Guthrie season splits

[tywright]

Not really....He had some ok to bad starts in July as well...Just as you can say, let's take away this start, we can also take out the Oakland start.

It works both ways.

Bottom line is, you all thought he could have this great command for the rest of his career...He had 6 straight starts where he walked 3 or more.

Many thought his HR rate would stay low because of his "great stuff"...That is obviously incorrect.

Many were talking about him being the one pitcher who could keep his BABIP very low...Well, that is going up and, coincidentally, so are his other stats.

This is almost splitting his starts down the middle. He isn't going as deep into the game, he isn't getting the groundballs, his command isn't nearly as good and the "luck" factor is getting more and more evened out and guess what? His stats are much worse because of that.

I never said that he would have amazing control like he was displaying. We all know he was outperforming himself as evidenced by his extremely low BABIP, but I still believe that he can post an ERA between 3.5 and 3.8, just like I said in June. Also you haven't taken into account that his velocity is about 3-4 mph slower than it was in May/June.

You know, I knew exactly when I signed on that I would see a Guts thread started by you.

[Sports Guy]

Lol, you're a piece of work sometimes dude.

Why? After Guthrie's start against Oakland, there was a 180 post thread.

Many of the people praising him go away when the stats don't favor him.

Why is that?

As much crap as i have taken from the Guthrie homers, i expect to see those same people rush to his defense when half of his starts show him to be barely be an adequate back of the rotation guy.

[tywright]

Pretty sure you did.

Pretty sure you (SG) said he would finish in the 4.25-4.75 range

[Mackus]

Pretty sure you did.

Fair enough, I'll stand by that then. Still pretty much the same point that I think he'll be a decent #3 and possibly even a solid #2 (although I think he'll be behind both Bedard and Loewen in the future, I'm still real high on Loewen).

I think your guesses on his periferals will be pretty accurate. I think 6-6.5 K/9, 2.8-3.3 BB/9, and .75-1.0 HR/9 seem reasonable. Not exactly sure what those types of numbers would translate to in a DIPS/FIPS sense, but I think the general ERA range that I guessed should be about accurate.

[tywright]

Why? After Guthrie's start against Oakland, there was a 180 post thread.

Many of the people praising him go away when the stats don't favor him.

Why is that?

As much crap as i have taken from the Guthrie homers, i expect to see those same people rush to his defense when half of his starts show him to be barely be an adequate back of the rotation guy.

It's 9 am !

[Moose Milligan]

It's 9 am !

Seriously.

SG, all I want to know is....truthfully, honestly...would you have posted this thread if Guthrie went out and pitched a shutout last night?

[Sports Guy]

I never said that he would have amazing control like he was displaying. We all know he was outperforming himself as evidenced by his extremely low BABIP, but I still believe that he can post an ERA between 3.5 and 3.8, just like I said in June. Also you haven't taken into account that his velocity is about 3-4 mph slower than it was in May/June.

For this year or his career?

As for his velocity...I have brought it up but was told he was throwing his 2 seamer more, thus the decreased velocity.

[Sports Guy]

It's 9 am !

The thread was started last night...I would be willing to bet if he had a great start, there would have been a lot more responses.

[Sports Guy]

Seriously.

SG, all I want to know is....truthfully, honestly...would you have posted this thread if Guthrie went out and pitched a shutout last night?

I don't know...Probably not...But who cares? Do you think any of the Guthrie supporters would have a started a thread after a poor start by him?

[Moose Milligan]

I don't know...Probably not...But who cares? Do you think any of the Guthrie supporters would have a started a thread after a poor start by him?

Probably not, but at least you're honest.

And consistent!

[tywright]

For this year or his career?

As for his velocity...I have brought it up but was told he was throwing his 2 seamer more, thus the decreased velocity.

I said THIS year back in late May that he would post an ERA around 3.50 and you flipped out. I reworked the prediction and made it 3.50 to 3.80 for the year

[tywright]

The thread was started last night...I would be willing to bet if he had a great start, there would have been a lot more responses.

Not everybody in the OH community is on here 24/7. You started the thread at 11PM when most people are asleep. Most people don't start checking the site until after 10am

[Sports Guy]

I said THIS year back in late May that he would post an ERA around 3.50 and you flipped out. I reworked the prediction and made it 3.50 to 3.80 for the year

Right...But do you think he can do that for next year and beyond?

[tywright]

I don't know...Probably not...But who cares? Do you think any of the Guthrie supporters would have a started a thread after a poor start by him?

You only posted it so you could argue your side of the Guts argument. It's obvious you have an ax to grind with the Guts supporters.

[clapdiddy]

Why do you guys think the GB/FB rate has gone down so much?

Its obvious that he's getting the ball up more. That's why he's giving up all these homers lately. He's laboring a lot more and hasn't had the great command of his fastball over his last half dozen or so starts.

I've never really said much about Guthrie because I've wanted to see him go through the league a couple of times. I think he's got very good stuff, but we could say the same thing about Ponson.

The difference is that Guthrie seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I think in the long run, Guthrie will wind up being a good #4 starter, and there's certainly nothing wrong with that. I think we've probably seen him at his very best, and he's certainly proven that he belongs in the majors. But, I wouldn't expect him to be an ace, or even a #2 type pitcher. His minor league numbers just aren't indicative of someone with that type of ability.