O's Getting Serious About Sano?

[snatch311]

That's part of my point. There are never any guarantees. But there are guys like Wieters, Strasburg, (Griffey, etc etc) that are as close to "locks" as they come as prospects.

The biggest difference is that you're talking about a 16-year-old kid (if he is, in fact, only 16... sorry to be speculative) who isn't even close to being physically mature yet and giving him a multi-million dollar check when he probably won't even get to the majors for another 5+ years.

Boras gets money out of his guys because he manipulates the market and demands the money his players get. If everyone ignored Boras, which would never happen, he'd lose some leverage.

If it takes Sano 5+ years to make the majors, then chances are the team that signed him overestimated him.

[BaltimoreTerp]

If it takes Sano 5+ years to make the majors, then chances are the team that signed him overestimated him.

So if he makes the majors as a top offensive shortstop prospect at age 23, there was some kind of failure by the team signing him?

[Sanfran327]

If it takes Sano 5+ years to make the majors, then chances are the team that signed him overestimated him.

So if he makes the majors as a top offensive shortstop prospect at age 23, there was some kind of failure by the team signing him?

I was going to say... if he's 16 now, and it takes him even five years on the button, that's 21, which, last time I checked, is pretty damn young for a MLB starter. So is 23, frankly, which is seven years.

I don't think some people understand how raw Sano is right now. He's a project. Whether it works out or not is a separate issue. Basically, he's a multi-million dollar lotto ticket.

[liquid0623]

Teams think that it will take him around 3 years to make the Majors. He is that special and his bat is that advanced. Manny was a first around draft pick from the Bronx. Again, this is coming from teams and not from me - his agent.

Rob

[liquid0623]

If there are teams out there saying he's the best prospect they have ever seen and others saying his bat is right behind Miguel Cabrera was at 16, but that he has more tools... How much is that kid worth at 16? If his projected numbers in his prime are .320 - 40 homers? Even if he has to move off of shortstop later. He is only 190lbs now, very lean. Has a 75 arm with a future 80. He's running sub 6.6. sixties. Has had a bone graft to verify age, blood tests to determine he's not using steroids and has had a DNA test to verify that his parents are indeed his parents. What more do you want out of a kid?

[Arthur_Bryant]

I'm not 100% sure that gambling your way out of the cellar is the way to go, but sometimes you have to take risks to turn things around. I think AM is too conservative to write this kid a check.

"Gambling their way out"? Hardly. They are trying to do it with good trades and overall improvements to the player development system. That's the way they've been doing it for almost two years, since AM took over.

But it's like investing. If you've got all your other bases covered, there's no problem with writing an occasional check for a high-risk, high-reward venture. In fact, that's how the smart guys do it.

I agree that AM is conservative in his approach, which is why I find the "gambling your way out of the cellar" comment somewhat odd. However, he is no dummy, and he seems to put a lot of value in his scouts and player development guys. If they tell him that they've got a once-in-a-decade prospect, he'll recognize the opportunity.

The circumstances of the workouts suggests that this is what happened. One week after a one-day workout, they set up an extraordinary three-day command performance for the director of foreign scouting and the director of player development. The original scouting reports must've been off the charts for that to happen, and it sounds as if they're getting ready to make a big commitment, but first they want to see for themselves before putting their reps on the line.

[liquid0623]

You are claiming to be his agent, Rob Plummer?

I am his agent. I used to go to O's games in Memorial Stadium as a kid. I grew up in Phila. I just think this kid is such a good prospect and kid that I am trying to get what he is worth. I have been told by more than one team that he is the best kid they have seen in Latin America over the past 20 years.

[liquid0623]

The more studs you have the bigger chance you have of some of them becoming stars. Not every big time prospect makes it, but big time hitting prospects have a much bigger hit rate. Look at what Tampa has done. Baldelli didn't make it b/c of his physical ailment not b/c of his lack of talent. Sano is in the class of a true stud prospect.

[Lucky Jim]

Hah. It's a rainy day in NYC. This makes for great pot-stirring.

[Sanfran327]

"Gambling their way out"? Hardly. They are trying to do it with good trades and overall improvements to the player development system. That's the way they've been doing it for almost two years, since AM took over.

But it's like investing. If you've got all your other bases covered, there's no problem with writing an occasional check for a high-risk, high-reward venture. In fact, that's how the smart guys do it.

I agree that AM is conservative in his approach, which is why I find the "gambling your way out of the cellar" comment somewhat odd. However, he is no dummy, and he seems to put a lot of value in his scouts and player development guys. If they tell him that they've got a once-in-a-decade prospect, he'll recognize the opportunity.

The circumstances of the workouts suggests that this is what happened. One week after a one-day workout, they set up an extraordinary three-day command performance for the director of foreign scouting and the director of player development. The original scouting reports must've been off the charts for that to happen, and it sounds as if they're getting ready to make a big commitment, but first they want to see for themselves before putting their reps on the line.

We don't have all of our bases covered. Our system still has tons of holes in it in regards to position players. We don't have a lot of depth outside of the outfield, and a guy like Sano, no matter how talented he is at 16, is a huge risk if you're going to rely on him to be part of your future. So yes, for the Orioles to sign Sano, it would be a gamble.

Listen, I'd love to sign him. He sounds like an enormous talent. We need guys like him in our system for sure. Moreso, if AM agrees to a deal with "you guys," then I'd feel extra good about it knowing his conservative approach. He's willing to make an investment if he's confident it'll pay off.

[glenn__davis]

Cue the vetting process!

[liquid0623]

Pretty cool. You've represented a bunch of prospects down in the Dominican before this, right? So, how serious do you think the O's are about Sano?

How many teams do you consider to be seriously in the running?

I can't really comment on the teams, but the only other guy I've had with a quick, short swing was Willy Aybar. but he's only like 5'11 and doesn't have the other tools that Sano has. Sano could have 80 power, 80 arm and 65-70 hitting ability. He's a plus runner now and will slow down in his prime when he carries 225lbs like ARod.

Joel Guzman had a long swing with holes low and away and inside. Joel also got up to 252lbs and was 6'6 not 6'3. There is no comparing Sano's bat with Joel's.

Kelvin DeLeon signed with the Yankees two years ago, but pulled his left foot out sometimes. he also didn't have the consistent contact with the ball esp in games. His other tools were not as good and his swing was not as compact either.

Sano makes incredible impact with a baseball. His swing is a thing of beauty and he repeats it every time. He looks good in every tryout unless he's tired b/c he has had so many. I have really tried to limit his tryouts this month.

He's not only the best player I have ever negotiated their initial bonus, but the best kid I have ever seen before he signed. I never saw Cabrera before he signed and Hanley did not have an agent and that was like 8 years ago. Things have changed since then. I am only talking about Latin American signings.

[liquid0623]

Hah. It's a rainy day in NYC. This makes for great pot-stirring.

Yes it is a rainy day in NYC

[KurtCDavidson]

Wow. Reading between the lines - I feel like the fact that Rob is even here indicates that there is serious interest from the O's.

I like the idea of signing Sano more than ever now!

[KurtCDavidson]

Rob, have you ever negotiated with the O's before?

Are they making a serious commitment down there?