The 2024 Trade Deadline

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The comparable on the prospect ratings to the deal they accepted would be Trace Bright and Billy Cook. I’m not sure how/why you’d think Elias would deal Kjerstad for a RP. Or his value is that low after coming off the top end of the top 100 list. We could’ve done something like Horvath and a non top 30 and it would’ve beaten their offer.

Only we didn’t and the Marlins, most likely, preferred DeLosSantos to Horvath and other Oriole prospects.

Edited July 26 by RZNJ

[Orioles Jim]

Disappointing 2024 season aside (and aside from the fact that we could use a RH power bat, no I didn’t want him), I’m not sad to see him leave the AL East.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I thought Arozarena might bring back a little more than that.  I think the key stat was Arozarena's salary: $8.1 million.

Owed less than 3M

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The comparable on the prospect ratings to the deal they accepted would be Trace Bright and Billy Cook. I’m not sure how/why you’d think Elias would deal Kjerstad for a RP. Or his value is that low after coming off the top end of the top 100 list. We could’ve done something like Horvath and a non top 30 and it would’ve beaten their offer.

First of all, where a player ranks system to system isn’t an indication they are the same talent/upside wise.

Sexondly, Seattle probably has a deeper system than the Os right now.

[RZNJ]

The fact that Arizona didn’t have to give up a top 100 prospect for a reliever with 2+ years of service time should be a good sign regarding rentals like Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez.   Stowers for Estevez.   Aron Estrada or Thomas Sosa for Scott.   

That still leaves Norby, Beavers, Bradfield, McDermott, Povich, Baumeister, etc.  to figure a way to get Fedde and, perhaps, Taillon whom the Orioles are rumored to be interested in.

That would put a pretty big dent in our mid tier prospects but, depending on the cost for Fedde and Taillon, we’d have a couple left.

That would give us 4 viable starters for next year and a bullpen that will need to be tuned up.  Felix will be back, hopefully close to the old Felix.   Also Cano and Coulombe.   The rest.  Who knows?

The Orioles would be betting on this years draft and for some of the Latin players to become real prospects to fill that void in the system.   We already looked lacking after the top of the system.  These hypothetical trades would only exacerbate that.

[sportsfan8703]

Upcoming starts for SP of interest,

7/26 F - Kikuchi vs Tex

7/27 Sat - Skubal vs Twins

7/27 Sat - Fedde vs SEA

7/27 Sat - Anderson vs Oak

7/28 Sun - Crochet vs SEA

Things could go down tonight after the games for Saturday’s scheduled SP.  

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Draftkings had us as the favorite to land Kikuchi last night before they took their odds down. 

Kikuchi for Fabian(#30 on @Tony-OHpower rankings)?  

[86this]

8 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Yeah sorry. I don’t know how to cut Twitter feeds but it was quoted by Melewski. The question was do the Orioles looks to AAA for help?
 

 

Hyde: "We’re in first place. To get younger, I don’t know. The roster questions are more directed to Mike. We have conversations about our roster constantly but we’ll see what happens here at the deadline too. Lot cld happen this week."

So you can copy the twitter url or on the feed, there's an "up" arrow in the lower right corner that allows for 'copy link'.  Then paste it into the hangout space, press enter, WAIT for the feed to expand and then you should be able to submit reply.

[sportsfan8703]

A couple things, 

1. Hyde sounded like worn down himself about how the team played in the Marlins series. Upset. He said we gotta learn how to put our foot on team’s necks with a lead and not just stop scoring. 

2. I would call this deadline a success if we got one of Anderson/Fedde/Taillon, Kikuchi, one of Estevez/Scott. Less would be to sub in Montas for one of the first 3 names. That would be disappointing. Awesome would be to sub in one of Skubal/Crochet for the first 3 names. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, where a player ranks system to system isn’t an indication they are the same talent/upside wise.

Sexondly, Seattle probably has a deeper system than the Os right now.

Fangraghs is only one source, and their ratings include players who’ve graduated during 2024.  However, here’s how many players at or above a certain rating they think each system has:

35+ and over: SEA 34/BAL 45

40 and over: 23/29

40+ and over: 12/18

45 and over: 9/11

45+ and over: 7/8

50 and over: 5/5

55+ and over: 0/4

Pretty much no matter where you want to draw the line on depth, we are deeper than Seattle.
 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A couple things, 

1. Hyde sounded like worn down himself about how the team played in the Marlins series. Upset. He said we gotta learn how to put our foot on team’s necks with a lead and not just stop scoring. 

2. I would call this deadline a success if we got one of Anderson/Fedde/Taillon, Kikuchi, one of Estevez/Scott. Less would be to sub in Montas for one of the first 3 names. That would be disappointing. Awesome would be to sub in one of Skubal/Crochet for the first 3 names. 

I expect #2 but I do think we need 2 starters and 2 relievers which I know is a lot but rental relievers won’t cost top prospects.

If we are only getting 1 of each, I vote Fedde and Scott.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Keep in mind when looking at deadline trade returns that other than the top 100 overall lists, team top 30 prospect lists don’t really get updated properly mid-season, (seemingly especially MLB Pipeline).

For instance, Forret and Etzel aren’t on the Orioles MLB Pipeline top 30. Max Wagner, John Rhodes and Hudson Haskin are 13, 22 and 24. 

Non top-100 centerpiece players in trades like De Los Santos and Hopkins who have had good years are going to be valued by teams much higher than most prospect lists will indicate, and the prospect lists will catch up after. 

[RZNJ]

I’m an Elias fan like most but my concern is that he gets focused on 1 or 2 guys and negotiations drag close to the deadline while good/similar options go off the board.   Maybe the Marlins targeted DeLosSantos but it’s hard to figure we couldn’t beat what the Marlins got for a power lefty with 2 years left.   I’m ok with rentals but then your short next year.  

[Moose Milligan]

Also stoked that we don’t have to face Arozarena nearly as much anymore. That’s a positive. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

The comparable on the prospect ratings to the deal they accepted would be Trace Bright and Billy Cook. I’m not sure how/why you’d think Elias would deal Kjerstad for a RP. Or his value is that low after coming off the top end of the top 100 list. We could’ve done something like Horvath and a non top 30 and it would’ve beaten their offer.

Are those the Fangraphs grades?    I like Fangraphs and admire the nuance of Eric Longenhagen's work, but feel it is generally well known he can't keep up the "meal he likes to prepare" for everyone everywhere all at once.     The meal he likes to prepare image is his own words from a session he did during Arizona Fall League.

It was barely two years ago in a chat he responded something like Gunnar Henderson was still a ~45 FV prospect even though in April/May/June 2022 he provided ample evidence he is about the best player in the world.

What Tony does for the Orioles is a privilege to get to have week in week out in season.    I don't think I'd have pushed to Kjerstad either on reflection, but don't believe Bright/Cook would have been a viable bid.     I don't think Callis and Mayo over at MLB.com drill that deep on Deyvison/Aidan Smith kind of guys until they have to do 60 second bullets after those guys become trade properties.    They do promote Jackson Holliday scenarios because a few casual fans have heard of him.

Right now Callis/Mayo have guys like Rhodes/Haskin/Baumler in the Orioles 20-30 range, labels Ken Rosenthal will reflexively tweet out minutes after he has minimally viable sourcing.