Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Why do you guys think the GB/FB rate has gone down so much?

[Say O!]

How has Guthrie's stuff looked lately?

Velocity of fastball?

Bite on breaking ball?

To me, when Guthrie has been hit up, his fastball doesn't seem to have the lights out zip and his breaking ball gets rather flat.

[Moose Milligan]

I think he's getting tired...he hasn't thrown this many big league innings before.

[NoVaO]

While i agree that the homers should "split the difference", i am not sure the rest of his stats are.

I mean, his walk rate in the minors(if you project it into the majors) was about 4, which is where it has been.

His K rate is actually higher than i would expect but i do think he can keep it around 6 and i didn't before...He has shown me that he can do that.

I don't think you can just take a player's walk rate and automatically assume they'll have a walk rate close to 4. I've looked at some data the past two years in regards to pitchers entering the league and having over 100 innings pitched in a season. There are about 48 pitchers in that group.

Guys with walk rates like Guthrie (low 3's) are somewhat of a mixed bag. You would expect there walk rates to go up, but it doesn't happen to the extent you think. And the fact that Guthrie has never had poor walk rates in his career leads me to believe he can be right in that 2.5-3 range if in fact he has figured something out. The actual projection, using his career walk rate which is fine because he hasn't pitched under AA projects to a 3.65 walk rate.

I think the answer to his this GB:FB ratio is in the amount of line drives he has given up. I haven't looked at the data, but I bet a lot of his ground balls might be becoming line drives.

I think his stuff has clearly not been the same recently. His velocity has been down, his movement hasn't been there as much as it was before, and his command hasn't been as sharp. I'm not sure his problems are as much related to the league figuring him out than it is with him losing some of his stuff recently.

[Avsfan]

Look, we know that he is not as good as his 1st half. But even in the second half, when he has not been his best he has put together some good starts. He deserves one like tonight. If he puts up a good start after the next start are you going to throw the stats up again?

The fact is that people on this board were throwing around so much exaggeration and hyberbole about guthrie it was scary.

People were suggesting that he was the "missing link" to our future after 40 innings and so on and so forth. It was pretty ridiculous.

Then there were certain people on the board who were just saying "wait it out...I like what I see, but I need to see it all year" and were basically called haters in a generic sense of the word.

Listen I want Guthrie to do well...I'd love for him to be here for years...and help us win many games...but I'm skeptical of those first 10 games of the season.

[Sports Guy]

Speaking of hyperbole, ...

Well many posters, including you i believe, think he is a 2/3 starter. Many certainly think he is the missing link in the pitching staff.

[Fan4Life]

The last 3 games or so our pitching (starters and relievers) seem to be leaving a lot of balls up, and thus have been getting clobbered. Is this a sign of fatigue?

[Sports Guy]

BTW, where are all the Guthrie supporters in this thread?

Guthrie has a great start and you all come out of the woodwork talking about how good he is.

Now he struggles, i post not so favorable stats over half of a season(about) and now you are all quiet?

[Mackus]

Speaking of hyperbole, ...

I don't think thats hyperbole at all. There were a whole lot of people who were adamant that he was a top of the rotation starter after his first two months.

I still think he'll be a very good pitcher with ERAs in the 3.75-4.50 range (which if he's in the lower region of that range, is a #2 starter) but there was certainly a large contingent of people who thought he'd continue to be an ace type pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think thats hyperbole at all. There were a whole lot of people who were adamant that he was a top of the rotation starter after his first two months.

I still think he'll be a very good pitcher with ERAs in the 3.75-4.50 range (which if he's in the lower region of that range, is a #2 starter) but there was certainly a large contingent of people who thought he'd continue to be an ace type pitcher.

I don't recall you putting that as high as 4.50.

[tywright]

Well many posters, including you i believe, think he is a 2/3 starter. Many certainly think he is the missing link in the pitching staff.

He has the STUFF to be a 2/3 starter...that's evident. But he's had back2back bad starts in August and now we are questioning that? That's being reactionary, which is hypocritical since you were calling out me and other Guts believers after his fast start.

He had a 3.93 ERA in July which is a decent month. His last 2 starts have made your "splits" misleading

[Mackus]

I don't recall you putting that as high as 4.50.

I could have said 3.75-4.25, not 100% sure.

[Sports Guy]

He has the STUFF to be a 2/3 starter...that's evident. But he's had back2back bad starts in August and now we are questioning that? That's being reactionary, which is hypocritical since you were calling out me and other Guts believers after his fast start.

He had a 3.93 ERA in July which is a decent month. His last 2 starts have made your "splits" misleading

Not really....He had some ok to bad starts in July as well...Just as you can say, let's take away this start, we can also take out the Oakland start.

It works both ways.

Bottom line is, you all thought he could have this great command for the rest of his career...He had 6 straight starts where he walked 3 or more.

Many thought his HR rate would stay low because of his "great stuff"...That is obviously incorrect.

Many were talking about him being the one pitcher who could keep his BABIP very low...Well, that is going up and, coincidentally, so are his other stats.

This is almost splitting his starts down the middle. He isn't going as deep into the game, he isn't getting the groundballs, his command isn't nearly as good and the "luck" factor is getting more and more evened out and guess what? His stats are much worse because of that.

[Sports Guy]

I could have said 3.75-4.25, not 100% sure.

Pretty sure you did.

[Moose Milligan]

BTW, where are all the Guthrie supporters in this thread?

Guthrie has a great start and you all come out of the woodwork talking about how good he is.

Now he struggles, i post not so favorable stats over half of a season(about) and now you are all quiet?

Lol, you're a piece of work sometimes dude.