Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

Half of his starts have been below average? Come on SG...he's had 16 starts with a game score at or above the average score of 50

And you're still rehashing the minor league numbers? Haven't we already agreed that maybe he has become a better pitcher over the years?

And his potential (ceiling) is what we saw from March thru July. He's not going to have amazing starts everytime he steps on the mound, but given an entire season he will be around 3.75 to 4.25 for the next couple years.

Bringing up his MiL numbers is a lot more relevant than talking about is potential when he was drafted years ago.

[Sports Guy]

That's what I was saying

As for arguing with SG, it's fun and entertaining because he's easy to argue with.

But yet you will look at his first 10 starts, say he has 2/3 ability and ignore these last 8 and his MiL stats? Sorry but the splits are overwhelmingly against you.

[tywright]

I don't think he's going to have 5.00 ERA the rest of the way, so he's going to be right around 3.50 for the year. A 4.25 ERA (what FIPS is at right now) the rest of the way is where I see him, which would give an ERA for the year of 3.58+/- (based on 60 more IP).

Like I said before, we should expect Guts to be at 3.75 to 4.25 ERA for the next couple years.

[tywright]

Bringing up his MiL numbers is a lot more relevant than talking about is potential when he was drafted years ago.

Sure it is, but you are too stubborn to accept that maybe a light went off in his head and that Mazzone has helped him realize his potential.

[tywright]

But yet you will look at his first 10 starts, say he has 2/3 ability and ignore these last 8 and his MiL stats? Sorry but the splits are overwhelmingly against you.

I never expected him to maintain a sub 2 ERA! And you continue to think that a 4.90 ERA of the last 8 starts is where he will be for the rest of his career. That's hypocritical SG!

[Sports Guy]

I don't think he's going to have 5.00 ERA the rest of the way, so he's going to be right around 3.50 for the year. A 4.25 ERA (what FIPS is at right now) the rest of the way is where I see him, which would give an ERA for the year of 3.58+/-

Like I said before, we should expect Guts to be at 3.75 to 4.25 ERA for the next couple years.

Oh, so now you are changing it back to a 3.50?

[Sports Guy]

I never expected him to maintain a sub 2 ERA! And you continue to think that a 4.90 ERA of the last 8 starts is where he will be for the rest of his career. That's hypocritical SG!

The difference is, i am looking at his CAREER NUMBERS!! You aren't.

[tywright]

Oh, so now you are changing it back to a 3.50?

I said all along he was going to be a 3.50 ERA for the year...and left myself room for error (back in June) that his high range would be 3.80. Never have I swayed from that prediction.

[Sports Guy]

Sure it is, but you are too stubborn to accept that maybe a light went off in his head and that Mazzone has helped him realize his potential.

Key word there.

I have yet to see you acknowledge the fact that his splits(not just ERA) this year that i showed and his MiL stats may be indicative that he was a big fluke to begin the year.

You have always been, this is what he will be.

So, it is ok for you to ignore things but if i do it, i am stubborn?

[tywright]

The difference is, i am looking at his CAREER NUMBERS!! You aren't.

So you think he's going to continue to have a 4.90 ERA for his entire career? How is that not hypocritical? You're basing his last 8 starts for his whole career? While you criticize me for predicting he will have a 3.50 ERA for the year after having 10 starts of sub 2.00 ERA.

[Sports Guy]

So you think he's going to continue to have a 4.90 ERA for his entire career? How is that not hypocritical? You're basing his last 8 starts for his whole career? While you criticize me for predicting he will have a 3.50 ERA for the year after having 10 starts of sub 2.00 ERA.

His MiL stats and these last 8 starts show he is a #5 at best and probably a reliever.

I am not even considering his relief time in April this year or the little bit of ML time he had with Cleveland.

Just talking his MiL stats and since he has been a full time starter with the Orioles.

[tywright]

Key word there.

I have yet to see you acknowledge the fact that his splits(not just ERA) this year that i showed and his MiL stats may be indicative that he was a big fluke to begin the year.

You have always been, this is what he will be.

So, it is ok for you to ignore things but if i do it, i am stubborn?

I'm not ignoring his MiL numbers! I just said that maybe something clicked in the past year. Just listen to all the scouts and Trembley who saw him last year. They new he had the ability to be a pretty good starter in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

So you think he's going to continue to have a 4.90 ERA for his entire career? How is that not hypocritical? You're basing his last 8 starts for his whole career? While you criticize me for predicting he will have a 3.50 ERA for the year after having 10 starts of sub 2.00 ERA.

Ok, let's say he finishes with a 3.50 ERA...I agree with you that he has a real shot at that.

That will, as i showed, give him a 4.7 ERA for about 15-17 starts vs the 1.74 ERA in the earlier starts.

So, in a down offensive year and with shaky peripherals, do you think that bodes well for the future?

[geschinger]

His MiL stats and these last 8 starts show he is a #5 at best and probably a reliever.

I am not even considering his relief time in April this year or the little bit of ML time he had with Cleveland.

Just talking his MiL stats and since he has been a full time starter with the Orioles.

I do think you have to give some credence to growth in Guthries game. If we had a former first round pick in Norfolk who pitched as well as Guthrie did in Buffalo last season I think many of us would think that pitcher had a chance to be at least a bit more than a #5 starter, no?

[tywright]

His MiL stats and these last 8 starts show he is a #5 at best and probably a reliever.

I am not even considering his relief time in April this year or the little bit of ML time he had with Cleveland.

Just talking his MiL stats and since he has been a full time starter with the Orioles.

Ok well you can continue to think he is a #5 starter and we'll all laugh at you when he's making the AS team every year. Not saying that he will, but he has the ability to make a couple AS games (should have this season).

I still don't understand why you can't realize that sometimes pitchers can figure things out as they get older. It will just "click" and they will pitch to another level.