Motivation for apparent frugality?

[biggrthngibbons]

I am by no means an authority on the draft or amateur talent, however it appears that the Orioles have made a few "head scratcher" picks so far that appear to be influenced, at least somewhat, by signability.

This surprises me because, in recent years, this team has exhibited a willingness to spend a great deal of money on the draft, paying well above slot for premium talent (Wieters, Arietta, and even Oliver Drake come to mind).

I find it interesting that this new found sense of parsimony has coincided with the recent reports that the Orioles have shown interest in Miguel Angel Sano. Are we sandbagging a bit in the draft to make a major play on July 2nd?

Mods, if this is in the wrong place, or already has a thread dedicated to it, please move or delete. Just wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

[mdterpsrule]

I am by no means an authority on the draft or amateur talent, however it appears that the Orioles have made a few "head scratcher" picks so far that appear to be influenced, at least somewhat, by signability.

This surprises me because, in recent years, this team has exhibited a willingness to spend a great deal of money on the draft, paying well above slot for premium talent (Wieters, Arietta, and even Oliver Drake come to mind).

I find it interesting that this new found sense of parsimony has coincided with the recent reports that the Orioles have shown interest in Miguel Angel Sano. Are we sandbagging a bit in the draft to make a major play on July 2nd?

Mods, if this is in the wrong place, or already has a thread dedicated to it, please move or delete. Just wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

Well from what everyone has been saying, we will have to go above slot for our 9th and 10th rd picks. Also, people have mentioned the possibility of going after Sano.

But I don't think they are doing it based on signability, they are doing it based on who Jordan has listed on his draft board. Sure a few of our guys liked player A over B, but Jordan and his crew spent all year scouting these guys. I'll trust their judgment over most here (though I do love what Stotle, Allstar, Tony, etc do here and I respect their opinions over any non professional)

[McLovin]

I've read a few times that a lot of the HS'ers just have outlandish demands. There aren't 90 '1st round talents' out there, but the players and their advisers seem to think this is the case. A lot of players are rumored to be asking for a lot and threatening to just take the scholarship if they don't get paid.

I would say sign-ability in the context of the player is playing a big role. By that I mean that they may just be making sure they can get a player in at a price they feel is reasonable. That's not to say they won't go over slot, it's just a matter of feeling out the player first.

I don't think they are saving up for something.

[hoosiers]

I don't think we are being frugal.

I expect our total draft spend will be impressive, but we are spreading the $ around to more guys. Most of these second day guys were mentioned as possibly going earlier in their write-ups so they do not seem like reaches.

Signing a healthy Berry would be huge.

[biggrthngibbons]

Well from what everyone has been saying, we will have to go above slot for our 9th and 10th rd picks. Also, people have mentioned the possibility of going after Sano.

But I don't think they are doing it based on signability, they are doing it based on who Jordan has listed on his draft board. Sure a few of our guys liked player A over B, but Jordan and his crew spent all year scouting these guys. I'll trust their judgment over most here (though I do love what Stotle, Allstar, Tony, etc do here and I respect their opinions over any non professional)

I certainly trust Jordan's judgement, don't get me wrong, and while I have really warmed to the Hobgood pick, I just find it odd that with other pitchers rated ahead of him (almost unanimously I might add), economics may have had something to do with it.

It just seems that we have selected some under the radar guys so far who are, inherently, bound to be cheaper and easier to sign. While I genuinely like the draft we have put together, I think this may be a sign that our big day might come a few weeks from now.

Also, our 9th and 10th round picks apparently, will get above slot money, but the money we saved in the early rounds more than compensates for this.

As SG said in another thread, the Orioles have always seemed to miss out on the big name international signings. I have to think AM sees this as a problem and is looking to correct it.

[mdterpsrule]

I certainly trust Jordan's judgement, don't get me wrong, and while I have really warmed to the Hobgood pick, I just find it odd that with other pitchers rated ahead of him (almost unanimously I might add), economics may have had something to do with it.

It just seems that we have selected some under the radar guys so far who are, inherently, bound to be cheaper and easier to sign. While I genuinely like the draft we have put together, I think this may be a sign that our big day might come a few weeks from now.

Also, our 9th and 10th round picks apparently, will get above slot money, but the money we saved in the early rounds more than compensates for this.

As SG said in another thread, the Orioles have always seemed to miss out on the big name international signings. I have to think AM sees this as a problem and is looking to correct it.

I didn't mean to imply you didn't trust Jordan. From the looks of the site (after the initial reaction) it seems everyone seems to be saying In Jordan We Trust (IJWT) even if they don't agree with the pick.

I've said in another thread that if you have two prospects rated near equal, and one is considered a cheaper and easier sign, I have no problem taking that one. And if we do get Sano, that would be almost like having two first round picks this year and would do wonders for our program all around.

[biggrthngibbons]

I would say sign-ability in the context of the player is playing a big role. By that I mean that they may just be making sure they can get a player in at a price they feel is reasonable. That's not to say they won't go over slot, it's just a matter of feeling out the player first.

I don't think they are saving up for something.

This is a very good point, because HS players generally do have quite a bit of leverage because of their age and the option to go to college.

While they may not be saving up for anything, there are a few things that indicate that they may be:

1. Signable draft picks- for one reason or another the Orioles have selected a few guys that came as a surprise given the other available players on the board.

2. Recent draft history- We have shown a willingness to spend heavily on the draft in the past.

3. Recent reports suggesting we are interested in Sano

This might be smoke indicating a fire, or it may just be something I'm imagining. I admit the correlations aren't incredibly strong, but it may be something to think about.

I think what will be most telling is the total amount we end up spending on this years draft in comparison to the previous two years, although this figure may not be the best indicator, given the fact that this years draft appears to be a bit light on talent.

[biggrthngibbons]

I didn't mean to imply you didn't trust Jordan. From the looks of the site (after the initial reaction) it seems everyone seems to be saying In Jordan We Trust (IJWT) even if they don't agree with the pick.

I've said in another thread that if you have two prospects rated near equal, and one is considered a cheaper and easier sign, I have no problem taking that one. And if we do get Sano, that would be almost like having two first round picks this year and would do wonders for our program all around.

Agreed all around... now I still see us as a longshot for Sano, but the picks thusfar have been interesting to say the least.

[glenn__davis]

I have no idea if they're intentionally trying to spend less money, or if they just liked the guys they took at those spots that much, but...

I would have no problem at all if they did decide to scale back spending somewhat on the domestic draft in order to be able to spend more on the international players and get some more presence down there. Not necessarily Sano, just in general.

[JTrea81]

I have no idea if they're intentionally trying to spend less money, or if they just liked the guys they took at those spots that much, but...

I would have no problem at all if they did decide to scale back spending somewhat on the domestic draft in order to be able to spend more on the international players and get some more presence down there. Not necessarily Sano, just in general.

We shouldn't scale back anything. If anything with the money we've saved on payroll this year, we should have increased our budget for both.

We should be spending $10 million+ on this draft and that same amount on amateur international talent. We've got it.

The Orioles can't justify MASN if they aren't going to spend the money to improve the ballclub. Where is all that money going? MacPhail is running this team with a budget of a small market team, yet he has the resources of a mid-large market.

This is going to be the least amount that we've spent on the draft since 2005, Jordan's first draft, less than $5 million. There is no excuse for that.

[DrungoHazewood]

There is no excuse for that.

No excuse readily apparent to an outsider without access to the O's financial books, scouting and analysis, international free agent roadmap, and future trade and free agent targets.

You keep repeating over and over that the O's should spend like a large market team, but they're 23rd in the league in attendance, and reside in the 26th-largest media market in the country (behind Sacramento, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Portland, and Pittsburgh).

[biggrthngibbons]

We shouldn't scale back anything. If anything with the money we've saved on payroll this year, we should have increased our budget for both.

We should be spending $10 million+ on this draft and that same amount on amateur international talent. We've got it.

QUOTE]

I don't think frugality, in this case, is necessarily a bad thing. This is a pretty thin draft, and our resources aren't unlimited. While it is true that we have MASN raking in some extra cash, our attendance is down 20% this year. There's a good chance we might need a bit of a rainy day fund with the current state of the economy so we don't get into a bind down the road. Who knows, if the price of free agents continues to drop, and we have stockpiled some cash, we may be big players for premium talent in say, 2011, which coincidentally appears to be around the time we begin to seriously compete as well as a very talented potential free agent class.

I think the Orioles have their reasons for their thriftiness, and given the current conditions, you can't blame them for being pennywise. Just because we may have the money, doesn't make it a good idea to spend all of it. If we are indeed, diverting funds away from an undertalented draft class and spending them on very talented international players, this cannot be considered a negative.

[biggrthngibbons]

No excuse readily apparent to an outsider without access to the O's financial books, scouting and analysis, international free agent roadmap, and future trade and free agent targets.

You keep repeating over and over that the O's should spend like a large market team, but they're 23rd in the league in attendance, and reside in the 26th-largest media market in the country (behind Sacramento, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Portland, and Pittsburgh).

+1... letters

[Stotle]

No excuse readily apparent to an outsider without access to the O's financial books, scouting and analysis, international free agent roadmap, and future trade and free agent targets.

You keep repeating over and over that the O's should spend like a large market team, but they're 23rd in the league in attendance, and reside in the 26th-largest media market in the country (behind Sacramento, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Portland, and Pittsburgh).

I think this is absolutely correct. However, if Oakland finds enough money to sign Grant Green, Stassi, Krol and Dyson (unlikely, I know) then I will have questions.

I don't think they pony-up for Dyson, but the other three seem like possible signings based on the commitments of the players.

[hoosiers]

This is going to be the least amount that we've spent on the draft since 2005, Jordan's first draft, less than $5 million. There is no excuse for that.

You should let the dust settle before we add up these $.

We have the same picks in each round and we spent about $1M above slot outside the fifth round last year.

I'm just throwing out a number, but Hobgood might receive $750k - $1M less than Matusz. We'll see if Jordan is able to make this up over the balance (or more!) of the picks. My expectation is that he will make up a good chunk of it if not all of it.