Would you trade Fabian for Kikuchi?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Texas is only 2.5 GB in the AL West. They get back Jung, Carter, DeGrom, Dunning, and Bradford, all in the next 2-3 weeks. 

The entire AL should be really worried about them. 

You love to see ghosts around every corner...lol

I have my sights set on the big prize not worrying about a team who is 5 GB of the final Wild Card, and who was not that good last year (90 regular season wins) and got very hot/lucky in the post season.

I seriously doubt last season is in anyway repeatable for them. Depending on the moves that we make at in the next few days, we could/should be favored against anyone.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

The alternative to Kikuchi would be Tyler Anderson. But that costs $$$. I’ll believe we are spending when I see it. 

Tyler Anderson is making $13m next year and has around half that left this year. That's not really much money at all. Burnes, for example, is making over $15m this year. Kimbrel is making $13m. The payroll for the O's went up nearly 50% for this year. Now, that's not saying much since it was around $70m last year, but it's over $100m this year. 

I think the main question: do we want Tyler Anderson? His peripherals and statcast numbers are pretty lackluster. But somehow he's outpitching them. And he really needs a good defense behind him. So maybe those numbers do hold up. Especially a lefty at OPACY, I don't think righties are going to do much against him as far as the long ball. 

[LGOrioles]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

He had a career year last year and it still wasn’t anything earth shattering. His ERA+ of 89 this year is bad. His career ERA+ of 89 is bad. 

They don’t need earth shattering to be better than any starter they have besides Grayson and Burnes. Agree to disagree I guess. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

Tyler Anderson is making $13m next year and has around half that left this year. That's not really much money at all. Burnes, for example, is making over $15m this year. Kimbrel is making $13m. The payroll for the O's went up nearly 50% for this year. Now, that's not saying much since it was around $70m last year, but it's over $100m this year. 

I think the main question: do we want Tyler Anderson? His peripherals and statcast numbers are pretty lackluster. But somehow he's outpitching them. And he really needs a good defense behind him. So maybe those numbers do hold up. Especially a lefty at OPACY, I don't think righties are going to do much against him as far as the long ball. 

We need two SP to get through the season. We can nitpick each available pitcher. We’ll see what Elias does. 

[LookitsPuck]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We need two SP to get through the season. We can nitpick each available pitcher. We’ll see what Elias does. 

I don't disagree at all. Here's my list from a previous thread. I didn't have Tyler Anderson on it, but mainly because his name wasn't heavily being talked about. If I added him and say, Blake Snell, I'd put both of them as yes's and well ahead of Kikuchi. 

• Crochet - no
• Fedde - yes
• Flaherty - no
• Bassitt - maybe
• Kikuchi - maybe, but lukewarm on him
• Eflin - yes
• Eovaldi - yes
• Anderson - no
• Montas - no
• Quantrill - maybe, but lukewarm
• Luzardo - no
• Scherzer - maybe, but tracking towards no as I'm not sure if the health/durability is there
• Bauer - hell no
• Skubal - yes

I think in order of preference:

1. Skubal
2. Fedde
3. Eovaldi
4. Eflin
5. Bassitt
6. Kikuchi
7. Scherzer

 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

I think in order of preference:

1. Skubal
2. Fedde
3. Eflin
4. Kikuchi

 

That’s a narrow window, but that’s our choices. I would expand that to 6 and add Taillon and Anderson. 

Edited July 26 by sportsfan8703

[e16bball]

I had a whole post written up about this the other day, but I think it’s important to note that Kikuchi is one of the relatively rare pitchers where you can’t just quote his FIP/xFIP and treat it as more predictive than his actual ERA. 

He breaks the assumptions that are inherent in those numbers. Roughly speaking, they are built on the notion that pitchers can really only control the “true outcomes” — which are Ks, BBs, and HRs (for FIP purposes), with xFIP substituting FB rate for HRs. The idea is that all batted balls in play are generally created equal, so over time, everybody’s outcomes on those will be roughly equivalent. Which means that the ability to strike guys out, avoid walks, and avoid home runs is the real talent/impact that a pitcher provides. 

Where the assumptions fall apart, then, is when you have a pitcher whose batted balls are not created equal. In other words, if a pitcher is consistently giving up (or consistently limiting) hard, high-quality contact when batters do hit the ball, then the FIP/xFIP model doesn’t very effectively “fit” him.

And Kikuchi is one of those guys. He misses bats and he doesn’t walk lots of guys, but batters very consistently clobber the ball when they do make contact. He was 1st percentile in average EV in 2021, 1st percentile again in 2022, 12th percentile last year, and 8th percentile this year. That’s a pretty robust sample to suggest that this guy’s batted-ball “luck” isn’t just luck — it’s a consistent trait of the pitcher himself. He’s always going to give up more hits (and more extra-base hits) per contact than the average pitcher because they’re making better, harder contact against him.

 

All of that is not to say we have to reject the guy or it’s a disaster if we trade for him. I’d actually probably do this deal to install him as SP5 and at least a somewhat viable candidate to throw pitches in the postseason — though it would absolutely be as a second pickup, not the only one. My only point is that you can’t just cite the FIP and say “he’s a good bet to improve because he’s underperforming his metrics.” Those metrics just don’t really work for him, because of the nature of his batted-ball quality. 

[Three Run Homer]

I'm fine with Kikuchi if he slots in as our #4 starter.  His raw numbers aren't great but his FIP suggests he's had some bad luck this year, and he should benefit from our park.  Still need to get somebody better for #3.  

[Aristotelian]

Kikuchi with another rough start

[sportsfan8703]

I think it’s either Skubal, Anderson, or Fedde. Each player we’ve traded for isn’t a rental. 

Trades are nice, but we need to win.