5 year payroll plan to see how much can be added.

[Jagwar]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No. He should be 1 or 2. Give him as many at bats as possible.

Nah, he's a run producer if you put a decent leadoff hitter and Westburg in front of him. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Nah, he's a run producer if you put a decent leadoff hitter and Westburg in front of him. 

The data has shown that it isn't optimal to put your best hitter third.

 

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The data has shown that it isn't optimal to put your best hitter third.

 

And you're going to provide this data right ?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

And you're going to provide this data right ?

https://www.amazon.com/Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1494260174

The Book is of course the book when it comes to this stuff.  I highly recommend it.

This pulls from The Book:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/constructing-lineups/

Here is a tidbit on the #3 hitter.

Quote

One of the problems is that teams often put their highest OBP batter in the third position, but the #3 spot is the one LEAST likely to lead off the second inning. James said it, others agreed, and The Book confirms it. In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions. That’s why they recommend putting your fifth-best hitter in the three spot. Whether or not you believe that, the Angels should bat Vlad fourth.

 

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://www.amazon.com/Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1494260174

The Book is of course the book when it comes to this stuff.  I highly recommend it.

This pulls from The Book:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/constructing-lineups/

Here is a tidbit on the #3 hitter.

 

 

[Jagwar]

I don't know. Even Judge bats third. And I think the O's did very well for years with Cal batting 3rd in front of Eddie.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Jagwar said:

I don't know. Even Judge bats third. And I think the O's did very well for years with Cal batting 3rd in front of Eddie.

The impact of an optimized or non-optimal lineup is small.

Overall the talent level of the players is more important.

I think you questioning the sources I quoted is just you being a contrarian. 

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The impact of an optimized or non-optimal lineup is small.

Overall the talent level of the players is more important.

I think you questioning the sources I quoted is just you being a contrarian. 

You posted one study. I gave you two examples. I guess I'm up 2 to 1!

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

You posted one study. I gave you two examples. I guess I'm up 2 to 1!

You, in what I thought was a confrontational manner, asked me for data, I provided it.

You mentioned Judge.

Guess what spot in the lineup Judge has batted at most frequently in his career?

Spoiler

It's second.

You sound like the person who is arguing just for the sake of arguing.

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You, in what I thought was a confrontational manner, asked me for data, I provided it.

You mentioned Judge.

Guess what spot in the lineup Judge has batted at most frequently in his career?

  Reveal hidden contents

It's second.

You sound like the person who is arguing just for the sake of arguing.

Yowza.... the pot calling the kettle black. In all honesty, I could have chosen the opposite position and you still would have taken the other side. 

[EricK]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not even remotely accurate. He could have a bad year. Or he could suffer a big injury. 
 

The opt outs protect him against those possibilities. 

I don't want to argue.  But I've viewed opt outs in a different manner.  I see the opt outs as a tool to protect against the contract negotiated too low in the event that salary inflation has rendered the negotiated salary too low.   If the player is worth more at a later date, the player can renegotiate.  See, the Magic Johnson, 25-year, one-million a year deal contract.  It looked great for Magic at first.  But then, it didn't.  Fortunately, for Magic Johnson, the Lakers renegotiated.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Yowza.... the pot calling the kettle black. In all honesty, I could have chosen the opposite position and you still would have taken the other side. 

I'm calling you out on it since you've been giving me a hard time.

And in all honesty I couldn't have chosen the opposite position because the available evidence doesn't support it.

You asked for data, I gave it, you decided to ignore it.

Even your Judge reference was just flat out incorrect.

You're coming off as more than a bit petulant.

Have a great night!

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, EricK said:

I don't want to argue.  But I've viewed opt outs in a different manner.  I see the opt outs as a tool to protect against the contract negotiated too low in the event that salary inflation has rendered the negotiated salary too low.   If the player is worth more at a later date, the player can renegotiate.  See, the Magic Johnson, 25-year, one-million a year deal contract.  It looked great for Magic at first.  But then, it didn't.  Fortunately, for Magic Johnson, the Lakers renegotiated.  

Well of course that’s what they are for.

However, if you suck or get hurt (see a guy like Bellinger), they also protect you and allow you to get paid a lot when perhaps you shouldn’t.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I don't know. Even Judge bats third. And I think the O's did very well for years with Cal batting 3rd in front of Eddie.

And Soto bats second..Ohtani first.  The best hitters are generally batting first or second now because lineup optimization says the best thing to do. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I don't know. Even Judge bats third. And I think the O's did very well for years with Cal batting 3rd in front of Eddie.

The Orioles made it to the postseason three times during Cal’s 21 years as a major leaguer. They were mediocre to ok for most of his career.