Adley is in an otherworldly slump right now

[now]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

When the final assessment of Elias is made, he will have to own the decision to pass on a multi MVP HOF player to select a catcher.

Adley has always had average or less EV and barrel % numbers. I was amazed at his start this year, but when all the dust clears he is at best a .260, 20 HR guy who apparently can only catch 2/3 of the time and really struggles to hit when also catching.

At least 6 2019 first round picks have a higher WAR this year.

Adley will go down as a huge miss at 1-1

 

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People need to come to grips with the idea that Adley isn’t the stud offensive player Os fans act like he is. This whole “he’s good for a catcher” is bs.  First of all, plenty of catchers will put up big stats and secondly, he’s supposed to be a franchise altering talent, so he should be good for any position much less catcher.

That said, he will be fine and end up with an OPS close to 800.

 

17 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

All these years I thought the O was for Orioles but I guess OH actually stands for Overreaction Hangout. 
Tremendous respect for what Tony does and has done with this site, and this is not directed at him or many others in any way. But the Oriole Talk forum has been an absolute clown show of bad takes lately. Apparently we have a terrible SS, a bad 1-1 pick at C, a GM who couldn’t execute a good trade if his life depended on it, and who knows what else I’ve already forgotten about. 
It’s a miracle we’re tied for first given how awful this team is, based on what gets written here by several posters. 

The three quotes above are a pretty good snapshot of the range of opinion around here, not just about Adley, but on the pessimism/optimism scale in general, or critique/support of the Orioles decision makers. At one end of the scale, Elias is God, Adley and Gunnar are godlets, and any breakdown of their stats is blasphemy. At the other end, the FO is inept, Hyde is incompetent, and the players are all overhyped duds. I guess Sports Guy won't mind holding the middle ground in this debate snapshot. 
 

Not that it matters, but personally I like to be free to pick and choose quick takes all over the map, and don't need to be consistent... following the roller coaster of the players' uneven performances and mgt. decisions. Just to add, I would hope people respond on the merits of arguments other posters make, rather than the automatic thumbs up or down just because.

[webbrick2010]

7 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Adjusted for today’s offensive environment, that’s probably in the ~130 wRC+ zone and when coupled with average defense at C is easily 5-6 WAR player.  Adley was 135 wRC+ in 2022 and 127 wRC+ in 2023.

Offensive context was much different during Mauer and Posey eras, such that their career wRC+ was 123 (Mauer) and 129 (Posey) respectively. 

and 113 so far in 2024

Is this a trend? Has he already peaked?

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

When the final assessment of Elias is made, he will have to own the decision to pass on a multi MVP HOF player to select a catcher.

Adley has always had average or less EV and barrel % numbers. I was amazed at his start this year, but when all the dust clears he is at best a .260, 20 HR guy who apparently can only catch 2/3 of the time and really struggles to hit when also catching.

At least 6 2019 first round picks have a higher WAR this year.

Adley will go down as a huge miss at 1-1

It's weird how you only pop in here when negative things happen to the team that justify (to you) all the negative takes about the team you've had in the past.  

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

When the final assessment of Elias is made, he will have to own the decision to pass on a multi MVP HOF player to select a catcher.

Adley has always had average or less EV and barrel % numbers. I was amazed at his start this year, but when all the dust clears he is at best a .260, 20 HR guy who apparently can only catch 2/3 of the time and really struggles to hit when also catching.

At least 6 2019 first round picks have a higher WAR this year.

Adley will go down as a huge miss at 1-1

This is a seriously dumb post. Apart from Adley being the consensus #1 overall pick that year, it’s a slump. It happens. He’ll be fine. 

[glenn__davis]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

This is a seriously dumb post. Apart from Adley being the consensus #1 overall pick that year, it’s a slump. It happens. He’ll be fine. 

He hates Adley.  In fairness to him, he always has.

[Just Regular]

The ESPN national superstar stuff...it is like the rookie integration tax - the only way out is through.

I will probably feel a sense of unfulfilled potential if in 5-10 years a couple Orioles don't have profiles like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge do now. 

Beat those guys in some baseball games, and it can happen fast.

I've used the analogy before Adley is Peyton Manning, and I guess that might also entail co-hosting the Olympics opening ceremonies at mid century.

During your playing career though, you can never ever be hurt.    Even if you are grinding through something.

One of the perks getting the bigger bats up is Adley's mix can shift towards 100% Catcher, 0% Designated Hitter.     Like it will be in the playoffs.

[Too Tall]

I've been on here long enough that I have come to actually understand what Just Regular says!!!!! I agree with the above! (I think )

[elextrano8]

53 minutes ago, now said:

At one end of the scale, Elias is God, Adley and Gunnar are godlets, and any breakdown of their stats is blasphemy.

I didn't see this take in any of the posts you quoted.

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, now said:

 

 

The three quotes above are a pretty good snapshot of the range of opinion around here, not just about Adley, but on the pessimism/optimism scale in general, or critique/support of the Orioles decision makers. At one end of the scale, Elias is God, Adley and Gunnar are godlets, and any breakdown of their stats is blasphemy. At the other end, the FO is inept, Hyde is incompetent, and the players are all overhyped duds. I guess Sports Guy won't mind holding the middle ground in this debate snapshot. 
 

Not that it matters, but personally I like to be free to pick and choose quick takes all over the map, and don't need to be consistent... following the roller coaster of the players' uneven performances and mgt. decisions. Just to add, I would hope people respond on the merits of arguments other posters make, rather than the automatic thumbs up or down just because.

Not sure if you were implying this or not, but my take has nothing to do with Elias being god, and everything to do with people overreacting to relatively small sample sizes of performance like it means someone's career is over.  Players and teams slump.  It doesn't mean the season is over or the player sucks.  I mean Gunnar has had a few bad weeks after STARTING THE ALL STAR GAME AT SHORTSTOP,  yet there was a long-running thread here wondering if we had a 'SS problem', in which a debate began about whether Gunnar needed to move to third base.  I mean, c'mon.  That's not an education opinion, its a ridiculous rant.

[TopGunnar]

If a few of these young players pan out Adley will be batting 7th in the near future. With that being said, I still think he’s a good player. Just not a generational type player we thought. 

[SilverRocket]

Is there a way to see per-month splits for things like chase rate, zone percentage, etc? I'm wondering if this is just pitchers adjusting to his newly aggressive mode this year and throwing him fewer strikes later in the count.

[Say O!]

Baseball savant rolling xWOBAs.

But trending better if shift to 50 PAs

 

[Frobby]

One bizarre thing about Adley’s July slump is that he only struck out 10 times in 89 PA.  That’s by far his lowest K% month of the year.  But for whatever reason, he hasn’t been barreling it up.  

[e16bball]

13 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Is there a way to see per-month splits for things like chase rate, zone percentage, etc? I'm wondering if this is just pitchers adjusting to his newly aggressive mode this year and throwing him fewer strikes later in the count.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=2&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0
 

If you start there, there is a pull-down tab in the middle of the page labeled “Split.” You can select each particular month from the options in that pull-down menu. 

There might be an easier/cleaner way to do it, but I don’t know of one. This way should get you there until somebody comes through with a better approach!

[gtman55]

I think we've seen enough of Adley to say he's not a generational talent. He's an above average hitting catcher with average power. Defensively, he's great at blocking poorly thrown balls but rarely throws out runners. He's a good pitch framer.

Very solid player that's in the midst of a terrible slump. He'll be fine.