Adley is in an otherworldly slump right now

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The median is about 12. The typical 1/1 overall pick ends up with a career value of about where Rutschman is right now.

Ok thanks 

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Adley’s WAR is hurt by the amount of times they put him at DH 

Adley is OPSing .635 at C and .982 at DH.  I don't think DH is hurting him at all.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OnlyOneOriole said:

So if a player like a Cal gets drafted and plays his entire career with the Os, should we only grade that pick on his first contract?  I wouldn't. 

I think a player who is drafted, extended, and plays well for his career with a team should be graded higher than a player who is drafted, plays well, but signs with another team once his first contract is up. 

I mean I understand what you are saying now, but every situation is different.  It seems 'nitpicky' to me. 

Anyone could have signed Cal when team control was over.

I think it's the only way it makes sense.

[25 Nuggets]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone could have signed Cal when team control was over.

I think it's the only way it makes sense.

The controlling team does have a big advantage in negotiations - unless your agent is someone like Scott Boras

[now]

I think the question about Adley as 1:1 is not so much relevant to "average 1:1" as it is to the other consensus candidate that year, Witt. And that is where, aside from HOF credentials at the position, it's still a valid position (as I imagine some argued in Elias's draft room) to compare relative long-term value (okay, CoC, at least 6-7 years) of top shelf SS vs. top-shelf catcher/DH. Just as there are valid arguments for/against drafting first-round pitchers.

Edited August 2 by now

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the track record of moving mid-career catchers somewhere else to preserve their health is not good. Piazza tried to move to first, that didn't work. Bench tried to go to third, that flopped. Yogi moved to the outfield to make space for Elston Howard, and I guess that was kind of okay for a year or two.

Yes, sometimes you succeed with young guys who aren't really good catchers anyway and have a skill set that supports other positions (Dale Murphy, Carlos Delgado, Craig Biggio). But that's not Rutschman.

I would much rather keep doing what they're doing and have him get 2/3rds or 3/4ths of his time behind the plate and DH the rest.

Oh I agree for  right now.  I am talking when SB is ready to move up to the parent club. Maybe in 2026.  Let him, the younger guy with less wear and tear on his body, take over catching full time.  Most teams don't have that kind of luxury to have 2 very good catchers. It's a unique situation.  Of course that all assumes that SB will keep progressing.  If he doesn't and he turns into James McCann?  Then that plan flies out the window.

Edited August 2 by OnlyOneOriole

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone could have signed Cal when team control was over.

I think it's the only way it makes sense.

After the years of team control you're paying some approximation of market value for the player, or whomever replaces him. So on average there's no marginal value there. All the value is during the discount years.

You have to judge drafts by years under team control prior to free agency.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Adley is OPSing .635 at C and .982 at DH.  I don't think DH is hurting him at all.

Adley usually bats righty when he DH’s, which is his stronger side.

[25 Nuggets]

For reference, only three players that were drafted 1-1 are in Cooperstown:

• Ken Griffey Jr
• Chipper Jones
• Harold Baines??

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, now said:

I think the question about Adley as 1:1 is not so much relevant to "average 1:1" as it is to the other consensus candidate that year, Witt. And that is where, aside from HOF credentials at the position, it's still a valid position (as I imagine some argued in Elias's draft room) to compare relative long-term value (okay, CoC, at least 6-7 years) of top shelf SS vs. top-shelf catcher/DH.

If you're going to do that, then almost every draft pick can be second-guessed. In 2010 do you think the Nats and their fans are gnashing teeth and wringing hands about that draft because Bryce Harper is a few wins behind Manny and Sale? (Well, of course they are, because they're sports fans, and naturally bitter).

In 2005 Justin Upton was a great 1/1, had a 32 win career, probably top quartile of all time. But he was also the 6th-most valuable player taken that round. Does that mean he was a failed pick, or some part of the D'backs decision making was flawed? Of course not. They did a very, very good job with the information at their disposal and got a very, very good player out of it.

I just don't see the point in rehashing hypotheticals years later. Oh, woe is us, why didn't we get Bobby Witt, Jr, all we ended up with is a plausible HOF catcher. Let's hammer home the point that our management could have done better, because nobody is ever happy.

[OnlyOneOriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Adley usually bats righty when he DH’s, which is his stronger side.

I was wondering if maybe just batting from his stronger side full time might be beneficial.  Was it Mullins (??) who did that a few years ago and it seemed to work. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, 25 Nuggets said:

For reference, only three players that were drafted 1-1 are in Cooperstown:

• Ken Griffey Jr
• Chipper Jones
• Harold Baines??

Mauer.

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

For reference, only three players that were drafted 1-1 are in Cooperstown:

• Ken Griffey Jr
• Chipper Jones
• Harold Baines??

That's a pretty crazy stat.  I would have guessed at least 10-15 min. 

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mauer.

Correct, thank you.  Mauer was just enshrined two weeks ago.  That makes four

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

That's a pretty crazy stat.  I would have guessed at least 10-15 min. 

The draft only started in 1965. There were no 1/1 picks for the first 93 years of organized baseball history. Hall of Fame selections typically happen at least 25-30 years after someone is drafted. Sometimes much later. So it's more-or-less impossible for any 1/1 to have gone to Cooperstown prior to about 1990.

Edited August 2 by DrungoHazewood