Anyone still want to make a compelling argument against rebuilding?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. But so what? If Knott would have performed just as well, how does that help us? I agree they didn't spend their money wisely here, but again I can't see another option that was available that would have made a big difference. The next option for LF that is a long term solution is Reimold. From what I've read, Knott isn't capable to playing LF for a major league team every day. I do think he provides value in a part time role though.

It goes back to strategy. They spent $9M for two years of a player who should have cost $700k. They need to conserve resources to spend on other holes, but they make choices to waste $millions a year for no good reason. As long as they keep Baezes and Paytons I don't ever want to hear that they couldn't afford a premier free agent.

[Sports Guy]

Here are some stats about our offense...I know, stats are dirty meaningless things but let's look at them anyway:

Total VORP for these players(-10...Below replacement level):

Gibbons

Bako

Payton

Hernandez

Hernandez

Gomez

Bynum

Fahey

Redman

Castillo

Total ab's: 1492....30% of our team ab's(not including pitchers)

Does that look good?

AL ranks:

Runs scored: 11th

OPS: 8th

OBP: 7th

Slugging: 10th

homers: 11th

doubles: 7th

BA: 6th

Does this look like an offense that can compete?

[DrungoHazewood]

Does this look like an offense that can compete?

With great pitching, sure. But they're currently about six or eight pitchers short of great.

[Sports Guy]

With great pitching, sure. But they're currently about six or eight pitchers short of great.

Ok..So again, if we have the best pitching in the AL, we may be able to compete.

Plus, one thing being overlooked is the team defense....That is playing above expectations right now...Will that last into next year?

[RShack]

Here are some stats about our offense...I know, stats are dirty meaningless things but let's look at them anyway:

[stuff deleted]

Does this look like an offense that can compete?

Who are you arguing with? Some non-existent mythical person who says our offense is great?

You wouldn't pull some stunt like, for example, taking the words of somebody who pointed out the fact that a decent BP would have us somewhere near the WC, and twisting that into them somehow claiming that the O's offense is gangbusters... would you?

[eddie83]

Ok, so if we basically lead the league in pitching, we can maybe compete with our offense....Boy, i feel a lot better now! :rolleyes The difference is Sexson has been pretty good recently, is in a great pitchers park, is still hitting homers and could represent draft picks for us....He is also only here for one year and i have never said we should give up much for Sexson by himself...But don't let that stop you.

A draft pick is worth $14 million next year for a 1 year rental of Sexson? A rebuilding team trades for a 1 year rental? People complain about the awful contracts we give to guys and then want us to take on someone's else's bad deal. Why not keep Millar and use the money you would of paid to Sexson elsewhere. Seattle would have to pick up alot of his contract to even remotely look at adding him.

[Fan4Life]

I'm not arguing that this is a great strategy. It isn't. They absolutely overspent for Payton.

Do you think the 4.6 mil they spent on Payton this year would be banked and used in next year's budget if it wasn't used this year? I don't, but I agree it is up for debate. If you do think so, then your point is completely right. I happen to think it is more of a zero sum payroll for each year. When I was managing engineers, I didn't get to spend an extra 100K next year, but I didn't use 100K of salary budget this year.

If you think the 4.6 mil they will spend on Payton next year is restricting them from going after other guys for next year, than you're right. I don't think it will.

Again, I'm not defending the strategy. It isn't what I would do. I just don't think the Payton is that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. The Bako signing was irrelevant in any scheme. The contract to Baez was a bad use of money and a pretty big deal though.

I agree that they better not use budget as a constraint in their moves this offseason. If they do, I'll be livid.

Where do you draw the line between contraints and just not wanting to pay an $8 million/yr player, $14 million?

[eddie83]

With great pitching, sure. But they're currently about six or eight pitchers short of great.

Try 3 or 4 pitchers. People want prospects for our veterans and we have a kid in Loewen who is very talented and make a huge difference next year. Another quality starter and a reliable set-up man and closer would help dramatically. Good teams don't have to worry about their last guys out of the pen because if the guys in front of them are doing the job they are not pitching in big spots. I am not saying we will add those 3-4 pitchers for one and we need offense regardless. Bradford and Walker with 2 other quality arms in the pen doesn't look so bad. Another solid starter, Loewen to go with Bedard and Guthrie isn't a bad top 3. Now I have no idea how a guy like Loewen will pan out but we also have no idea how any prospects we aquire will down the road will either. The pitching depth is built to win soon.

[clapdiddy]

The next option for LF that is a long term solution is Reimold.

Well, I don't think we agree about the direction this team should try to go in, but I think this is one thing we do agree on!

[NewMarketSean]

This may be the most comical thing I've read on this board in years. You are the epitome of results oriented analysis. You do it all the time.

In this argument you are looking at results. You are saying that Payton and Bako are a small part of the problem because they would only mean a 5 win difference - RESULTS. I am saying that because of the fact that the O's even signed Payton and Bako proves that there is a problem - APPROACH.

On the other hand, I think I take a very process oriented approach. I think if you follow an intelligent, well defined process, you will eventually succeed. I'm not a huge fan of the Orioles' process, but I do think it has gotten much, much better than it was over the last 4 years.

It's gotten better, only because it couldn't have gotten much worse. They do have some talent here and there in the minors and they have made some decent pick ups (Guthrie, House and Knott) but they still are making dumb singings like Huff, Payton, Bako, Trachsel, so on and so forth so it kind of negates the "improved decision making", right?

Before I get yelled at about guys like Payton, I don't think signing guys like Payton have anything to do with this process. I think he is a placeholder until we have a better option.

Reimold is on the verge of becoming a starting LF. You said it yourself. So why sign Payton for 2 years at 9 mil? Why not sign him at the minimum for 1? And if Reimold doesn't pan out and Payton walks, you can always find the next Payton (they are a dime a dozen) or throw some unproven MiL vet out there like Knott.

He is overpaid, but the expenditure for him doesn't limit us in spending in other areas IMHO so it isn't a huge deal.

He likely won't be moved, so he will be taking up a roster spot next year and that to me is worth more than any amount of money.

I'm not in the business of caring how much money Angelos puts in his pocket. I think the only option besides Payton last year that would represent any sort of real delta in performance would have been to sign Carlos Lee or Soriano, but I don't think either of them were worth what they were paid.

Everyone here knew Payton was going to get you about what he's getting you now. We lobbied for a more defined platoon. Jose Cruz was mentioned and he signed at the minimum. There were other options like Knott. The O's had other options. Jay Payton was not the only option. Thats insane to think that way.

But, hey, maybe I'm insane.

I agree.

Maybe you're the voice of reason who looks at process and doesn't overreact in the face of negative incoming datapoints. Maybe I'm all about results and not process. I would welcome feedback on this question from the board at large. Would you?

I personally think that if you have to explain yourself, then you're already losing credibility. And when you defend the Os like you so often do, like saying "we'd be in the WC hunt IF our bullpen was good" and things like that, it starts to get a little crazy.

It's OK to say that the Orioles are not a good organization because they are not. That is a fact and it can't be disputed. Now MacPhail may perform a miracle this offseason and I hope to god he does.

And if he does, it's going to be by changing the organization's approach to spending money and evaluating players.

[Sports Guy]

Who are you arguing with? Some non-existent mythical person who says our offense is great?

VaTech

You wouldn't pull some stunt like, for example, taking the words of somebody who pointed out the fact that a decent BP would have us somewhere near the WC, and twisting that into them somehow claiming that the O's offense is gangbusters... would you

Not just a decent BP but pretty much the best BP... And in turn, that would mean the best pitching in the AL and then maybe, we compete...The team is clearly not balanced enough.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not arguing that this is a great strategy. It isn't. They absolutely overspent for Payton.

Do you think the 4.6 mil they spent on Payton this year would be banked and used in next year's budget if it wasn't used this year? I don't, but I agree it is up for debate. If you do think so, then your point is completely right. I happen to think it is more of a zero sum payroll for each year. When I was managing engineers, I didn't get to spend an extra 100K next year, but I didn't use 100K of salary budget this year.

If you think the 4.6 mil they will spend on Payton next year is restricting them from going after other guys for next year, than you're right. I don't think it will.

Again, I'm not defending the strategy. It isn't what I would do. I just don't think the Payton is that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. The Bako signing was irrelevant in any scheme. The contract to Baez was a bad use of money and a pretty big deal though.

I agree that they better not use budget as a constraint in their moves this offseason. If they do, I'll be livid.

And this is a big part of your problem...The signing represents a lot more than just pissing away 4.5 million.

[NewMarketSean]

We're 8th in OPS. If you don't think that we can compete with the 1st or 2nd best pitching in the AL and the 6th-8th best offense in the AL, then I know why we don't see eye-to-eye. I think that is our only chance to compete repeatedly.

BTW, you tried to ignore Shack's point, but I have never written that I think our offense if great as is. You keep acting as if I do think that.

Whats your point though? We don't have the 1st or 2nd best pitching. How is this even part of an argument?

[clapdiddy]

Really, I bet we do agree.

1) I think we should trade Tejada - Agreed

2) Try to convince Mora to let us trade him - Agreed

3) Put Huff at 3rd if Mora leaves - Agreed...I'd prefer to deal both, but I don't think we'll be able to.

4) Shop Bedard and Roberts, but don't trade them for less than a great return - Agreed

5) Look to upgrade 1B/DH and back up catcher - Agreed

6) Pick up Millar's option - Agreed, provided he's going to be a part-time player

7) Insert Reimold in LF - Agreed, obviously

8) Sign whichever one of the CF free agents doesn't look ridiculously overpriced - If we can deal Tejada for a combination of a CF and SS, that would be best. If not, I truly wouldn't mind seeing us go after Torii Hunter if we've made some other changes on the roster. That being said, I don't see any FA CF wanting to come here.

9) Find another good bullpen arm or two somewhere - Agreed...and they may be in our system, and I also wouldn't spend a fortune

10) Hold onto our young pitchers like they are gold - I'd trade ANYONE in the right deal...but agree that this is a good way to go.

11) Use the starters that don't make the rotation next spring in the pen - Agreed

12) Let Traschel, Wright, and Benson go bye bye - Agreed

13) Adjust based on what the market and trades bring - Ugh...sounds like "Flannyspeak" to me.

14) Use Knott and House as bench players next year - Agreed

15) Determine if House can perform adequately as the back up catcher between now and the end of the year - Absofreakinlutely!

16) Determine how capable Knott is in the outfield between now and the end of the year - Posifreakintively!

Are we way different?

Hmmm....now that I look at it, I guess we're not that far off.

[Sports Guy]

We're 8th in OPS. If you don't think that we can compete with the 1st or 2nd best pitching in the AL and the 6th-8th best offense in the AL, then I know why we don't see eye-to-eye. I think that is our only chance to compete repeatedly.

The problem is, our defense is likely playing better than it will next year, especially in the IF....Also, we have guys like Mora and Millar, as Drungo pointed out, that are likely to be worse...I expect Tejada(if he is here) to be better all year than he has been this year and i expect Ramon to be better but that isn't a definite.

And read what you are saying...You are saying we need the best pitching to compete....How about we get a top 5 offense and top 5 pitching...I guess i am striving for more than you.

BTW, let's not forget that OPS is down across the league this year. This bodes well for worse offensive teams like us...However, if those OPS numbers go back to last year, we are in trouble IMO.

BTW, you tried to ignore Shack's point

I usually do.