Guthrie season splits

[Mackus]

The numbers aren't great, but those are his past 10 starts...which is a very valuable split. More valuable than the July/August split that you keep on rehashing.

So a 10 start split is a lot more important than an 8 start split?

Why do I feel that if his ERA over his last 10 starts was 4.90 and over his last 8 it was 4.10, that you'd be saying the last 8 are more important and SG would be saying the last 10 are?

Wait until the end of the season to say what Guthrie is. All that really matters is how he's going to produce over an entire season anyway.

[Sports Guy]

You said the past 2 months and I showed you what he's done the past 2 months. You ask and you shall receive. He's had 3 bad starts in the past 2 months...go check the link that I so kindly provided for you. Also I did show you the rising K rate (which is good) and his HR rate. What's the problem SG...your panties in a bunch??

Should be pretty obvious that when i said 2 months, i meant July and so far in August, since that is what i posted about. You are just reaching now.

What about the rising BB rate and lower GB rate?

Weren't you one of those talking about how much of a great GB pitcher he is?

[tywright]

Why is it more valuable? Because that is what you want to show? LOL

Because it's a sample size that is commonly used. If you want I can add one more start or one less and it still doesn't matter...Guts is still a good pitcher

[tywright]

Actually, i said that early on but Frobby started a thread a month or so ago and i think i was in the 4.1-4.2 range.

Yeah after seeing him pitch well for extended period of time. You predicted 4.25-4.75 back in June

[tywright]

So a 10 start split is a lot more important than an 8 start split?

Why do I feel that if his ERA over his last 10 starts was 4.90 and over his last 8 it was 4.10, that you'd be saying the last 8 are more important and SG would be saying the last 10 are?

Wait until the end of the season to say what Guthrie is. All that really matters is how he's going to produce over an entire season anyway.

Just trying to find a split that is commonly used. Isn't a 10 start split the most commonly used?

Check out what I said about how splits don't matter...we know what Guts potential is so lets see if he can continue to pitch well.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah after seeing him pitch well for extended period of time. You predicted 4.25-4.75 back in June

Yea because he kept his ERA low long enough to the point where i didn't think he would so bad to get his ERA into that range.

However, i do think it will be high next year and beyond and really, that is what is more important.

[tywright]

Should be pretty obvious that when i said 2 months, i meant July and so far in August, since that is what i posted about. You are just reaching now.

What about the rising BB rate and lower GB rate?

Weren't you one of those talking about how much of a great GB pitcher he is?

When I see 2 months, I think the last 60 days like most people. It's early August, remember??

I never said he was a great GB pitcher...he doesn't have nearly the same ratios as Wang, Lowe, Halladay, etc.

And yes I do see his rising BB rate and I've said before it's due to batters not swinging early against him and Guts is nibbling more.

[tywright]

Yea because he kept his ERA low long enough to the point where i didn't think he would so bad to get his ERA into that range.

However, i do think it will be high next year and beyond and really, that is what is more important.

Well his FIPs is the best indicator of future ERA. Right now his FIPS is 4.26 after last night, but prior to last night it was around 3.98 if I remember correctly.

[Sports Guy]

Just trying to find a split that is commonly used. Isn't a 10 start split the most commonly used?

Check out what I said about how splits don't matter...we know what Guts potential is so lets see if he can continue to pitch well.

We do? I am glad you do because i don't know yet.

I see a guy where half of his starts have been great and half have been below league average.

I see a guy who had mediocre at best MiL numbers as well and a guy who is 28...I have no idea what his potential is...If you look at his starts in July and August and his MiL starts, his potential is a solid reliever. If you look at 10 starts in May and June, his potential is an ace.

Obviously you are hanging onto the notion that he is somewhere in the middle but i am not sure why...It is just 10 starts versus the rest of his career.

[Sports Guy]

Well his FIPs is the best indicator of future ERA. Right now his FIPS is 4.26 after last night, but prior to last night it was around 3.98 if I remember correctly.

Yea and it is rising very quickly.

[TGO]

Well his FIPs is the best indicator of future ERA. Right now his FIPS is 4.26 after last night, but prior to last night it was around 3.98 if I remember correctly.

Will you two just go see a marriage counselor already? This is getting old.

BTW, this thread illustrates the pitfalls of using splits. You can find a split to "prove" almost anything if you look hard enough.

[tywright]

We do? I am glad you do because i don't know yet.

I see a guy where half of his starts have been great and half have been below league average.

I see a guy who had mediocre at best MiL numbers as well and a guy who is 28...I have no idea what his potential is...If you look at his starts in July and August and his MiL starts, his potential is a solid reliever. If you look at 10 starts in May and June, his potential is an ace.

Obviously you are hanging onto the notion that he is somewhere in the middle but i am not sure why...It is just 10 starts versus the rest of his career.

Half of his starts have been below average? Come on SG...he's had 16 starts with a game score at or above the average score of 50

And you're still rehashing the minor league numbers? Haven't we already agreed that maybe he has become a better pitcher over the years?

And his potential (ceiling) is what we saw from March thru July. He's not going to have amazing starts everytime he steps on the mound, but given an entire season he will be around 3.75 to 4.25 for the next couple years.

[geschinger]

We do? I am glad you do because i don't know yet.

I see a guy where half of his starts have been great and half have been below league average.

I see a guy who had mediocre at best MiL numbers as well and a guy who is 28...I have no idea what his potential is...If you look at his starts in July and August and his MiL starts, his potential is a solid reliever. If you look at 10 starts in May and June, his potential is an ace.

Obviously you are hanging onto the notion that he is somewhere in the middle but i am not sure why...It is just 10 starts versus the rest of his career.

I want to be optimistic so I'm going to hope that last year at Buffalo things started to click for him and moving forward he'll be that quality #3/#4 type of guy. But you are right that at this point it's way too early to tell exactly what his long term prospectus is.

[tywright]

Will you two just go see a marriage counselor already? This is getting old.

BTW, this thread illustrates the pitfalls of using splits. You can find a split to "prove" almost anything if you look hard enough.

That's what I was saying

As for arguing with SG, it's fun and entertaining because he's easy to argue with.

[Sports Guy]

Ty...You said you think he finishes with a 3.50-3.80 ERA....

Well, lets look at that for a second....Let's assume Guthrie throws 190 IP this year(he is on pace for 192, so it is a safe assumption)...That would mean he throws another 57 innings.

3.50 ERA: 74 ER

3.60 ERA: 76 ER

3.70 ERA: 78 ER

3.80 ERA: 80 ER

Those would be his total earned runs for each.

Now, let's look at the splits...Taking his May/June stats vs the rest of the season(just listing ERA...May/june first)

3.50 ERA: 1.74/4.72

3.60 ERA: 1.74/4.90

3.70 ERA: 1.74/5.07

3.80 ERA: 1.74/ 5.26

So Ty, which would be more indicative of Guthrie(now, this is obviously not showing peripherals) based solely on ERA? Those initial 10 starts where he had the 1.74 ERA or the rest of the season's starts(say in the 15-17 range) where he had the ERA around 5?