On MLB just now the host were asking what should Baltimore give up to get Miller from the A's

[DrungoHazewood]

I have a question. Why would the A's trade Miller? Why would the A's trade Miller for another player who has five years of control left, when they could just keep the high-performing young guy they have locked up through 2028? If you're a team that is looking to build for the future don't you build around players like Miller?

And if you're waiting for some point in the future where you're the Las Vegas A's, I'm still not sure you're making any moves because there are no very young players who're likely to be both more valuable than Miller and need 3-4 years in the minors.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I have a question. Why would the A's trade Miller? Why would the A's trade Miller for another player who has five years of control left, when they could just keep the high-performing young guy they have locked up through 2028? If you're a team that is looking to build for the future don't you build around players like Miller?

And if you're waiting for some point in the future where you're the Las Vegas A's, I'm still not sure you're making any moves because there are no very young players who're likely to be both more valuable than Miller and need 3-4 years in the minors.

I’m not sure that they would want to. Most likely they are looking for guys who are 1 to 2 years away because their objective is still to lose now. They don’t have a team who is talented enough to contend and their elite backend of their bullpen is inflating their record and keeping them too close to .500.

That is why I don’t think that they would be interested in a Kjerstad. But if they would do that swap, if I’m the O’s I’m all over that one.

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What if I told you that he's going to be an elite high-level reliever for three of the next five years, but also out with a torn UCL for 18 months, and sort of hurt/rehabbing/not very effective for the other six months?

To me that's the mostly likely case, although the exact time periods could change.

Yep..which is why I’m very hesitant to trade HK for him. 
 

Hell, it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t even make it through this season.

If I  were the Os, I would be offering something like Norby, Stowers and solid lower level lottery ticket like Mordan.  That’s a solid return for a reliever, regardless of how talented he is.

2 everyday guys with solid upside and a potential long term answer at C.

[Explosivo]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If that’s your opinion, cool.

But what I see is Felix Bautista like electric stuff. You can’t just go anywhere and fine 103 with good command. Did you see him blow away Soto and Henderson in the same week? He has the kind of stuff that unless he makes a mistake and the ball finds the bat path, you don’t hit him (regardless of the batter). 

Question - Can you name all the other relievers who can do what he does? (103 with good command)

Many ways up the mountain and there are plenty of other relievers who put up similar numbers and would command far less. If you look at production, Danny Coulumbe is having a similar year for us. Finnegan is alright, Yates is good, Clase, Robertson, there are a few guys that deliver similar results without the flash of 103 and there are also diamonds in the rough like Danny or like Suarez that can give you the same level but without the flash. I trust our scouts to find those guys as they have time and time again.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Explosivo said:

Many ways up the mountain and there are plenty of other relievers who put up similar numbers and would command far less. If you look at production, Danny Coulumbe is having a similar year for us. Finnegan is alright, Yates is good, Clase, Robertson, there are a few guys that deliver similar results without the flash of 103 and there are also diamonds in the rough like Danny or like Suarez that can give you the same level but without the flash. I trust our scouts to find those guys as they have time and time again.

So you name 4 guys and say that is “plenty”? Of the guys that you mentioned, Clase is the ONLY one on par with Miller.

If you are looking at Finnegan or even Robertson and saying they have been good/effective, then I agree. But if you are saying that they are as good/talented as Miller, then you might want to check again. Mason Miller has struck out 33 batters in 16.1 innings with a .67 WHIP. By any measurement those numbers are elite.

Here are the facts there are not “plenty” of guys that can throw 103 with very good command. As a matter of fact, there are very FEW.

[Explosivo]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

So you name 4 guys and say that is “plenty”? Of the guys that you mentioned, Clase is the ONLY one on par with Miller.

If you are looking at Finnegan or even Robertson and saying they have been good/effective, then I agree. But if you are saying that they are as good/talented as Miller, then you might want to check again. Mason Miller has struck out 33 batters in 16.1 innings with a .67 WHIP. By any measurement those numbers are elite.

Here are the facts there are not “plenty” of guys that can throw 103 with very good command. As a matter of fact, there are very FEW.

It’s like you didn’t read my comment at all. 

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..which is why I’m very hesitant to trade HK for him. 
 

Hell, it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t even make it through this season.

If I  were the Os, I would be offering something like Norby, Stowers and solid lower level lottery ticket like Mordan.  That’s a solid return for a reliever, regardless of how talented he is.

2 everyday guys with solid upside and a potential long term answer at C.

That’s a joke of an offer for Miller.   Potential long term answer at catcher?   Mordan is a 20 yo DH, who catches, and has a sub .700 OPS in low A.  Stowers is a 26 yo AAAA outfielder hitting .250 in AAA.   Norby is a decent hitting prospect without a true position.

That’s an embarrassing offer.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

It’s like you didn’t read my comment at all. 

I’m not going to lie to you. When you started using words like “flash” to describe the incredible talent of a young pitcher like Miller that was confusing to me. And then when you compared Coloumbe and Suarez to Miller, describing them as “the same level without the flash”, I was even more confused.

Do you think Felix Bautista is “flash” or do you think that he is MUCH better than Cano, Coloumbe, Suarez, and every other member of our pen?

Stuff/ability matters to a great degree when succeeding against upper echelon opponents when the stakes are at the greatest.

Yes it’s possible to find another diamond in the rough somewhere. But is that what you would like to rest our postseason hopes?

[Just Regular]

42 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think this is unlikely. How often do you see successful closers transition back to the rotation? How often does that succeed? You often see starters move to the pen, but the other way? Very unusual. 

I'm trying to think of an example in the last 30-40 years... there were some in the 80s-90s. Like David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe. Smoltz moved to the pen and back after an injury. But very infrequent in the last 20-30 years. Jeff Samardzija, I guess. 

I have my doubts that someone who throws 103 is going to be more valuable/healthy going five innings every five days, and probably having to throw a wider variety of pitches and maybe try to not throw as hard.

The Braves with Reynaldo Lopez and the Giants with Jordan Hicks are a couple tries at this in progress right now.   

[btdart20]

Miller is breaking FIP...  -0.15!

[ChosenOne21]

55 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I have a question. Why would the A's trade Miller? Why would the A's trade Miller for another player who has five years of control left, when they could just keep the high-performing young guy they have locked up through 2028? If you're a team that is looking to build for the future don't you build around players like Miller?

And if you're waiting for some point in the future where you're the Las Vegas A's, I'm still not sure you're making any moves because there are no very young players who're likely to be both more valuable than Miller and need 3-4 years in the minors.

This is a very good point. I think I've come around to the idea that it doesn't make sense for the A's to trade for Kjerstad, even if on paper it's at least somewhat fair.

If they could get two to four guys who are pretty good but a couple years away, I think that makes more sense for them. They'd probably also want some pitching back which would be an issue for us.

[Explosivo]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not going to lie to you. When you started using words like “flash” to describe the incredible talent of a young pitcher like Miller that was confusing to me. And then when you compared Coloumbe and Suarez to Miller, describing them as “the same level without the flash”, I was even more confused.

Do you think Felix Bautista is “flash” or do you think that he is MUCH better than Cano, Coloumbe, Suarez, and every other member of our pen?

Stuff/ability matters to a great degree when succeeding against upper echelon opponents when the stakes are at the greatest.

Yes it’s possible to find another diamond in the rough somewhere. But is that what you would like to rest our postseason hopes?

Production. Production. Stuff/ability matters and there are more ways up the mountain than  throwing that hard. Yes, it’s rare. Yes it’s elite but there are other guys who deliver similar production that won’t cost as much. Danny is one of those guys. He doesn’t throw 103 but he produces in a similar way. I’m of the opinion that Suarez can do the same. Does he have the same “flash” at 103? No, but will he produce similar results? Absolutely. Movement is just as effective as blowing it by guys. I agree Miller’s command of 103 is incredible.

And as we saw with Felix, when you throw that hard for that long, it’s generally not sustainable for long periods of time. When you combine having diabetes as well, well, there’s just a lot to consider there especially knowing you are getting Felix back next year. So I’m trusting that there is a similar guy out there that our scouts have zero’d in on that will deliver the piece we need to be a championship team. 

While Miller is great, the only reason folks are clamoring for him and him alone is because that’s where the focus is now. Turn your focus on other players and you’ll be surprised at what you see, which is similar production.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I have a question. Why would the A's trade Miller? Why would the A's trade Miller for another player who has five years of control left, when they could just keep the high-performing young guy they have locked up through 2028? If you're a team that is looking to build for the future don't you build around players like Miller?

And if you're waiting for some point in the future where you're the Las Vegas A's, I'm still not sure you're making any moves because there are no very young players who're likely to be both more valuable than Miller and need 3-4 years in the minors.

1) Injury risk

2) Valuing everyday players vs a reliever/potential starter 

That’s about it.

I personally don’t think they trade him if they do intend to make him a starter again. 

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Injury risk

2) Valuing everyday players vs a reliever/potential starter 

That’s about it.

I personally don’t think they trade him if they do intend to make him a starter again. 

If I had one reason to trade him it would be the injury risk for Miller is about 30 times higher than for a non-pitcher.

[ChosenOne21]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

If I had one reason to trade him it would be the injury risk for Miller is about 30 times higher than for a non-pitcher.

Yeah, it's possible they could prefer the safe asset and the Orioles, being strongly in contention, prefer to take the risk.