are). 22nd percentile is really bad, man. And it's unlikely to improve in his 30s.
    • Moose Milligan
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By Moose Milligan · Posted

      Looks like Baseball Fandom was at the game today!
    • Sydnor
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By Sydnor · Posted

      But that is not what you said. You said he’s a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier. Thus, you were stating he is close to as bad a fielder as Trumbo was, which is not correct. Generally speaking, no player makes up the loss of offensive value with defensive value as the age. It is usually one of the first things to go. I was not making any sort of argument that he was going to make up declining offense with defense, just pointing out that you made a preposterous statement.
    • Hallas
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By Hallas · Posted

      At least relative to the rest of the league Santander has an interesting profile because he is comfortably above-average at making contact; his whiff rates are much better than Trumbo's so he's not really as much of a TTO player as you would think.  This gives him hope that he will age a little bit better than someone like Trumbo.  Though he's still got a good shot of being out of the league in 3 years.
    • forphase1
      Anthony Santander 2024

      By forphase1 · Posted

      It's not the money, it's the years.  I wouldn't mind signing him for a year or two, even at what I'd consider to be stupid money.  But what I DON'T agree with is signing him for any more than 2-3 years as I don't think he's going to age well.  And I expect him to get more than 3 years from someone, so I'm a hard pass.  Can we afford him?  Money wise, sure.  But I don't want to see us stuck with him 4-5 years down the road when his skillset has greatly diminished, but he's still playing every day because we owe him a lot of money and a lot of loyalty.  Let some other club take that risk, get the QO pick and move on.  

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