How can you guys not be talking more about Sano?

[Moose Milligan]

See, this is where we differ - I do think the point should be set in stone before negotiations begin, because that way you don't get caught up in the irrationality of other folks bidding. In other words, you can determine everything beforehand, valuation-wise, and then say "we're willing to up this 10% if it looks like it's necessary to win."

I think you need to take a serious look at present and prospective value and set what you think someone is worth. If it looks like you can win the bid within that range, you may bump up a bit to pull it off.

But the minute the bidding surpasses what you've estimated Sano is worth to you, you pack up and head out.

I see where you're coming from and agree a little bit, but let's not forget that a million or two isn't much to this franchise in the long run.

Of course they should look hard and come up with a present value for what they think he's worth but I don't think they should be afraid to go higher for him. I mean obviously there's a point where the money would be too much but I think that area is pretty gray.

I also don't think the bidding would be irrational. These aren't drunk guys at the blackjack table.

But I do see where you are coming from and agree. I think there's definitely a walkaway point, I just think you find that point in the midst of bidding and negotiations while you seem to think that point needs to be determined beforehand.

For the record I'm not saying we should let him write his own check.

[Mackus]

I see where you're coming from and agree a little bit, but let's not forget that a million or two isn't much to this franchise in the long run.

What it entirely depends on, IMO, is if that is a million or two that they could and would spend elsewhere, or if it is some sort of additional discretionary budget, that only comes out in extraordinary situations.

The money they offered to Tex was that type of money. They weren't going to spend $20M a year on the best FA they could get, they were only willing to give him that money. In those cases, I usually want the team to open the purse strings and spend that money.

But when its a case of say, the draft, I don't mind them spending less on one pick if they are planning on using that money on other picks later.

[JTrea81]

You need to clarify your opinions better like I said earlier. If you're going to speak in absolutes, you need to have evidence to back it up. Instead of saying "I have no doubt..." say something like "I think" or "MacPhail might..."

I think your second statement about risk is a bit flawed. You say he refuses to spend money on guys who are high risk. Well, premium talent isn't perceived as high risk compared to the guys who aren't premium talent.

For another example, you wanted Smoak last year because you love you some slugging first basemen. Smoak was probably the less riskier pick than Matusz, since Matusz is a pitcher and could develop arm problems and never make the majors, (knock on wood).

Similar to this year, you were all about Matzek and we went with Hobgood. Matzek, as we all know by now, was ranked higher by practically every publication...yet MacPhail and Jordan went with a risk and picked Hobgood, perceived as a riskier pick.

Giving a 16 year old a few million is a risk any way you cut it, I'll agree to that. But if this kid is the real deal the risk with him isn't as large as someone like Stassi, Krol or Malm who weren't even sure bets to sign with the team that drafted them.

MacPhail takes risks, its just not the risks you'd like him to take.

Any time you commit money to a player it is a risk. It is a financial risk. HS pitchers are risky. If Matzek blows out his arm, that's $7 million down the drain. If Hobgood blows out his arm that's less than $2.5 million down the drain. Now granted, I think both have about the same odds of a career ending injury, but the player you've invested the most money on poses the greatest financial risk. But Matzek was arguably the most talented pitcher, and at some point, you need to take a greater financial risk to acquire talent.

I understand we need to balance risk/reward, but I believe the Orioles have the financial resources to take some risks that they just don't want to seem to take to get the most talented players on their ballclub.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

From my point of view, I do not mind dishing out 5 million maybe 6 million if possible for this kid. Look at our salary history, look who we have spent over 4 million on the past 3 years. here's a list

2006

Javy Lopez 9,000,000

Kris Benson 8,333,333

Russ Ortiz 7,875,000

LaTroy Hawkins 4,400,000

Jay Gibbons 4,200,000

Ramon Hernandez 4,000,000

2007:

Jaret Wright 7,000,000

Ramon Hernandez 6,500,000

Danys Baez 5,666,667

Jay Gibbons 5,000,000

Jay Payton 4,500,000

Corey Patterson 4,300,000

2008:

Ramon Hernandez 7,500,000

Jay Payton 5,000,000

Jamie Walker 4,500,000

baseball cube provided salaries

We have cut down on the bad signings which is great. We have the money to spend on the guy, and we should. Grow the arms and buy the bats. Time to buy a bat.

[PitchingWins]

Any time you commit money to a player it is a risk. It is a financial risk. HS pitchers are risky. If Matzek blows out his arm, that's $7 million down the drain. If Hobgood blows out his arm that's less than $2.5 million down the drain. Now granted, I think both have about the same odds of a career ending injury, but the player you've invested the most money on poses the greatest financial risk. But Matzek was arguably the most talented pitcher, and at some point, you need to take a greater financial risk to acquire talent.

I understand we need to balance risk/reward, but I believe the Orioles have the financial resources to take some risks that they just don't want to seem to take to get the most talented players on their ballclub.

I'm not sure, as I am not part of the innards of the Orioles. I think though, we may have drafted a HS pitcher because we (as in the Orioles) feel we may have a set rotation for years down the road, and are preparing now for the departure of one of the big 3, and when that happens, we can restock with Hobgood, and future picks, if all of the big 3 turn out to be what we hope, I doubt we have the money to keep all of them. Thus, we will need to be able to restock, and don't want to wait another 11 years to do so.

At least that is what I am hoping

[Lucky Jim]

From my point of view, I do not mind dishing out 5 million maybe 6 million if possible for this kid. Look at our salary history, look who we have spent over 4 million on the past 3 years. here's a list

2006

Javy Lopez 9,000,000

Kris Benson 8,333,333

Russ Ortiz 7,875,000

LaTroy Hawkins 4,400,000

Jay Gibbons 4,200,000

Ramon Hernandez 4,000,000

2007:

Jaret Wright 7,000,000

Ramon Hernandez 6,500,000

Danys Baez 5,666,667

Jay Gibbons 5,000,000

Jay Payton 4,500,000

Corey Patterson 4,300,000

2008:

Ramon Hernandez 7,500,000

Jay Payton 5,000,000

Jamie Walker 4,500,000

baseballcube

We have cut down on the bad signings which is great. We have the money to spend on the guy, and we should. Grow the arms and buy the bats. Time to buy a bat.

For, like, the 80th time, poorly spent money in the past doesn't warrant spending now.

And "buying bats" means FA. How are we not growing this bat if he enters our system at 16?

We're growing AND buying.

AM was talking about FA acquisitions w/ that phrase.

[Khaezh12]

And "buying bats" means FA.

Well, technically he is a FA.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, technically he is a FA.

I'm just stepping all over myself!

[oriolefan1035]

I'm not sure, as I am not part of the innards of the Orioles. I think though, we may have drafted a HS pitcher because we (as in the Orioles) feel we may have a set rotation for years down the road, and are preparing now for the departure of one of the big 3, and when that happens, we can restock with Hobgood, and future picks, if all of the big 3 turn out to be what we hope, I doubt we have the money to keep all of them. Thus, we will need to be able to restock, and don't want to wait another 11 years to do so.

At least that is what I am hoping

Why? As your screen name indicates, pitching wins championships. Nick, AJ, Wieters, Reimold, BRob, and maybe Snyder and Scott make a very solid core lineup to work around going forward. If the big 3 all pan out, we want them anchoring the rotation, not trading them away for another bat. I can't think of a good reason to trade our young pitchers away now. We don't need stud hitters all the way around the diamond - with the guys we already have, all we need is adaquate fill-ins from FA to play 3B and SS.

[Moose Milligan]

Any time you commit money to a player it is a risk. It is a financial risk. HS pitchers are risky. If Matzek blows out his arm, that's $7 million down the drain. If Hobgood blows out his arm that's less than $2.5 million down the drain. Now granted, I think both have about the same odds of a career ending injury, but the player you've invested the most money on poses the greatest financial risk. But Matzek was arguably the most talented pitcher, and at some point, you need to take a greater financial risk to acquire talent.

I understand we need to balance risk/reward, but I believe the Orioles have the financial resources to take some risks that they just don't want to seem to take to get the most talented players on their ballclub.

Not to derail this thing into a Hobgood/Matzek debate, but do you think Matzek is THAT much better that he's worth 4.5 million more?

And you're right, there's a risk anytime you commit money to a player, yet some players are a higher risk and some aren't, but that doesn't mean the most money you dish out is automatically the greatest financial risk.

Look at your boy Tex, while dishing out a lot of money there's a small, small risk there that he gets hurt. He's been fairly durable over his career.

[JTrea81]

Not to derail this thing into a Hobgood/Matzek debate, but do you think Matzek is THAT much better that he's worth 4.5 million more?

If the Orioles will actually use that $4.5 million to improve the club elsewhere, such as Sano, I can live with not spending that money.

It's if they don't spend that money anywhere else and had the opportunity to take the best prep pitcher talent wise, that I have a problem with as anybody else would and should. And I guess I'm just assuming that is what is going to happen based on MacPhail's MO with the Orioles thus far.

I don't think people understand that I want MacPhail to prove me wrong as signing Sano would be a departure from the norm with him and I really hope he does.

[Moose Milligan]

If the Orioles will actually use that $4.5 million to improve the club elsewhere, such as Sano, I can live with not spending that money.

It's if they don't spend that money anywhere else and had the opportunity to take the best prep pitcher talent wise, that I have a problem with as anybody else would and should. And I guess I'm just assuming that is what is going to happen based on MacPhail's MO with the Orioles thus far.

I don't think people understand that I want MacPhail to prove me wrong as signing Sano would be a departure from the norm with him and I really hope he does.

Well I'm sure at the top of MacPhail's priority list is to prove you wrong.

There's nothing wrong with saving money in these financial times that we're in. I don't see why thats so hard for you to understand.

[Skywalker76]

I hope nobody is getting his hope up that we actually will sign Sano. Let's be honest the chance that the Orioles land him are very very slim, just like with Tex in the offseason.

[JTrea81]

Well I'm sure at the top of MacPhail's priority list is to prove you wrong.

There's nothing wrong with saving money in these financial times that we're in. I don't see why thats so hard for you to understand.

Moose you've got to look at the money this club takes in. First of all despite the declining attendance, this club is still making a profit. And then you add the revenue sharing on top of that, and the TV revenue and merchandising revenue that is split between the clubs (about $30 million in 2005). And MASN profits aren't added to that yet.

We were about to give 140 million to Teixeira in that down economy and I would find it hard to believe that we wouldn't extend Roberts and Markakis as well had Tex wanted to play here. We've got money to spend. And if MacPhail wants to "buy the bats" an amateur FA with a low cost compared to a Teixeira and a very high reward is a great opportunity to do just that.

If we can't get the established MLB superstars to come here, we should at least try to get the players that have future superstar potential when we are able to do so.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm not sure, as I am not part of the innards of the Orioles. I think though, we may have drafted a HS pitcher because we (as in the Orioles) feel we may have a set rotation for years down the road, and are preparing now for the departure of one of the big 3, and when that happens, we can restock with Hobgood, and future picks, if all of the big 3 turn out to be what we hope, I doubt we have the money to keep all of them. Thus, we will need to be able to restock, and don't want to wait another 11 years to do so.

At least that is what I am hoping

IMO we drafted a HS arm because they offered the best value in the 2009 draft to us. You can draft an HS kid #5 overall before he goes to college and becomes a consensus #1 overall pick. Though at the same time you are taking the risk that you can draft him at #5 overall in HS but doesnt do so well against better competeition and turns into a 4th rounder once hes a JR in college.

We took an HS arm because the JJ believes that Hobgood will be better than any of the college arms that were available to us once Hobgood is closer to fully baked.