Taking a look at some early mock drafts...

[JTrea81]

I will try once more . . . Churchill did not write the the Orioles said this . . . he wrote that an AL team in the middle of the top ten is interested in Ackley. So . . . you cannot say that Churchill said something that he did not say. It does not matter how obvious it may seem . . . he did not say that the Orioles said this.

It is that simple.

It's more than likely that Churchill used the term "middle" of the top 10 in order to disguise his source. He wouldn't say that if he meant it literally and there was only one possible team, because that would be the same as saying an Orioles source said...

It could have been them, but it just as likely could have been the other 2, and until he says "an Orioles source has said" then it is just speculation like Craw is saying.

(Sigh)

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/middle

[allstar1579]

(Sigh)

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/middle

Yes I am very well aware of what the word "middle" means. I am also aware that aside from the first pick and the last pick, picks 2-9 would be the middle...smartass.

[ChaosLex]

Well that depends, some teams might want to stay away because of injury concerns, so he could drop a bit because of that, but he definitely has top 5 talent, and smart teams would treat him as such.

Think we nab him if he's there?

[allstar1579]

Think we nab him if he's there?

I'd like to say yes, but then again I was hoping he dropped one more pick last year and we would have taken him there. Really depends on how this next month goes for him, if he gets knocked around, I think we go another direction. He's a guy I'm happy with though.

[Stotle]

I don't think teams will be concerned with the numbers Scheppers puts up. They'll likely just be looking at his stuff. It's still on the cold side in St. Paul; he won't be expected to be at his best. Velo will likely be #1. If he has strength in his shoulder and is holding into the middle-innings, that should be all it takes.

[crawdad]

Yes I am very well aware of what the word "middle" means. I am also aware that aside from the first pick and the last pick, picks 2-9 would be the middle...smartass.

Yeah, JTrea's argument is untenable. Until someone writes that the Orioles are high on Ackley . . . you cannot just state it as fact. You can write:

It sounds like the Orioles really want him.

or

Churchill appeared to say that the Orioles are onto him.

Otherwise, you cannot state that they are for a fact.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, JTrea's argument is untenable. Until someone writes that the Orioles are high on Ackley . . . you cannot just state it as fact. You can write:

It sounds like the Orioles really want him.

or

Churchill appeared to say that the Orioles are onto him.

Otherwise, you cannot state that they are for a fact.

Yeah, we should know better than to argue with him by now...

[QBsILLEST1]

About what level of competition is the indy league that Schep and Crow are participating in? Would it be similar to A ball with a large range of competition, some being much worse than A and some being better?

[Stotle]

About what level of competition is the indy league that Schep and Crow are participating in? Would it be similar to A ball with a large range of competition, some being much worse than A and some being better?

I wouldn't worry about it -- scouts will be looking more at the stuff than the results.

[ChaosLex]

Here's an updated mock draft.

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - Former GM Jim Bowden came out and said the decision's already been made. Duh. Previously: #1.

2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina - I read an interesting comparison on PG this week of Ackley to Matt Wieters, where there was a little disappointment in the scouting community that the players didn't seem to hugely improve in college. However, they made the point that there wasn't really anywhere to go. Good point. Previously: #2.

3. San Diego - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - White's really a solid pitcher, but there's been three years now to read into his flaws. He might not have the best arm of the three available pitchers here, but his combination of stuff is probably the best. He doesn't come with the mechanical issues of Aaron Crow. Previously: #3.

4. Pittsburgh - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - Tate will be the first prep position player off the board, regardless of where he goes. Pittsburgh flashed some cash last year with Pedro Alvarez, and it will take a good amount to sign Tate. I have a feeling he's a top seven guy right now. Previously: #9.

5. Baltimore - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - The more I read about Gibson, the more I'm a little mystified as to why he isn't throwing harder. He's got the body for it, and if he was able to clean his mechanics up slightly, he'd have plus velocity with plus command. Someone will buy into that possible combo. Previously: #8.

6. San Francisco - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - I project Crow to go a spot after his former college teammate, and his spot could fluctuate a bit on his performance this month in Indy ball. He's been a lot quieter than Tanner Scheppers, but he doesn't have much to prove. Previoiusly: #5.

7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Yes, I think Wheeler stands a good chance of being the first prep pitcher taken. His pitch mix is that good, and he reminds me of a right-handed Tyler Matzek. However, he might be even more advanced with more potential than Matzek. There are multiple top ten teams reportedly very interested in him. Previously: #7.

8. Cincinnati - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Two years after a disaster of a prep pick in Devan Mesoraco, I think the Reds get back on the horse with Matzek. He's everything the Reds would want in a pitcher, and I think he's got the makeup to succeed in a hitter's park. Previously: #6.

9. Detroit - Grant Green, SS, USC - If someone's crazy enough to buy into Green's supposed top-tier talent, it's the Tigers. No offense Tiger fans. However, Green has done nothing but create question marks this year, and every scouting site has eventually admitted that he might even be as low as a second half first rounder. Ouch. Previously: #4.

10. Washington - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - Here's a new one for you. After three weeks of going with Rich Poythress in this spot, I think Jared Mitchell's hit enough to start meriting this placement, though he's not really a top ten guy. Athletic outfielders seemed to be well-liked by Washington, but who knows where their draft is headed past Strasburg. Previously: #23.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/4/864680/2009-amateur-draft-mock-4-round-one

They have Scheppers going to the Rockies at #11.

[QBsILLEST1]

How could they say White has no glitches compared to Crow. They both have glitches in their motions-Id rather have Crow, I like his raw stuff better. And u better bet Matzek is gone way before the 8th pick......

[allstar1579]

How could they say White has no glitches compared to Crow. They both have glitches in their motions-Id rather have Crow, I like his raw stuff better. And u better bet Matzek is gone way before the 8th pick......

I dunno, all still up in the air at this point. Like I've been saying for 2 months, you could have a solid mock right now that you are convinced is going to play out, and this month right here will turn it upside down. Aside from. no. 1, there are no locks this year.

[Stotle]

Here's an updated mock draft.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/4/864680/2009-amateur-draft-mock-4-round-one

They have Scheppers going to the Rockies at #11.

I like that this guy is well-read (clearly covers all the bases with scouting sites and rankings and his mock's are better than most I've seen -- much better). I leaves me wanting a bit, wondering how much is his ranking of talent and how much is slotting players to teams that make sense. Does he watch any of these guys? Is his valuation of the players weighing in at all? I also disagree with some of his reads, but that's to be expected in any mock.

Anyway, thanks for posting. Interesting read.

[Stotle]

How could they say White has no glitches compared to Crow. They both have glitches in their motions-Id rather have Crow, I like his raw stuff better. And u better bet Matzek is gone way before the 8th pick......

I really hope White is throwing in the BC series (which I believe will be their last before the ACC tourney). I have heard conflicting reports as to his arm action and his stuff this year.

Crow should be Crow -- killer stuff, refined and solid pitchability.

Matzek is my preference, but could I see seven guys going in front of him? I don't know:

Strasburg

Scheppers

Tate

Ackley

Crow

Maybe Green?

Maybe Gibson?

Maybe Miller?

Wheeler seems like a bit of a stretch, but I like his stuff and thought he looked pretty good last summer. Could happen.

I think he has Poythress too high and Scheppers too low (if he's really back up in the mid- to upper-90s with his fastball).

[Stotle]

I dunno, all still up in the air at this point. Like I've been saying for 2 months, you could have a solid mock right now that you are convinced is going to play out, and this month right here will turn it upside down. Aside from. no. 1, there are no locks this year.

I generally think mocks are fun, but unless you put the time in to research team draft strategies and even reach out to see who organizations are generally looking at, they aren't very useful. Fun to bat around ideas, but to be honest I'd rather just read sites that rank the prospects, which I think would be more useful. Of course, mocks are done by authors who are compiling rather than evaluating (which is fine) so I guess the value of the "rankings" would be a bit questionable, too.

Shrug...