The pitch count era

[Frobby]

This thread comes from a brief discussion @Philipand I had last night about pitch counts.  

BB-ref doesn’t have any pitch count data from before 1988, so we’ll never know how many pitches Jim Palmer or Mike Cuellar or Dave McNally pitched in a typical game. But looking just at the data from 1988 is pretty interesting.  

That year, the average pitches per start was 96.  There were 597 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and 140 different pitchers did it.  Mark Langston did it 20 times.  13 pitchers had a game where they topped 150 pitches, topped by Greg Maddux at 167 pitches.  

Last year, the average pitches per start was 85.   There were 4 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and nobody did it more than once.  Alex Cobb topped the list at 131 pitches.  

We’ve had this same discussion countless times regarding the innings thrown by starters, but I thought it was interesting to look at it from the context of pitches.  The idea of pulling a pitcher from a no-hitter after 103 pitches, like the O’s did with Bradish a few days ago, would have been pretty laughable in 1988.   Now, it’s barely even debatable.  

The general theory is that pitchers today don’t pace themselves, but go max effort on almost every pitch (even if it’s breaking stuff they’re trying to create max spin), whereas back in the day pitchers coasted along at 90% effort unless or until they needed to “reach for something extra.”   The ability of almost any hitter to knock one out of the park means that pitchers can’t coast like they used to.  But sometimes I wonder how so many guys could throw a massive number of pitches compared to today.  I don’t really want to rehash the whole “today’s pitches are soft” debate, but it’s really striking how much the game has changed in the last 36 years, to say nothing of the previous years where pitch count data isn’t available.  

[Osornot]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This thread comes from a brief discussion @Philipand I had last night about pitch counts.  

BB-ref doesn’t have any pitch count data from before 1988, so we’ll never know how many pitches Jim Palmer or Mike Cuellar or Dave McNally pitched in a typical game. But looking just at the data from 1988 is pretty interesting.  

That year, the average pitches per start was 96.  There were 597 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and 140 different pitchers did it.  Mark Langston did it 20 times.  13 pitchers had a game where they topped 150 pitches, topped by Greg Maddux at 167 pitches.  

Last year, the average pitches per start was 85.   There were 4 games where a pitcher met or exceeded 120 pitches, and nobody did it more than once.  Alex Cobb topped the list at 131 pitches.  

We’ve had this same discussion countless times regarding the innings thrown by starters, but I thought it was interesting to look at it from the context of pitches.  The idea of pulling a pitcher from a no-hitter after 103 pitches, like the O’s did with Bradish a few days ago, would have been pretty laughable in 1988.   Now, it’s barely even debatable.  

The general theory is that pitchers today don’t pace themselves, but go max effort on almost every pitch (even if it’s breaking stuff they’re trying to create max spin), whereas back in the day pitchers coasted along at 90% effort unless or until they needed to “reach for something extra.”   The ability of almost any hitter to knock one out of the park means that pitchers can’t coast like they used to.  But sometimes I wonder how so many guys could throw a massive number of pitches compared to today.  I don’t really want to rehash the whole “today’s pitches are soft” debate, but it’s really striking how much the game has changed in the last 36 years, to say nothing of the previous years where pitch count data isn’t available.  

Great point(s).  In my unknowledgeable view, I think the body structure (arm, elbow, shoulder) has not caught up to the mechanical aspects of throwing (or being able to) 95+ with "spin" rates, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'll have to try to dig up some articles or some links, but the Dodgers of the 1950s and 1960s kept pretty good records of pitch counts. And the average Dodger start of that era saw about 100 pitches. 

The biggest difference was the range of numbers, or the standard deviation. The average was about 100, but there were quite a few more games with 30 or 140. If Drysdale or Koufax got roughed up early they might pull them after an inning or two. But they'd also sometimes let them pitch into the 11th.

Example, in 1960 Koufax had five starts where he didn't make it to the third inning, including one where he didn't get an out while allowing five runs. And another where he was pulled after a third of an inning. But also had a game where he pitched 13 innings, allowing just three hits but four runs and nine walks, taking the loss to the Cubs.

Edited May 30 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The general theory is that pitchers today don’t pace themselves, but go max effort on almost every pitch (even if it’s breaking stuff they’re trying to create max spin), whereas back in the day pitchers coasted along at 90% effort unless or until they needed to “reach for something extra.”   The ability of almost any hitter to knock one out of the park means that pitchers can’t coast like they used to.  But sometimes I wonder how so many guys could throw a massive number of pitches compared to today.  I don’t really want to rehash the whole “today’s pitches are soft” debate, but it’s really striking how much the game has changed in the last 36 years, to say nothing of the previous years where pitch count data isn’t available.  

I really do think it comes down to approach. Decades ago pitchers knew that there was a limit to how hard they could throw and keep going inning after inning. Bob Gibson certainly threw hard, probably mid-90s, and compared to a MLB fastball in the mid 80s that was pretty terrifying. But I think if he'd come up today instead of throwing in the mid-90s he'd be throwing 102. And if he threw 102 and tried to go 34 starts/304 innings like he did in 1968 something would break. 

It's as simple as that. Back in the day when pitchers were expected to complete games they got a feel for how hard they could pitch and how crazy a slider you can throw without tearing something. Before Tommy John a tear meant the end of a lucrative career. But post-TJ, Driveline and 13-man staffs and all the rest has told them to forget all that, you can throw harder, you can spin faster. In a world where everyone complete ignores the speed limit, you can't win a race going 55.

Edited May 30 by DrungoHazewood

[24fps]

10 minutes ago, Osornot said:

Great point(s).  In my unknowledgeable view, I think the body structure (arm, elbow, shoulder) has not caught up to the mechanical aspects of throwing (or being able to) 95+ with "spin" rates, etc.

Add to that the explosion of opportunity in youth baseball over the last 40 years or so.  Pitchers are reaching the pros with far more wear and tear on their bodies than they did in earlier times.  Coupled with the trend toward max effort all the time, I'm not surprised at the tendency to rigorously limit pitches per game.

[Moose Milligan]

I just remember 120 seeming to be the magic mark for guys like Mussina and McDonald back in the day.  

[Spy Fox]

On the Rates and Barrels podcast the other day, they discussed league expansion and mentioned in passing a way it might affect pitchers' approaches. The comment was that a more diluted pool of hitting talent could allow pitchers to take it easier with the bottom third of lineups. I imagine it could also nudge teams to want more innings out of their best pitchers, if with the pitching pool itself diluted. 

It makes sense to me that 25 years of non-expansion could facilitate this gradual increase of max-effortness. 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just remember 120 seeming to be the magic mark for guys like Mussina and McDonald back in the day.  

I always thought it was 130, thinking back to late 90's, early 2000's.  Thinking back to that time, if a starter left in the 6th inning, he was knocked out early.

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more use of openers.  The best 3 hitters are almost always stacked in the first 3 position in the lineup.  Using a reliever w/ max velocity and plus stuff seems like a good idea, maybe especially against likely rival for wild card spot.  Especially because there is an emphasis on how many times thru the lineup a starter has gone. 

[Yossarian]

It's interesting to note that the two examples Frobby gave off pitchers that the a lot - Maddux and Langston - were not known as flame throwers,  rather, lower velocity cerebral location type pitchers. 

I'm reminded of the biography I read on Satchell Paige a few years back.   Seemingly everything about Satchell seems to take on a "Paul Bunyon" type of hyperbole, but the two things that can't be denied are: he threw hard and he threw a lot.  In his Barnstorming days of traveling town to town, he was the draw for fans.   This required him to pitch in nearly every stop they made.   I can't imagine how many pitches he would throw in a game,  or week.

[Royle]

The one that stands out in my memory was Tito Landrum taking Britt Burns of the White Sox deep to break up a 0-0 tie in the 10th inning of the clinching game 4 of the 1983 ALCS.  It was Burns’ 150th pitch of the game.

I can still see Burns standing on the hill, hands on hips, with a look of utter dejection on his face.  

 

Edited May 30 by Royle

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

It's interesting to note that the two examples Frobby gave off pitchers that the a lot - Maddux and Langston - were not known as flame throwers,  rather, lower velocity cerebral location type pitchers. 

I'm reminded of the biography I read on Satchell Paige a few years back.   Seemingly everything about Satchell seems to take on a "Paul Bunyon" type of hyperbole, but the two things that can't be denied are: he threw hard and he threw a lot.  In his Barnstorming days of traveling town to town, he was the draw for fans.   This required him to pitch in nearly every stop they made.   I can't imagine how many pitches he would throw in a game,  or week.

I read a Satchel bio earlier this year, and while it's true he pitched a lot, he also had many, many barnstorming games where The Great Satchel Paige started and then came out after 2-3 innings. He also had a dead arm season or two in the middle of his career where it kind of looked like he  was done, but somehow recovered. By the time he got to the Majors I'm sure he was no longer a fireballer. And in his late 40s, early 50s I'd be surprised if he was much over 80 mph.

[OriolesMagic83]

I remember reading somewhere that Nolan Ryan used to regularly throw over 200 pitches a game because he walked and struck out so many hitters and still threw complete games.  Seems like there would be logs of pitch counts somewhere for at least some of the games.  We're not talking 1910.

[jabba72]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I remember reading somewhere that Nolan Ryan used to regularly throw over 200 pitches a game because he walked and struck out so many hitters and still threw complete games.  Seems like there would be logs of pitch counts somewhere for at least some of the games.  We're not talking 1910.

Nolan Ryan threw 235 pitches in one game (mlb.com) I dont know if that was uncommon for him, but the fact its still remembered today suggests Ryan didn't throw 200+ pitches often, maybe it only happened one time. Maybe not.

[HowAboutThat]

I know nothing about pitch types but my own thoughts:

as pitches themselves have gotten more complicated, there is much more twisting of the arm, which logically would lead to more injuries because it’s not a very natural motion. When I was a kid it seemed to be fastball/not-fastball and that was it, now it seems there’s a myriad of pitches, each badly stressing the arm

im perpetually amazed where Frobby finds these stats, so I have no research to share, but it would be fascinating to know what the contact rate was. Now it seems to be Homer or K but I remember being overjoyed when Jeff Burroughs hit 30 whole home runs in 1974. Now Santander has an off year if he hits 28.
 

Edited May 30 by Philip