How can you guys not be talking more about Sano?

[JTrea81]

Miguel Sano.....another baby-faced 16 yr old Dominican SS wiz who will suddenly become 22 years old a few months after he signs.

He's had a bone scan to prove his age. That shouldn't be a problem. His agent has the verification to prove his age.

[Lucky Jim]

This is a good opportunity. Sano is one of the best Dominican prospects in the last 20 years supposedly. This is when you go "all in," because opportunites to sign players like Sano don't come around that often. From all accounts he is a special player and worth the financial risk and investment it will take to sign him.

You really don't understand what I'm saying. That's fine. But I think I've finally had my fill of this.

[BringBackMagic]

Would you rather see money spent to improve the Orioles then to go to Peter Angelos and his partners? If we don't spend it on the ballclub, that's where that revenue goes.

Let me ask you, why do you want to see the Orioles save money? What do you think they are going to spend the saved money on?

You can say this, but unless you own a professional sports franchise, you don't understand. I don't understand it either.

Of course I'd rather them spend every cent in the coffers on players to put the best product on the field. But you have to remember that the team can only spend money equivalent to revenue brought in. This is where you will insert your argument about MASN, but we don't know how much money they are getting from that.

As my last post on this ridiculous thread. I want Sano. I want Sano in our system, I'd love to see him develop into the superstar he is projected to be as a 16 year old that practices on a sandlot without any legit competition.

Moreover, I'd love to see Sano in the Orioles system for a reasonable price.

I do NOT want to see Sano sign for $6 mil, go to the DSL this year, then the GCL next season and then bottom out, never get past Bluefield and while all of you rail against the Orioles giving Jay Payton $5 mil... he provided a LOT more for the franchise in his time with the Birds than Sano will if he never gets out of the minors.

[JTrea81]

I do NOT want to see Sano sign for $6 mil, go to the DSL this year, then the GCL next season and then bottom out, never get past Bluefield and while all of you rail against the Orioles giving Jay Payton $5 mil... he provided a LOT more for the franchise in his time with the Birds than Sano will if he never gets out of the minors.

But Payton never had the potential of giving the production that Sano could possibly provide. You have to take some risks to acquire talent otherwise you will wind up with lots of good players and miss out on those guys that turn into superstars and can single handedly win games for your team. $6 million is a small price to play for a player that could be worth $100 million plus in the future. As opposed to paying $5 million to a player that is worth only $1-2 million at most.

[Lucky Jim]

But Payton never had the potential of giving the production that Sano could possibly provide. You have to take some risks to acquire talent otherwise you will wind up with lots of good players and miss out on those guys that turn into superstars and can single handedly win games for your team. $6 million is a small price to play for a player that could be worth $100 million plus in the future. As opposed to paying $5 million to a player that is worth only $1-2 million at most.

Payton was worth $5m last year by objective (i.e., not in JTrea's mind) metrics.

[JTrea81]

Payton was worth $5m last year by objective (i.e., not in JTrea's mind) metrics.

Fine, let me rephrase:

$6 million is a small price to play for a player that could be worth $100 million plus in the future. As opposed to paying $9.5 million to a player that is worth only $3.2 million total at most. Is that better?

[Guest rochester]

Would you rather see money spent to improve the Orioles then to go to Peter Angelos and his partners? If we don't spend it on the ballclub, that's where that revenue goes.

Let me ask you, why do you want to see the Orioles save money? What do you think they are going to spend the saved money on?

JTrea: I usually stay out of it because you get bashed too much, and sometimes without merit - not sure if you are just being provocative or....

Anyway, the above statement is (IMO) just plain wrong. I have researched the business side (P/L) for the O's in the past (others are most likely more up-to-date) and find it highly doubtful that PA and his partners are lining their coffers with loads of cash from this venture. Yes, MASN helps but in this economy? Plus, PA does not need to grab $$ from the O's. His well-diversified portfolio should be enough, although his real estate and investment holdings have taken a huge hit recently I assume...

PA may not be a great manager but he is extremely competitive - I too wanted Tex but don't believe for a second that he did not know Tex did not want to be here unless we were just plain foolish, and then only maybe.

[Lucky Jim]

Fine, let me rephrase:

$6 million is a small price to play for a player that could be worth $100 million plus in the future. As opposed to paying $9.5 million to a player that is worth only $3.2 million total at most. Is that better?

Yes. It is better.

Now the question is: what is the probability of Sano being worth $100m?

The next question is: when will a similar player be available?

The next question is: is the juice worth the squeeze?

A scratch-and-win lotto ticket might be worth $32,000. How much would you pay for it?

[SrMeowMeow]

...and 6M is a high price to pay for a player that could be worth $0 in the future. You have to look at both sides, not just what you want to see.

[JTrea81]

...and 6M is a high price to pay for a player that could be worth $0 in the future. You have to look at both sides, not just what you want to see.

I'd rather spend $6 million dollars on a player that may be worth $100 million, than $9.5 million dollars on a player that has the potential of being worth only that $9.5 million or less. The reward outweighs the risk in Sano's case IMO.

[Lucky Jim]

I'd rather spend $6 million dollars on a player that may be worth $100 million, than $9.5 million dollars on a player that has the potential of being worth only that $9.5 million or less.

See: scratch-and-win.

[JTrea81]

Yes. It is better.

Now the question is: what is the probability of Sano being worth $100m?

The next question is: when will a similar player be available?

The next question is: is the juice worth the squeeze?

A scratch-and-win lotto ticket might be worth $32,000. How much would you pay for it?

All depends on the odds. I think Sano has better odds of becoming a 100 million dollar player than a Jay Payton type so I spend the money on Sano. I have better odds of getting similar Payton like production out of a cheaper player.

To his credit, MacPhail has been able to find guys like Montanez and Salazar that do just that so we can spend that money on Sano. Now we just have to do it.

[SrMeowMeow]

All depends on the odds. I think Sano has better odds of becoming a 100 million dollar player than a Jay Payton type so I spend the money on Sano.

And you are objectively unqualified to make that appraisal. Do you agree?

Also, that's completely not the argument. Like, entirely not the argument at all. Try again (or don't).

[JTrea81]

And you are objectively unqualified to make that appraisal. Do you agree?

Nobody on this message board is. But we all can have opinions.

[Lucky Jim]

All depends on the odds. I think Sano has better odds of becoming a 100 million dollar player than a Jay Payton type so I spend the money on Sano. I have better odds of getting similar Payton like production out of a cheaper player.

I'm not talking about Payton. It wasn't a good contract. No matter what BigBird says.

I'm asking what the odds need to be to make a possible $100m ceiling worth $8m for a 16 year old.

I guess the obvious answer is something like 1:12.5. Or: an 8% chance.

But what if you can get that 8% chance for much cheaper?