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Orioles acquiring Zach Eflin

LookitsPuck

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CaptainRedbeard
CaptainRedbeard

This is a fantastic trade. Eflin is NOT a #4. He was worth 4.8 fWAR last year. 1.8 fWAR so far this year. By Fangraphs Depth Charts he is projected rest of season tied for #17 most WAR among starting

rm5678
rm5678

Etzel, Baumeister, & Horvath.

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

Their manager?  That's going to be awkward.

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AdamK Major Leaguer Rising Star

AdamK

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13 hours ago, Ripken said:

Good, fair trade.  I like Eflin.  It's a little frustrating that he's exactly the kind of FA starter we could have just paid for the last couple years but never would.  Now it cost money and three decent kids, not that they are major prospects, of course.  

True, but - at least this past offseason - our rotation wasn't decimated by injury like it has come to be. It was looking like a strength. 

This kind of salary hadn't exactly been something the team wanted to pay in the past either.

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Bemorewins Hangout Grand Counsel

Bemorewins

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8 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Oddly the prospect I wanted to give up the least was Etzel.  Let's hope the O's go far in the playoffs.  No use in crying about traded prospects.

Out of all our prospects, you valued Etzel the most?

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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So much turmoil last 48 hours pushing this guy's thread off the front page.

I imagine he'll be in town by today and starting to meet his new teammates.    He could debut tomorrow in the doubleheader.

Here was BP's lead prospect guy's time of trade pegging where he saw the guys Elias gave up fitting into the Orioles system late July 2024.

 

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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33 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

So much turmoil last 48 hours pushing this guy's thread off the front page.

I imagine he'll be in town by today and starting to meet his new teammates.    He could debut tomorrow in the doubleheader.

Here was BP's lead prospect guy's time of trade pegging where he saw the guys Elias gave up fitting into the Orioles system late July 2024.

 

Take away the big 3 and we arguably gave up our best hitting and pitching prospect + Horvath. 

It was a price worth paying because we’re falling apart, Eflin is worth it, and he’s here next year. 

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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Eflin's top-notch control: In getting right-handed starter Zach Eflin via trade, the Orioles are getting a pitcher they could slot in third in a playoff series behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

Eflin went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last season when he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. This season, over 19 starts with the Tampa Bay Rays, he is 5-7 with a 4.09 ERA.

He has incredible control and his average of 1.06 walks per every nine innings ranks second in the majors to Seattle’s George Kirby at 0.96.

Prior to walking four batters in his July 19 start at Yankee Stadium (two starts ago), Eflin had walked two batters or fewer in 51 straight starts dating to June 14, 2022. Of the 51 starts, 48 came with the Rays, the longest streak in franchise history. And it is the eighth-longest such streak by a starter since 1901.

This year from April 26 to June 16, he did not issue a walk to 165 consecutive batters spanning 39 1/3 innings. Both streaks are the longest in Tampa Bay franchise history.

The 39 1/3 innings walk-less streak was the longest in the majors since the Giants’ Ross Stripling (42.0 innings pitched) from July 2–Aug. 16, 2023, per Elias Sports Bureau.

Since both streaks concluded, Eflin has issued a walk in each of his last six starts, his longest streak since May 25–June 23, 2023 (six starts). He has not walked a batter in seven straight starts since a career-high-tying 10-start stretch from Sept. 11, 2019–Aug. 23, 2020.

In his 19 starts this season, Eflin has walked no batters in 10 games and walked one or none in 17 of the 19 starts.

“The two-seam command, the way he can command the ball to both sides of the plate, really tough,” said O’s manager Brandon Hyde. “Our hitters were excited because he’s such a tough at-bat. The heartbeat is super low on the mound. He’s pitched in huge spots at huge times in big games. That experience is going to be really valuable for us.”

And the O’s will have him through 2025 as he has one more year of team control. That is big for the Orioles.

“For sure, especially since the injuries we’ve had and guys gonna miss next year. You know, to have a really good major league starter locked up for next year too, that’s great,” added Hyde

Mewleski….

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SilverRocket Major Leaguer

SilverRocket

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Interesting I look at MLB. Did Fangraphs or BB America have him in their top 30?

Rankings are typically done before the season, and Etzel has improved his stock mostly with what he's done this year.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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Eflin praised the Rays organization for keeping him in the loop in one of his first sessions with the Baltimore gaggle.

He also mentioned Mountcastle as a semi-familiar teammate - I believe they overlapped one year in high school.    Seranthony was together with him in Philly a long time.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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23 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Take away the big 3 and we arguably gave up our best hitting and pitching prospect + Horvath. 

It was a price worth paying because we’re falling apart, Eflin is worth it, and he’s here next year. 

I think there's a fair chance that we get more value out of this trade, even ignoring that Eflin's value should come during a pennant race. But it's the Rays, and they know how to develop prospects, so who knows? That said:

Etzel: people fell in love with this kid, but his upside is middling. I could see him being a #7/8 hitter and CFer. Good player, but not an impact guy. More likely a decent 4th OF for defense and base running.

Baumeister: This is the headliner, but his impact potential is middling. Fangraphs has him as a 40 FV pitcher. He's a fastball/curveball guy without a great change up and not great command. Walking 5.48/9 innings. If you tell me the Rays make something out of him I'd believe you, but he looks like a future bullpen arm to me.

Horvath: got a lot of helium last year, but hasn't followed through in 2024. Rays are hoping for the guy they can fix. Fangraphs has him as a 40+ FV guy. He's hitting ~.235 this year, but has decent power and walks so there's upside.

If you squint, you can make an ok case for any of these 3 guys. The Rays certainly see some upside, but I'm honestly a little surprised they weren't able to get a better headliner for Eflin.

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