Trevor Rogers 2024

[dystopia]

On 9/9/2024 at 2:08 PM, LookitsPuck said:

Went through Trevor Rogers MiLB Statcast, and he averaging 89.7mph on his 4 seamer and 89.2 on his sinker.

Out of the 100 pitches, 61 were either a 4 seamer or a sinker. Of those, 18 were over 90mph (30%).

I don't know, it is incredibly discouraging that we are now seeing him not even average 90mph whereas before the trade he was 92-92.5mph on average. Where did that 2+mph go? Is it entirely because of some supposed mechanics they're trying to implement to get him to *gain* his velocity back? Or is there another injury and/or dead arm.  

Let's just be honest, we gave Norby and Stowers away for literally nothing.

[LookitsPuck]

13 minutes ago, Spakman said:

This is not an off-season deal. What is so absurd about wanting a trade deadline deal to help the current year it’s made. 
you wanna dump our prospects for reclamation projects do it in the off-season. You guys wanna keep arguing that’s a good idea then go ahead because I gotta tell you statistically you pay a high price for players at the tread deadline. You don’t pay for someone you think you can fix the off-season.

I actually appreciate this thought process.

Because if Elias truly thought Rogers could help this team this year, it's defensible only as much as there was conviction around it. Even though I at the time and very vehemently more-so now think that the evidence was poor to suggest he could be anything reliable and that Elias got hoodwinked over a SSS when his statcast data and advanced peripherals were showing that it wasn't sustainable.

If Elias really felt that Rogers wasn't going to be a piece to help the team this year, and it was all about next year and beyond....I do happen to agree with you that it's an overpay for a guy with velocity concerns and injury history with really poor peripherals. There are a bunch of options out there in free agency or even via trade that you could obtain. 

So there really must be something in Rogers, and I have no idea what, that Elias and his team feels can get him to be the 2021 or 2023 guy as early as next year, because if not...I really do truly question the logic. I do think Elias loves himself some reclamation projects. So far, we haven't seen that work out with starting pitchers. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I actually appreciate this thought process.

Because if Elias truly thought Rogers could help this team this year, it's defensible only as much as there was conviction around it. Even though I at the time and very vehemently more-so now think that the evidence was poor to suggest he could be anything reliable and that Elias got hoodwinked over a SSS when his statcast data and advanced peripherals were showing that it wasn't sustainable.

If Elias really felt that Rogers wasn't going to be a piece to help the team this year, and it was all about next year and beyond....I do happen to agree with you that it's an overpay for a guy with velocity concerns and injury history with really poor peripherals. There are a bunch of options out there in free agency or even via trade that you could obtain. 

So there really must be something in Rogers, and I have no idea what, that Elias and his team feels can get him to be the 2021 or 2023 guy as early as next year, because if not...I really do truly question the logic. I do think Elias loves himself some reclamation projects. So far, we haven't seen that work out with starting pitchers. 

My Cashman/Elias post of a few days ago addressed this problem. I suggested that Elias needs to, but won’t( or at least hasn’t yet, considering this year’s draft choices and the trade deadline)change his approach to acquiring assets, and prefers to get someone who needs restoration so he can get credit for that restoration.

That could also apply to a lesser degree to Soto and Jiminez, and each of them has also been mediocre.

I don’t want either one of them on a playoff roster, but that will only be an issue for two Games.

[Spakman]

3 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

My Cashman/Elias post of a few days ago addressed this problem. I suggested that Elias needs to, but won’t( or at least hasn’t yet, considering this year’s draft choices and the trade deadline)change his approach to acquiring assets, and prefers to get someone who needs restoration so he can get credit for that restoration.

That could also apply to a lesser degree to Soto and Jiminez, and each of them has also been mediocre.

I don’t want either one of them on a playoff roster, but that will only be an issue for two Games.

Well, I agree and principal that that’s something he loves to do but There wasn’t many  options at the trade deadline this year. I’m not sure why MLB decided to move up the trade deadline and add a bunch of playoff teams. It’s head scratcher really. I’m trying to think of a reason how this is a positive but I’m not really coming up with one.

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, Spakman said:

This is not an off-season deal. What is so absurd about wanting a trade deadline deal to help the current year it’s made. 
you wanna dump our prospects for reclamation projects do it in the off-season. You guys wanna keep arguing that’s a good idea then go ahead because I gotta tell you statistically you pay a high price for players at the tread deadline. You don’t pay for someone you think you can fix the off-season.

I can’t keep having the same discussion. You asked why people attacked you and I told you why. Anything else is really a waste of my time.  You are too close minded and just don’t want to listen.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Spakman said:

Well, I agree and principal that that’s something he loves to do but There wasn’t many  options at the trade deadline this year. I’m not sure why MLB decided to move up the trade deadline and add a bunch of playoff teams. It’s head scratcher really. I’m trying to think of a reason how this is a positive but I’m not really coming up with one.

Because they don't want teams packing it in and giving up.

Were you watching the Orioles during the long stretches they were bad?  It's not a good product.  They would rather the average teams stay in the hunt instead of selling off.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Spakman said:

This is not an off-season deal. What is so absurd about wanting a trade deadline deal to help the current year it’s made. 
you wanna dump our prospects for reclamation projects do it in the off-season. You guys wanna keep arguing that’s a good idea then go ahead because I gotta tell you statistically you pay a high price for players at the tread deadline. You don’t pay for someone you think you can fix the off-season.

You dont think he owed Stowers a shot in the MLB at this point, remember he's got other potential prospects to sign going forward. This was becoming a very bad look for Stowers, as it looked he was stuck in AAAA purgatory. IF they have plans for Rogers it might be a bad idea to star the fixing process earlier rather than later. It does not look good now, but it only has to count at the finish ans you have 2+ seasons. I have a lot of confidence in ME and company. I'll wait this one out.

[Spakman]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because they don't want teams packing it in and giving up.

Were you watching the Orioles during the long stretches they were bad?  It's not a good product.  They would rather the average teams stay in the hunt instead of selling off.

So they stay bad longer instead of making trades to improve their team long-term. Yeah definitely sounds like a good model

[Emory Eagle]

The Os I think are continuing a quest to use their park factor to get extra value out of middling lefties.  But yea this was a puzzling trade.  Must just not have been much available.  Maybe Elias blinked.

[Too Tall]

There's a pack of coyotes that get together every night in our back field and howl. Not sure why. I just assume they like to howl. For some reason, the life of this thread brings them to mind. Gonna call this thread - Mr. Roger's Neighborhood. Has a familiar ring to it.

[Baseball fandom]

18 hours ago, dystopia said:

Let's just be honest, we gave Norby and Stowers away for literally nothing.

Be careful Sportsguy and others will see this and tell you that you are wrong but they aren't fooling me either, Rogers stinks and they better not be counting on this guy next year either.  So sad because I really liked Norby and he could be doing this here. 

[sportsfan8703]

18 hours ago, dystopia said:

Let's just be honest, we gave Norby and Stowers away for literally nothing.

If they had so much value then why didn't other teams want them?  They weren't enough to fetch Flaherty, Kikuchi, or Fedde.  

Rogers was the best they could buy.  The idea that Elias somehow left value on the table is just fan think.  

[Can_of_corn]

14 hours ago, Spakman said:

So they stay bad longer instead of making trades to improve their team long-term. Yeah definitely sounds like a good model

For the team or for the league?

Also I said average not bad, the bad teams were out of it by the deadline and had a chance to sell.

You can also improve without tearing everything down to the foundations.

[Brooks The Great]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If they had so much value then why didn't other teams want them?  They weren't enough to fetch Flaherty, Kikuchi, or Fedde.  

Rogers was the best they could buy.  The idea that Elias somehow left value on the table is just fan think.  

If Rogers is the best you can buy, you stand pat and re-route your trade capital towards the bullpen. It was the worst trade Elias has made for the Orioles, and at a terrible time. 

[gamiliel]

14 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

If Rogers is the best you can buy, you stand pat and re-route your trade capital towards the bullpen. It was the worst trade Elias has made for the Orioles, and at a terrible time. 

Right. Let's just be honest and say that he did a great job building the farm system through the Houston "tank" philosophy, but now must prove he can be good at building the MLB product. But yes, this trade looks dreadful at the moment.