Basallo for Miller y/n?

[Hallas]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me it isn't so much how much value he has to the A's as a player but what other packages they could get from another team.

I agree that he's better utilized as a means to gather additional assets.

Are the A's going to do better than the MLB.com #29 prospect?  The list of teams in playoff contention and with a higher ranked prospect in their system is not very long.  The A's could value a quantity deal, but the O's could probably make something work there too from our depth pieces, especially if that means we keep Kjerstad.

Edited May 1 by Hallas

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Then we'll have the best catching Tandem in baseball and a replacement for Adley when he walks in a couple years.

When is the last time “the best catching tandem in baseball” mattered? 

If Adley continues to play this well, makes multiple All-star teams, and wins another silver slugger or 2, and helps us to a World Series championship, how well do you think it will go over with the fans if he is allowed to walk? Have you seen how many #35 shirts are out here in the stands?

[Gurgi]

Most recent idea from them is follows

 

Realistically the A's probably consider him untouchable. MLB trades aren't exactly put together like fantasy trades. The A's have no incentive to move him. Maybe Basallo, Kjerstad and another piece could make them think , but MLB pitching the likes of Miller is more valuable than anything else. He really might be untouchable.

I guess if they have an idea Miller might be the next Clemens he might be untouchable.  Is Miller really this well thought of nationally?

[Gurgi]

Probably should of looked his minor league stats before.  He hardly has pitched and still has a questionable UCL.  He already is 25.  He was home schooled and pitched five years in college.  Not your typical career path.  

I think after finally doing my homework I have to be  hard pass on Miller.   

[Hallas]

17 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Most recent idea from them is follows

 

Realistically the A's probably consider him untouchable. MLB trades aren't exactly put together like fantasy trades. The A's have no incentive to move him. Maybe Basallo, Kjerstad and another piece could make them think , but MLB pitching the likes of Miller is more valuable than anything else. He really might be untouchable.

I guess if they have an idea Miller might be the next Clemens he might be untouchable.  Is Miller really this well thought of nationally?

 

If they're holding out for #16 and #29 overall for a guy with a UCL injury and rotator cuff injury in his history someone needs to check their FO to see if they all got forced lobotomies.

Edited May 1 by Hallas

[Hallas]

4 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Probably should of looked his minor league stats before.  He hardly has pitched and still has a questionable UCL.  He already is 25.  He was home schooled and pitched five years in college.  Not your typical career path.  

I think after finally doing my homework I have to be  hard pass on Miller.   

I am totally ok with trading for him, and paying a premium prospect like Kjerstad for him, and hoping his arm holds up for the rest of the season.  But I think it puts the value of his future seasons in doubt.  He almost certainly will not stay healthy for all 5 of his remaining pre-FA seasons.

Edited May 1 by Hallas

[Philip]

This was an interesting and in-depth reply from MLBTraderumors.

 

Q: Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg are amazing, and totally wasted on the A’s right now, despite them playing better than expected. But any trade would best be for solid prospects-SEVERAL solid prospects- who are 2-3 seasons away instead of MLB-ready guys who would also be wasted on the current and near-future teams. Given that, what team has those far away prospects to pay for one of those splendid slingers?

A: This brings up a philosophical question: should bad teams have nice things?  Mason Miller provides a reason to watch the A’s, and his season has been insane so far.  And while he’s under team control through the 2029 season, we can’t count on him to hold up or on this franchise to be willing to pay him those last few years if he does.

So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A’s to trade Miller as soon as possible, as he might be at peak value and could be a lot less valuable the next time this organization has a realistic shot at contending.  (I am aware that the A’s are not awful so far this year at 15-17, but I do not think they have a realistic chance at making the playoffs anytime soon).

It’s worth considering that Miller was a starter in college and all through the minors.  He came down with a “mild UCL sprain” in mid-May of last year, which involved a four-month recovery period and short appearances when he returned in September.

A’s GM David Forst explained to MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos last Decemberthat he’d like to see Miller stay healthy for a year as a reliever before the team considers moving him back into a starting role.  When a pitcher excels as a closer to the degree Miller has thus far, it’s often hard to get him out of that role, but if he can eventually transition back to starting, he could theoretically be even more valuable.  But given last year’s UCL sprain and the attrition rate of the game’s hardest throwers, there’s a pretty good case that Miller is indeed at peak value right now.

I don’t know where the hell the A’s are going to be (as an organization) in 2026, when Miller will receive his first arbitration salary. Given the extra uncertainty around the franchise these next few years, Phillip’s case makes some sense: trade Miller (and/or Erceg) now for prospects who are several years away from the Majors.

The problem with this idea is that a prospect’s uncertainty is higher the further away he is from the Majors.  Trading Miller this summer might require threading the following needles:

The other team is very much in win-now mode

The headline prospects you get back should be position players, since this is about mitigating risk

The headline prospects you get back should perhaps be in Double-A: close enough to the Majors to have some certainty, but far enough away where you could wait at least a year to promote them

So, top-ranked Double-A position player prospects on win-now somewhat likely (40% or better chance) playoff teams:

Samuel Basallo, Orioles catcher

Chase DeLauter, Guardians outfielder

Cole Young, Mariners infielder

Harry Ford, Mariners catcher

Emmanuel Rodriguez, Twins outfielder

Matt Shaw, Cubs infielder

Kevin Alcántara, Cubs outfielder

James Triantos, Cubs second baseman

Dalton Rushing, Dodgers catcher/DH

Spencer Jones, Yankees outfielder

Jacob Melton, Astros outfielder

A lot of these teams are able to assemble good bullpens without giving up top prospects, and therefore might not be in the Miller bidding.  The Cubs, though, are a good example of a team with the type of prospect that it could make sense to flip for Miller.  It all might be too cute, though – maybe just enjoy Miller where he is now.  It’s also worth keeping in mind that the A’s have not exactly hit home runs in trying to convert established good players like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, and Sean Manaea into prospects.

 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

This was an interesting and in-depth reply from MLBTraderumors.

 

Q: Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg are amazing, and totally wasted on the A’s right now, despite them playing better than expected. But any trade would best be for solid prospects-SEVERAL solid prospects- who are 2-3 seasons away instead of MLB-ready guys who would also be wasted on the current and near-future teams. Given that, what team has those far away prospects to pay for one of those splendid slingers?

A: This brings up a philosophical question: should bad teams have nice things?  Mason Miller provides a reason to watch the A’s, and his season has been insane so far.  And while he’s under team control through the 2029 season, we can’t count on him to hold up or on this franchise to be willing to pay him those last few years if he does.

So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A’s to trade Miller as soon as possible, as he might be at peak value and could be a lot less valuable the next time this organization has a realistic shot at contending.  (I am aware that the A’s are not awful so far this year at 15-17, but I do not think they have a realistic chance at making the playoffs anytime soon).

It’s worth considering that Miller was a starter in college and all through the minors.  He came down with a “mild UCL sprain” in mid-May of last year, which involved a four-month recovery period and short appearances when he returned in September.

A’s GM David Forst explained to MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos last Decemberthat he’d like to see Miller stay healthy for a year as a reliever before the team considers moving him back into a starting role.  When a pitcher excels as a closer to the degree Miller has thus far, it’s often hard to get him out of that role, but if he can eventually transition back to starting, he could theoretically be even more valuable.  But given last year’s UCL sprain and the attrition rate of the game’s hardest throwers, there’s a pretty good case that Miller is indeed at peak value right now.

I don’t know where the hell the A’s are going to be (as an organization) in 2026, when Miller will receive his first arbitration salary. Given the extra uncertainty around the franchise these next few years, Phillip’s case makes some sense: trade Miller (and/or Erceg) now for prospects who are several years away from the Majors.

The problem with this idea is that a prospect’s uncertainty is higher the further away he is from the Majors.  Trading Miller this summer might require threading the following needles:

The other team is very much in win-now mode

The headline prospects you get back should be position players, since this is about mitigating risk

The headline prospects you get back should perhaps be in Double-A: close enough to the Majors to have some certainty, but far enough away where you could wait at least a year to promote them

So, top-ranked Double-A position player prospects on win-now somewhat likely (40% or better chance) playoff teams:

Samuel Basallo, Orioles catcher

Chase DeLauter, Guardians outfielder

Cole Young, Mariners infielder

Harry Ford, Mariners catcher

Emmanuel Rodriguez, Twins outfielder

Matt Shaw, Cubs infielder

Kevin Alcántara, Cubs outfielder

James Triantos, Cubs second baseman

Dalton Rushing, Dodgers catcher/DH

Spencer Jones, Yankees outfielder

Jacob Melton, Astros outfielder

A lot of these teams are able to assemble good bullpens without giving up top prospects, and therefore might not be in the Miller bidding.  The Cubs, though, are a good example of a team with the type of prospect that it could make sense to flip for Miller.  It all might be too cute, though – maybe just enjoy Miller where he is now.  It’s also worth keeping in mind that the A’s have not exactly hit home runs in trying to convert established good players like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, and Sean Manaea into prospects.

 

Thanks for sharing this!

The OP was on to something with the notion of Basallo. That is the kind of guy that the A’s will covet. 

I’m not sure the O’s will be willing to give him up. But I hope that there is place to add a high end back end of the bullpen guy because I feel uncomfortable with a team this good relying on Kimbrel with our season (possibly the championship) on the line.

[EddeeEddee]

Too much potential upside for Basallo and too much potential for injury for Miller.  I'd trade other players for Miller but not Basallo.

[OriolesMagic83]

I would trade Kjerstad for Miller.  It would make the O's bullpen truly elite when Bautista comes back.  Kjerstad seems quite limited defensively and that's not something that Elias really likes--see how much Kjerstad has played with the O's.  Maybe his defense will improve, but right now, he's a backup DH/RF. 

[Orioles Jim]

On 5/1/2024 at 2:43 PM, Philip said:

Who says I can legally drink yet?

Because when I was underage and getting (rightfully) roasted for my trade ideas I wasn’t anywhere near as good of a sport about it as you’re being, that’s for damn sure. 

More power to ya, if you’d make a Basallo for Miller trade. Never in a million years for me. And I was someone in 2012 (or 2014, I forget which) saying we should trade Bundy to get Koji back.

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would trade Kjerstad for Miller.  It would make the O's bullpen truly elite when Bautista comes back.  Kjerstad seems quite limited defensively and that's not something that Elias really likes--see how much Kjerstad has played with the O's.  Maybe his defense will improve, but right now, he's a backup DH/RF. 

Kjerstad is already 25 (in his prime) this kind of player has very little appeal to the A’s. According to the article (and it makes sense to me) they are looking for players who will be ready in a couple of years when they are ready to win. Not now. Kjerstad is likely to be toward the back end of his prime when the A’s are even ready to start competing.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

Because when I was underage and getting (rightfully) roasted for my trade ideas I wasn’t anywhere near as good of a sport about it as you’re being, that’s for damn sure. 

More power to ya, if you’d make a Basallo for Miller trade. Never in a million years for me. And I was someone in 2012 (or 2014, I forget which) saying we should trade Bundy to get Koji back.

In 2012- 2016 we had so few prospects and we never had anything close to a team as young and as talented as this one. The only thing those teams had that is better than this one is a better bullpen. EVERYTHING else about this team is superior.

[Bemorewins]

29 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Too much potential upside for Basallo and too much potential for injury for Miller.  I'd trade other players for Miller but not Basallo.

That trade may not be there to be made. Who knows?

Let me ask you, would you rather trade Mayo or Basallo if you had to choose one?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

30 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Too much potential upside for Basallo and too much potential for injury for Miller.  I'd trade other players for Miller but not Basallo.

Basallo could end up being the best hitter at catcher since Mauer or Piazza there's no way I'm trading him for a reliever with a history of arm trouble.