Great Example of why Blown Saves/Holds are a bad stat

[Pickles]

I hate when people cite save percentage and/or blown save percentage when evaluating relief pitchers because it is a stat that is so wildly dependent on context it tells you very little on its own.  I think looking at overall team numbers is a better use of it but still flawed.

And last night's game was a great example.

Kimbrel was credited with a hold last night, despite allowing 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and it was actually Akin who was credited with the blown save, despite giving up 0 runs personally.

I was just looking at the box score and this absurdity jumped out at me.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I don't think most serious baseball fans even look at holds or even save percentages all that much. Anyone who watched the game knows that blown save is on Kimbrel and not Akin.

A pitcher who comes into to clean another pitcher's mess deserves less blame as we saw last night.

Edited May 9 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I hate when people cite save percentage and/or blown save percentage when evaluating relief pitchers because it is a stat that is so wildly dependent on context it tells you very little on its own.  I think looking at overall team numbers is a better use of it but still flawed.

And last night's game was a great example.

Kimbrel was credited with a hold last night, despite allowing 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and it was actually Akin who was credited with the blown save, despite giving up 0 runs personally.

I was just looking at the box score and this absurdity jumped out at me.

They need to adjust the blown save to the pitcher who's "earned run" blew the save. If an error "blew the save" then none is awarded.

[Morgan423]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They need to adjust the blown save to the pitcher who's "earned run" blew the save. If an error "blew the save" then none is awarded.

Yeah, it's quite bizarre that this isn't the case. 

[Malike]

They should get rid of the stupid save rule then people wouldn't be compelled to use washed up relievers to compile stats for milestones.

[Sports Guy]

I hate it too. That damn @Frobby brings up save% all the time.  It drives me nuts.

There are a lot of stats like that. 
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I hate it too. That damn @Frobby brings up save% all the time.  It drives me nuts.

There are a lot of stats like that. 
 

 

Any guy in a ML bullpen should be able to convert a 3 run save at a very high rate.

It's not a noteworthy task to get three outs before giving up three runs.

[Bemorewins]

I don’t need any stat to confirm what my own eyes are telling me, Kimbrel has not been effective and is not very reliable.

He has big time issues with command, and is overly reliant on a fastball that does not have the kind of velo nor movement to trouble most big league hitters.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They need to adjust the blown save to the pitcher who's "earned run" blew the save. If an error "blew the save" then none is awarded.

That would certainly improve it.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't think most serious baseball fans even look at holds or even save percentages all that much. Anyone who watched the game knows that blown save is on Kimbrel and not Akin.

A pitcher who comes into to clean another pitcher's mess deserves less blame as we saw last night.

I mean, Kimbrel got two outs. Akin just needs an out to get a save. He should convert that 75% of the time. I have no problem with Akin getting a BS there. I agree, if there is a negative version of "quality start" for relief appearances, Kimbrel definitely deserves one of those.  

[ChipTait]

6 hours ago, Malike said:

They should get rid of the stupid save rule then people wouldn't be compelled to use washed up relievers to compile stats for milestones.

"Mic drop"

Boom!

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Any guy in a ML bullpen should be able to convert a 3 run save at a very high rate.

It's not a noteworthy task to get three outs before giving up three runs.

The easiest way to keep a closer from getting overworked is to not use him every time there’s a three run save situation.  But I think the CBA must require it now.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They need to adjust the blown save to the pitcher who's "earned run" blew the save. If an error "blew the save" then none is awarded.

But then we could discuss the merits of earned vs unearned runs. You could pick out cases where a pitcher gives up three sharp singles to load the bases with two outs, then some runs score on an iffy hit/error decision that's ruled an error, then the pitcher gives up 2-3 more hard hits and more runs, but because the error was with two outs it's all unearned.

Or, the infielders mess up who's going to catch a popup with two outs, it falls untouched for a hit scoring two runs, which are both earned.

The world would be a better place if Chadwick had decided in 1870 that runs were just runs, wins and losses were solely a team stat, and 100 years later saves followed that precedence.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Malike said:

They should get rid of the stupid save rule then people wouldn't be compelled to use washed up relievers to compile stats for milestones.

If we're getting a time machine to go stop the save rule from being invented there's a pretty long list of things to fix.

[Can_of_corn]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

The easiest way to keep a closer from getting overworked is to not use him every time there’s a three run save situation.  But I think the CBA must require it now.

I suggested that ages ago to help mitigate arbitration raises for closers.