Scheppers not going to Pirates

[section18]

You can't gamble with a top 10 pick much less a top 5 pick. I think Seattle will go with Crow because he could probably make their rotation in 2010 and he would be cheaper than going out and getting a ML free agent pitcher. Scheppers will not be in the top 5 in my opinion. Very good pitcher who will slip due to his injury.

[ChaosLex]

The Orioles have established one of the best groups of young players in the game. The rebuilding effort is not complete however, and I think the Orioles address pitching pretty heavily in this draft. All the high school pitchers are still on the board at this point, nabbing Matzek, Turner, Miller or Wheeler here certainly makes some sense. Baltimore has had good success getting high profile college players in the last couple of drafts, which may give Scheppers a slight leg up. If their medical staff gives Scheppers the green light, he would provide the type of high-upside, polished fireballer who could make an impact very soon. A Matusz/Scheppers one-two punch would give plenty of support to Baltimore's Jones/Markakis/Wieters offensive core.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/05/24/2009-mlb-mock-draft

[allstar1579]

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/05/24/2009-mlb-mock-draft

But it leaves the question, with Tillman/Arrieta/Matusz + all of the other fringe guys we have right now, do we really need to take a risk on a guy with injury questions because he could be here soon? With there being equally rated HS guys that would fit better to replace talent when we need it later as opposed to now.

Draft strategies are not easy. There are not many people we could select at 5 that I would have a real problem with personally, with the exception being Tate for me.

[QBsILLEST1]

Honestly, a HS pitcher IMO fits best for the system. But as we knows it riskier taking a HSer especially when your using your 1st round pick....If we do draft a college pitcher here, there is gonna be a major logjam issue coming up, not necessarily a bad thing, but also it wouldnt be a bad idea to have that HS arm come up in the next wave rather than now.

[Duke2010]

Honestly, a HS pitcher IMO fits best for the system. But as we knows it riskier taking a HSer especially when your using your 1st round pick....If we do draft a college pitcher here, there is gonna be a major logjam issue coming up, not necessarily a bad thing, but also it wouldnt be a bad idea to have that HS arm come up in the next wave rather than now.

I fully understand the concept of drafting a high school pitcher to start the next wave of guys coming up, but we don't know which of our prospects are going to succeed at the major league level. I'd be surprised if all of Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz become what we project them to be, so adding a guy like Scheppers (injury concern or not) would be beneficial as a very solid insurance policy.

[QBsILLEST1]

I fully understand the concept of drafting a high school pitcher to start the next wave of guys coming up, but we don't know which of our prospects are going to succeed at the major league level. I'd be surprised if all of Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz become what we project them to be, so adding a guy like Scheppers (injury concern or not) would be beneficial as a very solid insurance policy.

Oh I agree with you completely, Scheppers is a guy Ive been pushing for since he started pitching again in the indy league. It is probably best to go with a college arm, but it would just fit into our system better if we got a HS guy. I want either Crow or Scheppers for college arms and for HS arms either Matzek or Wheeler......

If Matzek is throwing 98 though, with his arsenal he'd have chance to be a Strasburg-like hands down consensus #1 pick in 3 years. You gotta think about it, his arsenal and pitching style and command is similar to what a crafty lefty may have, but if he also has a 98 MPH fastball to blow by you, which may gain more MPH since he is young still, I honestly dont see how you can pass on that.....

[allstar1579]

I fully understand the concept of drafting a high school pitcher to start the next wave of guys coming up, but we don't know which of our prospects are going to succeed at the major league level. I'd be surprised if all of Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz become what we project them to be, so adding a guy like Scheppers (injury concern or not) would be beneficial as a very solid insurance policy.

At what cost do you want insurance though? While there is nothing wrong with that strategy, you eventually want to build to the level that you don't have to constantly draft college arms to get them to the majors as soon as possible. Ideally you want to mix in high level HS arms in there too, which we are very thin on.

[Duke2010]

I like Scheppers a lot (if he proves to be healthy), and I like the fact that he could be an insurance policy if some of our other arms fail. Again, if he's healthy, and assuming he signs relatively quickly, I would think that he could help in Baltimore around August 2010. It's not all about him being a back up plan for one of the big 3 failing though. Right now, I'd rank Scheppers ahead of all the HS rams except for Matzek, and that's my reasoning for taking him...the added bonus is that he gives us another #2 type starter in the mix for next year if one of the big 3 falters.

Also, I'd look to target HS guys in the later rounds who are falling. I liked Jordan's approach last year of trying to sign Bundy, Martin, Brady, Landers, etc...and hopefully he can use that approach to develop some guys for our next wave. A guy like Ian Krol comes to mind...

[QBsILLEST1]

IMO, if we drafted Scheppers, his ceiling may be higher than any of the pitchers in our system not named Tillman and Erbe, and I would honestly rank them similarly even though Scheppers is older.(Not similar prospect status but similar ceiling) To me Scheppers if healthy and continues to develop will become the closest thing to a #1 that we will have w/o buying on the FA market.....To me this is the epitome of high risk/high reward.

[Big Mac]

Please stay away from Scheppers, you should be taking gambles like this on guys in later rounds, not with the 5th pick.

With all the other arms available without the injury history, it would be foolish to draft Scheppers, IMO.

[crawdad]

Please stay away from Scheppers, you should be taking gambels like this on guys in later rounds, not with the 5th pick.

With all the other arms available without the injury history, it would be foolish to draft Scheppers, IMO.

Would you prefer this gambel?

<IMG SRC="http://www.otterside.com/winter2008/quail_gambel%27s-1013.jpg">

[LookinUp]

IMO, if we drafted Scheppers, his ceiling may be higher than any of the pitchers in our system not named Tillman and Erbe, and I would honestly rank them similarly even though Scheppers is older.(Not similar prospect status but similar ceiling) To me Scheppers if healthy and continues to develop will become the closest thing to a #1 that we will have w/o buying on the FA market.....To me this is the epitome of high risk/high reward.

I think others are saying that Matzek is low/medium risk - high reward.